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Equity in All-in Situations

Equity in All-in Situations - Wed Feb 05, 2014, 10:45 AM
KootB's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 59
I play mostly 45 and 90 SNGs, and some MTTs. All very microstakes. Honest assessment is I'm break even player, very recreational. Style is TAG.

Question regards my equity in all-in situations, less than 15 BB. I lose 8/10 of these situations when called, even though when I review hands with Equilab I have 60% or better equity in 9/10 situations. So, I know one can have a bad run, but this seems consistent over 100+ games.

I believe the late stage all-in theory is that if I have 50% or better equity I should push (all else being equal at table), and I do (usually as I say with 60%+). But it doesn't seem to be working too well. Advice? Comments?
Wed Feb 05, 2014, 12:54 PM
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,862
Hi KootB!

When I'm looking to shove in these, I'm looking at my hand equity vs the pot equity, not just what % my hand will win. If my hand equity is higher than the pot equity, then it's a +EV play and I will shove. This will not always mean that I'm at 50-60% to win the hand. It could be higher, it could be lower, but the key is that by having my hand equity be higher than my pot equity, I expect to gain chips from the shove.

What I don't want to do is to wait too long to shove, because then the opps will be priced in for lesser and lesser hands and if this happens, I'll lose much more often, as I expect to lose chips on average (even though I may be the favorite in the hand).

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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