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Implied odds reverse ?

Implied odds reverse ? - Mon Feb 03, 2014, 03:52 PM
shoim's Avatar
Since: Jun 2013
Posts: 180
Hey guys,

So I was reading D. Sklansky Fundamental Theorem of Poker today at work, and in particular implied odds and reversed.
Said, ok, let's try some marginal, speculative hands in the evening, and this hand came up :

I am figuring a shove would've been ok on the turn, representing the king, as I was sure (to a great degree that he was holding a weak Q, or at best A high) - but I was also 100% sure he would hold on to that Q to hell and back, not sure about the A high, unless he hit one of the weak pairs on flop.
But I would like to get opinions on the title topic. I don't have the book at hand, but there was a quote in the book about a similar situation that occurred at 1980 WSOP between the author and another strong pro (I will come back to the topic with the quote).

Shoim o/
Mon Feb 03, 2014, 04:17 PM
TweedleBeetl's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 1,146
IMO this is not a case of reverse implied odds, just a case of you calling with far too poor odds, implied or otherwise.
Tue Feb 04, 2014, 06:52 PM
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
Hi shoim!

It's great that you are reading up on poker strategy, especially by such a great author as David Sklansky and are trying to apply what he says to your game. Any time you try to implement new tactics or new ideas, there will be some getting used to it and some growing pains. I know this because I am having struggles of this sort in my own game at the moment!

When Sklansky talks about implied odds, he is referring to the likely amount of chips you can win from your opponent on future streets if you make your hand. Of course this is difficult to quantify, especially preflop! A general guideline is that with suited connectors, you need your opponent to have 20x the raise size left behind in order to profitably call for implied odds.

Implied odds is normally a concept applied to cash games where stacks are much deeper. In a typical tournament situation like this, you have 35BB and your opponent only started the hand with 17BB. Therefore you are almost never going to get the correct implied odds to call. In this situation, folding preflop is the best play as you will have to hit a spectacular flop in order to be able to continue in the hand, which is very unlikely. Furthermore, there are still three people to act, any of who might go all in.

The flop is very good for your hand, but you still need lady luck on your side to hit, which is why playing such marginal hands with short stacks is dangerous. I don't think you've got the pot odds or implied odds to call this flop bet. However you don't have to fold. You can put your opponent under pressure for his tournament life by moving all in. This way, you ensure you win the maximum possible amount when you hit and you are also likely to get your opponent to fold reasonably often, which will make this all in play profitable in the long run.

As played, calling the turn and folding the river is fine.

In the middle to late stages of tournaments, you shouldn't play suited connectors in a passive way because the stacks are so short. Either fold or when the time is right, raise with them.

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