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EV Question

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EV Question - Tue Feb 04, 2014, 03:32 PM
(#1)
fp_boss77's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 490
Hi, I'm in trouble trying to make some EV calculation here. The scenario is a 3B pot at 10NL where I c-bet. But if I get called, let's assume I just give up and I already loose the pot since I'm bluffing.

Ok, pot is $1.95 on the flop and I bet $1.20.
Let's say the villain calls 40% of the time and folds 60%.
What's the correct EV calculation ?

1)
0.60*(1.95+1.20) - 0.40*(1.20)

2)
0.60*(1.95) - 0.40*(1.20)

In other words, do I use the $1.20 that I bet to calculate EV ?

Cheers!
 
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Tue Feb 04, 2014, 03:37 PM
(#2)
ouchbadbeat's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 347
Quote:
Originally Posted by fp_boss77 View Post
Hi, I'm in trouble trying to make some EV calculation here. The scenario is a 3B pot at 10NL where I c-bet. But if I get called, let's assume I just give up and I already loose the pot since I'm bluffing.

Ok, pot is $1.95 on the flop and I bet $1.20.
Let's say the villain calls 40% of the time and folds 60%.
What's the correct EV calculation ?

1)
0.60*(1.95+1.20) - 0.40*(1.20)

2)
0.60*(1.95) - 0.40*(1.20)

In other words, do I use the $1.20 that I bet to calculate EV ?

Cheers!
nope you dont
example 2 is correct, because you are not winning your own bet, you are winning the pot
 
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Tue Feb 04, 2014, 05:33 PM
(#3)
fp_boss77's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 490
I think number 1 is correct.
But answer me this please. How often must a half pot size bet work to make it profitable to c-bet (assuming that if we get called we always loose).
 
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Tue Feb 04, 2014, 05:44 PM
(#4)
fp_boss77's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 490
I think that number 1 is correct because it's the same as calculating a bluff shoving EV.
 
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Tue Feb 04, 2014, 06:01 PM
(#5)
ouchbadbeat's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 347
Quote:
Originally Posted by fp_boss77 View Post
I think that number 1 is correct because it's the same as calculating a bluff shoving EV.

youre working out the EV of your cbet

if it's number one, imagine you are cbetting $1million into a $1 pot, you're not gaining $600000 EV the 60% of the times he folds...you're earning $1...
 
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Tue Feb 04, 2014, 06:09 PM
(#6)
fp_boss77's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 490
Nope.. when he folds I get the pot PLUS my bet..
Since after you make the bet, the money is not yours anymore..And is after the point you MAKE the bet that EV is calculated.

If you bet $1 million into $1 and he folds you win (assuming that the effective stack is $1 million) and if he calls and you're bluffing you loose $1 million.

But I'd be open to counter arguments lol.
 
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Tue Feb 04, 2014, 06:38 PM
(#7)
ouchbadbeat's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 347
Quote:
Originally Posted by fp_boss77 View Post
Nope.. when he folds I get the pot PLUS my bet..
Since after you make the bet, the money is not yours anymore..And is after the point you MAKE the bet that EV is calculated.

If you bet $1 million into $1 and he folds you win (assuming that the effective stack is $1 million) and if he calls and you're bluffing you loose $1 million.

But I'd be open to counter arguments lol.
there are 2 outcomes

Lose your Cbet
or
Win the Pot

you don't "win" your cbet just like you dont "lose" the pot when he calls

i chose $1million into $1 because it highlights the problem you initially stated - you assume that villain calling always equals a lose and obv villain folding always equals a win

if you had a chance of winning when villain calls you then it'd change the EV

imagine the $1mil vs $1 pot scenario, you and villain both start with $1,000,001.50 and the pot is $1 and you both have $1,000,001 left.

if you bet $1m and he folds, did your stack gain $1m? no it gained $1 and is $1,000,002

if you bet and he calls and you lose, you are left with $1 and villain is on $2m+
 
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Tue Feb 04, 2014, 09:23 PM
(#8)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,363
It's #2.

From my blog on c-betting...

EV = (How much you win * How often villain folds) - (How much you lose * How often villain calls or raises)
EV = (Pot size * fold equity) - (Bet-size * (1 - fold equity))
Fold Equity = bet / (pot + bet)


Quote:
How often must a half pot size bet work to make it profitable to c-bet (assuming that if we get called we always loose).
If you make a half pot bluff, you will break even if villain folds one third of the time.


Bracelet Winner

Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Tue Feb 04, 2014 at 09:26 PM..
 
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Tue Feb 04, 2014, 10:35 PM
(#9)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Quote:
Originally Posted by fp_boss77 View Post
Nope.. when he folds I get the pot PLUS my bet..
Since after you make the bet, the money is not yours anymore..And is after the point you MAKE the bet that EV is calculated.

If you bet $1 million into $1 and he folds you win (assuming that the effective stack is $1 million) and if he calls and you're bluffing you loose $1 million.

But I'd be open to counter arguments lol.
What if the pot was $0.10? By method 1 you, lose $1.20 40% of the time, a net loss of $0.48 per trial. You win $1.30 60% of the time, a net win of $0.78 per trial. This gives #1 a +0.30 EV per trial.

However by #2, you gain 0.10 the 60% they fold or 0.06 per trial. So the EV is -0.42 per trial.

#1 sounds better but will get you broke in the long run. #2 tells us to run, don't walk in the other direction.

Good decisions vis #2
 
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Wed Feb 05, 2014, 02:44 AM
(#10)
ouchbadbeat's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 347
good posts above, ive also come up with a lil chart to show what happens when you make that cbet

the result is expressed in number of chips gained



notice that the cbet is only taken into account if the bet is called, and also the loser of the pot doesnt lose the number of chips in the pot

they will have lost chips on earlier streets, but the act of folding/checking it down and losing does not lose chips in its own right (you can only lose chips by betting/raising/calling and from the forced blinds/antes)
 
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Wed Feb 05, 2014, 10:33 AM
(#11)
fp_boss77's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 490
Now it's clear for me.

Thanks you guys for the insights
 

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