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25nl Deep - Quick line/sizing check w/ set

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25nl Deep - Quick line/sizing check w/ set - Tue Feb 04, 2014, 04:29 AM
(#1)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Stats

Player6 ( $86.06 USD ) - VPIP: 57, PFR: 34, 3B: 8, AF: 4.0, Hands: 35

Player1 ( $40.12 USD ) - VPIP: 43, PFR: 20, 3B: 5, AF: 1.1, Hands: 35



Villain6 is a fish, and Villain1 seems fishy as well.

I'm not sure what sizing I should be making OTT. I think he'll be extremely draw heavy hence I want to keep all of those hands in.

Thoughts?
 
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Tue Feb 04, 2014, 05:01 AM
(#2)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
Hi birdayy, Nice table you found there!

You made a pretty big raise on the flop and got called. And, V1 looks pretty fishy by his stats as you said. I would bet much larger on the turn. Firstly, his flop call and read demonstrate that he can call a big bet. If he is willing to call a big bet on the flop. There is a good chance he will call another big bet on the turn. Secondly, if he is chasing, we want to get value from him now while he still hopes to outdraw you on the river. Once the river has come he will know where he stands and fold busted draws to a river bet. If he has AK or KQ he is also more apt to call or raise on the river if he thinks you are the one on a draw. You bet less than half the pot on the turn. I would go at least 70% and would consider closer to potsized against an apparent fish.

GL and have fun at the tables!

Roland GTX
 
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Tue Feb 04, 2014, 05:38 AM
(#3)
chuckkky's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 913
Hey Birdayy
Your new Avatar scares the hell out of me
chuckkky
 
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Tue Feb 04, 2014, 06:43 AM
(#4)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
I think your turn sizing is way too small. Like Roland said, you probably won't be getting any value from this guy on the river.

Also by betting so small, you're giving him 3.46:1 on a call, so he's very close to getting the correct pot odds to call with a flush draw. As soon as you add a gutshot straight draw as well into his range, he will be getting the correct pot odds, never mind any money you give him on the river when he hits.
 
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Tue Feb 04, 2014, 09:47 AM
(#5)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Why should we not be giving him the right odds to call?

If we bet say $16 on the turn the pot will be $52 and he'll have $13 behind. We may as well shove turn then instead of going this awkward in between sizing.

Also who's not to say he has a hand like KJ which will call 2 smaller bets OTT and OTR instead of folding to a big bet OTT?
 
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Tue Feb 04, 2014, 09:59 AM
(#6)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Personally I think betting $16 (I would go like $15) is better if we think he's draw heavy since he will pay it now while he's still drawing, and c/f all misses otr. I'm not worried about KJ because I don't think a fish can fold top pair here for $15 + river all in.

Also, given his stats, overbet shoving the turn isn't a bad option. Not to shut out draws, he may actually call off with them. If we feel like we just don't expect him to call with any draws for a shove, then I like the smaller sizings better, but think your actual sizing is too small against draws specifically for the reasons mentioned (again, not caring about KJ, I don't think this guy is folding top pair either way).


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Tue Feb 04, 2014, 10:07 AM
(#7)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
Quote:
Originally Posted by birdayy View Post
Why should we not be giving him the right odds to call?

If we bet say $16 on the turn the pot will be $52 and he'll have $13 behind. We may as well shove turn then instead of going this awkward in between sizing.

Also who's not to say he has a hand like KJ which will call 2 smaller bets OTT and OTR instead of folding to a big bet OTT?
My thinking was that V1 called a larger than normal bet preflop (4.5x). Then he called the half pot bet as well as your larger than normal raise on the flop. Imo, this is enough evidence to demonstrate his willingness to call big bets and to warrant a solid bet on the turn of at least 70%. I would probably have bet closer to potsized myself. It may leave you with an awkward stack, but I think you have a better chance of getting max value on the turn than on the river. It also protects your hand by giving him bad odds to call.
 
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Tue Feb 04, 2014, 06:57 PM
(#8)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
Quote:
Originally Posted by birdayy View Post
Why should we not be giving him the right odds to call?
Fundamental Theorem of Poker.

It's better to try force our opponents to make mistakes, not let them make mathematically correct calls.
 
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Tue Feb 04, 2014, 09:14 PM
(#9)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,359
In pot-geometry terms, you want to bet 1/3 of the effective remaining stack on the turn to set up a "natural" river shove of double the turn bet, so $9.50 isn't so bad. $10.07 would be perfect in this respect, but I certainly see the argument for making it bigger, or even just jamming the turn.


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