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10nl fr overpair plus straight flush draw

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10nl fr overpair plus straight flush draw - Sat Feb 08, 2014, 01:43 PM
(#1)
tonydolphin's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 75



I knew I was probably beat here my thinking here is I must be favourite to win the hand. The only card I was worried about is the ace of diamonds. Was I right to shove here to make sure this goes to showdown? Or do I check call the flop and shove the turn.
 
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Sat Feb 08, 2014, 01:50 PM
(#2)
CrazYJohnnie's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 641
Multi way, i would say this is a fold, to check raise here is very strong move by villain, i would probably... dunno, call flop, fold most rivers, either has set or NFD, not really sure which, but most of time i think they do. All you have is an overpair.
And 3bet bigger preflop.

Edit: watched hand until the end, cool that i was right range-wise

Last edited by CrazYJohnnie; Sat Feb 08, 2014 at 01:53 PM..
 
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Sat Feb 08, 2014, 01:54 PM
(#3)
tonydolphin's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 75
So wouldn't you take the amount of outs I had into consideration?

No kudos for the range you put him on. Thats the easy part.


My decision made because of the straight flush draw

Last edited by tonydolphin; Sat Feb 08, 2014 at 01:59 PM..
 
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Sat Feb 08, 2014, 02:14 PM
(#4)
almigthybald's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 94
I would just call his flop raise here, you might give yourself a chance to get away from your hand on some runouts and there is no big upside of shoving here.
 
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Sat Feb 08, 2014, 02:16 PM
(#5)
CrazYJohnnie's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 641
Quote:
Originally Posted by tonydolphin View Post
So wouldn't you take the amount of outs I had into consideration?

No kudos for the range you put him on. Thats the easy part.


My decision made because of the straight flush draw
It heavily depends on villain.

1)If he is capable of doing this with nut flush draw, with Ace of diamonds, then our only out is nine of diamonds, because obviously K makes straight for him.

2)If you think he is doing this only with top of his range, then he is not going to fold too often. I will leave elaborate equity calculations to others.

I am not saying that this is bad play, but if villain is only doing this with top of his range, then he is almost never folding so i still like to fold here. If we combine fold equity+our perceived 9 outs then we maybe get 50/50 spot or slightly +EV or -EV, i don't know. Maybe this is just one of those thin spots, where you cant really say whether this is +EV or not.

All in all if villain is capable of doing this with nut flush draw, then vs his overall range i dont think we do well here. My 2 cents
 
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Sat Feb 08, 2014, 03:08 PM
(#6)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
If he don't flat suited broadways here and always 4bets AK i would shove your 50/50 vs sets.

How do we work out our pot odds here if we shove?

Is it we shove 8.70 to win the pot with what villain will put into to call our shove which is 13.30 giving you 1.5 to 1 on a shove or do you add in the money we shove as well?
 
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Sat Feb 08, 2014, 04:48 PM
(#7)
CrazYJohnnie's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 641
And we obv have nines as outs but yeah, somehow didnt think of them, maybe i was drunk so we could have additional 3 or 4 outs vs NFD or sets thats really 50/50 so i now like shoving more
 
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Sat Feb 08, 2014, 05:15 PM
(#8)
tonydolphin's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 75
I don't think he can have a nut flush here.He can't have AKs,AQs.AJs, or ATs. So that leaves A2s-A9s. With villains still to act after his call I'm not sure he would do this. So he has a set,smaller flush or the dreaded nfd.

So now the question is does he have a set or smaller flush more times than he has the NFD.

Last edited by tonydolphin; Sat Feb 08, 2014 at 05:25 PM..
 
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Sat Feb 08, 2014, 06:27 PM
(#9)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Quote:
Originally Posted by tonydolphin View Post
I don't think he can have a nut flush here.He can't have AKs,AQs.AJs, or ATs. So that leaves A2s-A9s. With villains still to act after his call I'm not sure he would do this. So he has a set,smaller flush or the dreaded nfd.

So now the question is does he have a set or smaller flush more times than he has the NFD.
He can have Ad Kx so it would be much easier to know what your up against if you know how he plays AK pre, i would just 4bet you if i was him especially if your bumping up the price alot vs players min raising pre and folding alot on the flop.

I would be isolating that guy there with a ton of hands i see no reason to flat AK OOP if thats what your doing so i would assume he has a set but seen as i dont know his 3 betting range there could be an argument to just muck it on the flop.

If he is like tight passive you know he has a strong range there and AK will be in it, if he is loose passive he will show you 56s and if he is aggressive i would be much more likely to put the money in on the flop as you did.
 
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Sat Feb 08, 2014, 08:53 PM
(#10)
tonydolphin's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 75
Also if I was to check call the flop and a 4th diamond comes on the turn or the 4th card to the straight, I'm not going to get any value from from worse hands. Surely it's best to get it in on the flop and leave it in the hands of the poker gods.

I much prefer the straight forward hands that don't give me a headache

.

Last edited by tonydolphin; Sun Feb 09, 2014 at 07:59 PM..
 
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Sun Feb 09, 2014, 07:59 PM
(#11)
tonydolphin's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 75
bump
 
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Mon Feb 10, 2014, 06:31 AM
(#12)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
We are flipping here almost always. I mean against sets we are even money, add AdQx, and all AK combos we are at worst 46% underdog. Getting it in is +EV with the dead money in the pot.
 
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Mon Feb 10, 2014, 11:44 AM
(#13)
tonydolphin's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 75
Thankyou geo that is pretty much what I thought,but everybodys comments on this hand confused the hell out of me
 
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Wed Feb 12, 2014, 10:03 AM
(#14)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
If villain flats AQo OOP in a 3bet pot vs an unknowns 3 betting range then he must be looking to flop two pair+ so if thats the case then he might also be flatting all suited aces.

So if he was looking to flop the world multiway why would he raise the flop with Ad Qx on this board its pretty much showdown value seen as ive seen players not even raise there sets on this board.
 

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