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NL10 SH - Missed value on flush river with top set?

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NL10 SH - Missed value on flush river with top set? - Wed Feb 05, 2014, 04:29 PM
(#1)
pockettones's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 151
Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10, $0.02 ante No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

CO: $25 (250 bb)
BTN: $33.25 (332.5 bb)
SB: $25 (250 bb)
Hero (BB): $13.63 (136.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A A
2 folds, SB raises to $0.30, Hero raises to $1, SB calls $0.70

Flop: ($2.08) 6 J A (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1, SB calls $1

Turn: ($4.08) 5 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.70, SB calls $2.70

River: ($9.48) K (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Results:
Click to show hidden text


Villain is unknown, 33/18 with AF of 0.5 so is shaping out ot be quit fishy. I bet two streets for value and check back the river as I can really only put him on 78 in which he folds or a flush in which I have to bet/fold to a check-raise or just lose money to a call. I think a jack is folding the turn most of the time and with that river I cant see a jack calling either.
 
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Thu Feb 06, 2014, 01:22 AM
(#2)
PSO-xflixx's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,119
(Live Trainer)
This is quite interesting. At first sight I actually liked your checkback OTR, but giving it a closer look I guess we can make good arguments for thin valueshoving here.

You have the which blocks a lot of flushes itself, villain checked river (most recreational players bet at least a small amount from up front when they get there), he could have improved to some combos of KJ/AK and if he is very loose maybe even calls with Ax.

Shoving is superthin here so it really would depend on your impression of the villain and his actios.


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