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NL $11 FR Reg : 3Betting gutter range vs UTG min raise : HUD stats/reads discussion

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NL $11 FR Reg : 3Betting gutter range vs UTG min raise : HUD stats/reads discussion - Sat Feb 08, 2014, 10:55 PM
(#1)
Marc Rae's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 505
Was looking for some open discussion around instances where 3betting your bottom folding range can be played in a 3bet pot.
It is a play I wouldn't necessarily do a high % of time, but I think the value of being able to pick up a pot with a hand you would normally fold, has it's merits in the right situation.

Specifically focusing on HUD stats, in your opinion, what reads and/or what stats would you be looking at to 3bet in this spot with:

  1. , and with the occurrence villain calls,
  2. What stats would you need to be looking at on further street(s) to be able to take the pot away on a flop? and why?
  3. What bet sizing(s) would be needed?
[I'm able to take it down on the flop]



Villain stats: 270 hands
19/12/13.4/52/0.0
[vpip/pfr/3bet/fold3b/4b range]

10/14/18/20/29/33
[utg/early/mid/co/btn/sb] RFI

The way villain views me:
18/16/26/49/7.1
[vpip/pfr/3bet/fold3b/4b range]

Recent hands played by villain:
-3x raise UTG+1 in the same blind level.

-Min raise from mid pos in the same blind level.
-The hand prior, villain did win a 11K pot.

-Last orbit, BvB, villain min raised from SB and folded to my resteal to 3500 with . But he also folded to another BvB resteal 3 orbits prior.


In this hand, I think the bubble is still probably at least 45-60min. away maybe.

Essentially, if we're able to lock a single key stat (or a series of key stats) to profile those villains (which imo is the tough part) and fully exploit by making a play like this accordingly.. it's an edge I'd like to have.

Keep in context that the direction of this post is that we are 3betting this hand, and not why we should fold it.


Looking forward to some views..

Last edited by Marc Rae; Sat Feb 08, 2014 at 10:56 PM.. Reason: Sorry not looking for evaluation...
 
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Sun Feb 09, 2014, 02:16 AM
(#2)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
The problem with 3betting a utg range is that their range is already so narrow that they won't be folding a large % of their range to a 3b.

When you have a hand as weak as 52o, you can't flop any equity the vast majority of the time.

Also, our value range looks like KK+, so we really don't need to be 3b bluffing for balance that often.

In terms of bluffs, you could possibly put something like A2s or 65s into your bluffing range because it can at least flop some equity.

270 hands in nowhere near enough to base positional 3b stats on either. You need at least a few thousand hands before making these assumptions.

Another thing is we aren't even that deep either, yet another reason pertaining to us not doing this play.

*sigh*

As played, this board hits his continuing range hard. That being said, some of his PP might fold to a cbet, and since we look so strong I think we can cbet 1/3 pot purely because we are getting such a good price on our bluff and it looks consistent with our 3betting range.

If called, give up (like you should have done pre).
 
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Sun Feb 09, 2014, 03:44 AM
(#3)
jokr02's Avatar
Since: Dec 2013
Posts: 82
i am no expert but in my opinion since we have 3 bet the flop i wud bet the flop with 4500 if he still continues i will give up the pot .i wud not 3 bet this villain who is tight he is playing 19% vpip he has everything in his rage to beat us and his fold to 3 bet is low

i wud 3bet a villain who is loose and his fold to 3 bet is high
 
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Mon Feb 10, 2014, 03:58 PM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
Hi Marc,

Firstly, I would echo everything birdayy said. I know you stipulated the discussion not to be on why we should fold it pre, but really we should and it's just too important to dismiss imo. In addition to birdayy's points, there are several good 4b shove stacks behind us... despite the fact that we look strong doing this from UTG+1 we will be exposed and/or look clueless (in a sort of way that will make us targets for future aggression, which is not what we want) if V9, 1, 3, or 6 come over the top and we have to fold. V2 is even worse, him we have to call as we'd be getting over 3-1. At least we'll look like a complete maniac once we table this, maybe we can use that image. V4 shoving gives us 2.3-1, which I think we have to fold to, but makes us look even worse than if the other guys came over us.

As for what type of stats to look for, I would target someone who opens more in EP than in MP, someone who is playing the "UTG is the new button" mantra, but it can be hard to get this read on sample size so you probably won't develop it on pure stats alone except against regs that you face regularly. You'll have to get it by observation. If they are tight in mp but are opening more in EP then get caught with some weak hand UTG or are folding to 3b's in that spot, then you can start to consider that a read without a huge sample of hands imo.


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Mon Feb 10, 2014, 09:23 PM
(#5)
Marc Rae's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 505
Thanks for all the responses so far.


When I played this tourney, I set out in mind to play out of my comfort zone, to play differently than how I normally would. This is not to say I went all stupid, no.. but I did play lag and pseudo-maniac somewhat as you can probably see from my 3bet stats. I did perceive my image to be that way already, but no-one attempted to resist too strongly - which is why I had a stack.


I strongly agree that this is a hand to fold pre flop, and I would normally do so. Agree in general with everything else mentioned also.


The reason why I ended up making this play was because villain had a very strong tell post flop, in a 3bet pot. Although yes, villain is not folding very often to a 3bet, but when he calls and is OOP.. villain has folded 3/4 times to a 30-39% cbet on the flop. I took down that pot with a cbet of 2900.


Now to put into context, if we are trying to spot targets to exploit, let's say stealing blinds. We would want to start exploiting this as soon as we spot this before they adjust or fight back. We may even want to start doing this even after seeing they've folded on their blinds after 1 or 2 times. As we know some villains are fully exploitable in this way, and we can raise junk against their blinds in these instances.


Same thing goes for .e.g habitual limpers... you just want to play raised pots IP with them even after the first time you see limp.


I just thought there may be another stat which may have been suggested which links to this "fold to cbet in a 3b pot OOP" stat or "fold to cbet in 3b pot" in general.. in order to identify this specific tell sooner.


At first instance FlopAF(3b) could be 1 stat for consideration, but if I already have a stat specific as folds flop to cbet 33% in 3bet pot OOP.. but then to be able to spot a trigger to this, in order to exploit it sooner is ideal.


Hope it all makes sense...
 
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Mon Feb 10, 2014, 11:54 PM
(#6)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marc Rae View Post
When I played this tourney, I set out in mind to play out of my comfort zone, to play differently than how I normally would.
Try to play optimally. Not a certain 'style'.

I think playing 'tag' or 'lag' is an outdated concept. You should adapt to the table and play whatever way will be most +EV.

That could include open raising 100% of buttons, limping small blinds because the bb flats everything etc etc
 
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Tue Feb 11, 2014, 12:07 AM
(#7)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
What you're saying about looking to exploit targets and broadening that horizon makes sense, yes, but don't lose sight of the fact that we have the whole table still to act behind us here... it's not just a matter of trying to exploit this guy, there's so many ways it can go pear shaped with these stack sizes behind us.

As for playing style, the best players have always adjusted to the table dynamic and opponents and never play 1 single style all the time. Forcing yourself to LAG it up the whole tourney is not optimal... that being said, if you are unfamiliar/uncomfortable with playing loose aggressive and are forcing it as an exercise, a point of development, that's totally fine (actually it's very good, to walk in LAG shoes for a bit to both get comfortable with it AND to experience first hand how opponents react/adjust, which will help you later see LAGs in a new light when facing them). Just understand it's a growth exercise, and not optimal in the individual events you press this. When you are playing to win an event first and foremost, your best chance is not playing one style, you have to be able to shift gears, adjust to opponents and situations, to maximize your edge. That may include sometimes LAG, sometimes nit, sometimes passive, etc like birdayy said.


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Tue Feb 11, 2014, 12:15 AM
(#8)
Marc Rae's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 505
totally get it, cheers birdayy/Dave
 

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