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10NL zoom tough spot

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10NL zoom tough spot - Sun Feb 09, 2014, 06:23 AM
(#1)
Sentras's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 122
Here's my spot

Player: small amount of hands

VPIP: 30 3B: 5 aggr:1.8

These stats mean little to nothing I realise that fully.
When holding a flush and straight draw, he played those passively.



Taking that info into account it could very well be 10J on the turn. As who know he might play it aggressively, but to that price and making my set I'm not going to fold.

Then the river big bet had me worried. betting big there makes much sense with 10J as no draw got there so value is from 2pair and sets.
I just couldn't lay my top set down there.

If I think of what his range could be on that river bet:
33 QQ KK QK AQ AK + some bluffs
vs 10J.

9 set combinations. 27 2pair combo's and some bluffs.
there are 16 combinations of 10J.

This might just be a raw range as I can't really tell due small sample.

But concidering he could valuebet
52 combinations and I lose to 16, this call becomes easy? Or am I way overthinking this all?
 
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Mon Feb 10, 2014, 03:57 AM
(#2)
PSO-xflixx's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,119
(Live Trainer)
His line does look a lot like JT and his sizing is very strong OTR. I could see him take this line with a slowplayed 33, but not really wirth KQ as the turncard should scare him more. Given that he only flatted pre and you block two aces already there shouldn't be too many AK/AQ combos in his range so that we can actually narrow it down to 33 and JT. Against that range the river could be a close fold.


Live Trainer



 
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Mon Feb 10, 2014, 04:06 AM
(#3)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
Hi Sentras!

You will need to win about 30% of the time to make calling the river profitable. Against a solid player, I would prefer to fold the river, but against an weak player calling may be ok if we think they may overplay hands like 2p, sets and bluffs in his range. However, the villian called pf, check-called the flop, and check-raised the turn. His line looks super strong. If he is loose-passive, then we can be fairly confident that the A on the turn helped him since he decided to get aggressive. Moreover, he has a decent stack and his bet-sizing looks good. These are indications that he knows what he is doing and is betting for value with a straight or perhaps with a pair and a strong draw with something like K10 clubs or KJ clubs. Since the villain is an unknown, I would give him credit for having what he is repping, a straight or flush, and fold.

GL and have fun at the tables!

Roland GTX
 

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