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2NL zoom AQs, turn decision with nut flush draw

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2NL zoom AQs, turn decision with nut flush draw - Sun Feb 09, 2014, 04:42 AM
(#1)
delta2109's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 285
Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

Don`t have much reads.1st villain opens for 4x and IMO calling IP is good because 4x open is mainly a strong hand and we have a good hand IP, and BB follows. OTF I have TPTK and a backdoor nut flush so I choose to call at least once, and BB also follows which made me very suspicious of his play line.OTT i get nut flush draw and the hell brake loose, 2 all-ins.
Can we ever call here profitably.
 
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Sun Feb 09, 2014, 05:54 AM
(#2)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
Hi Delta,

I like your play up to the turn.

I think deciding whether your should call or not here is a relatively easy calculation of your pot odds.

Let's assume that one of them has a set (straight is unlikely). This means you have 9 outs, or about an 18% chance of making the best hand by the river. You have to call $2.80 to win $5.05, which gives you 1.80:1 pot odds, meaning you need to win 35.66% of the time to break even. This means that if you call you'll be losing money in the long run.

If we assume take the villains' actual holdings (overpair and two pair), you now have a further five outs, but this still only gives you a ~28% chance of winning the hand, so you still aren't getting the right odds to call.

Of course these calculations are complicated by the fact that there will be a side pot and it's multiway, but still I don't think calling here can be profitable.
 
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Sun Feb 09, 2014, 07:08 AM
(#3)
CrazYJohnnie's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 641
36 is The Nutzzz
 

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