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10N SH - 4bet from BB, profitable set mine?

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10N SH - 4bet from BB, profitable set mine? - Tue Feb 04, 2014, 11:59 AM
(#1)
pockettones's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 151
Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players
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CO: $10 (100 bb)
BTN: $10.67 (106.7 bb)
SB: $36.46 (364.6 bb)
Hero (BB): $11.32 (113.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T T
CO raises to $0.30, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1, CO raises to $2.70, Hero calls $1.70

Flop: ($5.45) T 6 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $3.12, Hero raises to $8.62 and is all-in, CO calls $4.18 and is all-in

Turn: ($20.05) 2 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
River: ($20.05) A (2 players, 2 are all-in)

Results:
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Villain is TAG, apart from that not really any reads. In my experience facing 4bets in the bb vs initial preflop raiser is very often KK or AA, I know lots of players prefer to flat with QQ or AK. Do I have to odds to call for a set farm here as he is 4- betting somewhat small? What sort of 4bet size should I fold against and what size should I call, assuming he has only a 4-bet value range?

Last edited by pockettones; Tue Feb 04, 2014 at 12:01 PM..
 
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Tue Feb 04, 2014, 12:15 PM
(#2)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
His 4bet isn't that small really, maybe about 15c less than I would Bo, but big enough.

You don't have the odds to set mine here. You aren't deep enough to call the 4bet as a set mine. If you'd called the initial bet you would have the odds. If a nit/TAG has 4bet you, and all you have is TT, I'd just fold.
 
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Tue Feb 04, 2014, 03:04 PM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
Hi pocket,

Implied odds here are terrible... I recommend 15-1 to set mine, and see no reason to decrease that here being out of position. We have to call 1.70 more so x15 = $19.50... can we win this much? No, there's $3.70 in the pot and he's got 7.30 left in his stack to win later. So in order to profitably call this 4b we have to win a fair bit without making a set, but it seems like we won't be able to do that over all, check/folding a lot on overcard flops and being lost on undercard boards.

TT has too much value vs. a TAG CO open to 3b/fold, we can't 3B/call profitably, and 3B/get it in is not great vs. his probable stack off range, so I think we do much better not 3-betting in the first place in this spot.


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Wed Feb 05, 2014, 06:52 AM
(#4)
pockettones's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 151
what about against a min 4bet? We lose $2 the times we do not make a set, or 87% of the time so on average lose $1.74, but the %13 of the times we hit lets assume we stack him 100% of the time so we make $1.04 (0.13x8), which averages out to -70c which is sill -EV but more EV than folding in which we lose $1 all the time. Does the math sound ok? I know assuming we stack him 100% isn't realistic but against a min 4bet if we stack him even 80% of the time I think it might be slightly more profitable than folding.

Last edited by pockettones; Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 06:56 AM..
 
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Wed Feb 05, 2014, 07:02 AM
(#5)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
Your EV of folding is always zero. It doesn't matter how much you have invested in the pot already, all that matters is the current decision you are faced with.
 
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Wed Feb 05, 2014, 01:40 PM
(#6)
pockettones's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 151
Ah thanks, didn't know that, but was making the point that flatting the min 4bet will lose less money than folding on average given the assumptions I made.
 

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