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25NL - HU questionable thought process

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25NL - HU questionable thought process - Sun Feb 09, 2014, 01:31 PM
(#1)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hey guys, this came from 25NL regular table. The table broke and I checked the 'sit out next blind' option when this spot came up.

Regardless of the hand result which I would probably provide after this hand gets analyzed, I'm looking for a sanity check here with my thought process

99 hands on villain and they are playing 20/14/10 - 10 being their aggression factor and 7% 3bet stat. Surely these stats won't mean too much HU but it should give us a rough idea about our opponent whom I perceive to be a regular who is pretty much aggressive and creative.

Preflop: I'm raising my BTN pretty wide here and A3o is pretty decent to open HU. Villain calls. I think they could be defending fairly well here probably any suited Ace, A7o+, small to medium PPs, lots of broadways, some medium to high SCs, suited one gappers with high cards. They will 3bet us for value with premiums, AQ, AJ, KQs, 99+ and some bluffs maybe with A6o-A2o, Kxs, Qxs.

Flop: I'm betting here for little value against Ax floats, draws and I think my real intention is to pick up the pot right now and fold hands that have significant equity against us with overs. Villain x/raises. Given the preflop action I think there will be a good amount of FDs in their range, 66, 55, 33, some gutshots, A4s, A7, and some random overcards. I still feel we have the best hand here some amount of the time and with an overcard and backdoor NFD I call IP and see a turn.
Estimated x/r range: {A7, A4s, 66, 55, 33, KQs-T9s, KJs-T8s, KTs-J8s, K9s, K8s, Q8s, 98, 97s, 87}

Turn: Villain puts a pretty sizable bet; though it makes alot of sense to bet with sets here but I think that's a very small portion of their flop x/r range and the K is a good card to continue bluffing on.

River: opponent jams pot and I'm thinking its either a very strong hand like sets or a bluff because hands with SD might want to check and now a King might want to check and allow us to bluff with our busted draws.

Insane call down or logical? I let you be the judge


Last edited by geoVARTA; Sun Feb 09, 2014 at 01:36 PM..
 
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Sun Feb 09, 2014, 02:10 PM
(#2)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Nice hand, thats an insanely wide x/r range how can you give him that wide of a range over 99 hands?

So what your saying is his only value hands is 7 combos of sets and 2 combos of KTs that he shoves river for value or does he shove all his Kx combos as well?

If he only shove those 9 combos of sets and two pair and shoves all those draws it would be a snap call? I cant even work out how many draws he would be shoving if thats the case it would take ages it looks like some insanely high variance and i didnt think 25nl players were that insane to shove so many hands.

I guess if he does have alot of air and dont shove all his Kx 1 pair hands as well though it might be a call. How can you even shove enough value hands to balance all those bluffs on the river and not get owned surely they dont even shove that many hands at higher stakes never mind 25nl.
 
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Sun Feb 09, 2014, 10:57 PM
(#3)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
I would call down also.

The turn and river do not interact with his x/raising range much.
 
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Sun Feb 09, 2014, 11:03 PM
(#4)
pockettones's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 151
A lot of his c/r range on flop will be flushdraws and 78. That river shove does look really bluffy I have to say. If he had a set I think he would size it smaller because he wants a call. Definately not a king, KX of hearts is checking this river, really the only king I can see him playing flop turn and river like that is KTh, strong kings will 3bet preflop a lot and doubt they are continuing turn given a c/r on drawy flop getting called, and definitely checking river to showdown. Also possible he has TT. Given his river sizing I'm more likely to think he has a busted draw, you say he is very aggressive and creative so I like this call.

Last edited by pockettones; Sun Feb 09, 2014 at 11:55 PM..
 
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Mon Feb 10, 2014, 04:30 AM
(#5)
PSO-xflixx's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,119
(Live Trainer)
In HU spots there are a ton of different factors making up a decision like that. Some people continue to play their typical 6-max game, others tend to go out of line. You got to evaluate that by yourself based on your impression of playing with villain.

Unwinding the hand I think that c-betting flop could be a very questionable play as there isn't really much value apart from inducing him to get active with semibluffs/bluffs - which in turn with your hand still isn't all that great as it won't hold up that often until the river.

In generel calling with a bluffcatcher against what you perceive a drawheavy/bluffy range of hands doesn't seem unreasonable given that most draws bust and you block at least a set. But I see quite a problem with him turning some hands into bluffs that you don't even beat (K high flushdraws, pair plus straightdraws) and since it's HU he can be flatting wide ranges OOP so that pretty much all 2 pair combos could be in his range - all in all I'm not a huge fan of your line, but the temptation to look like a hero in HU spots against aggressive regs like that is tempting, I know


Live Trainer



 
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Mon Feb 10, 2014, 07:55 AM
(#6)
CannonLee's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 3,418
Quote:
Originally Posted by PSO-xflixx View Post
In HU spots there are a ton of different factors making up a decision like that. Some people continue to play their typical 6-max game, others tend to go out of line. You got to evaluate that by yourself based on your impression of playing with villain.

Unwinding the hand I think that c-betting flop could be a very questionable play as there isn't really much value apart from inducing him to get active with semibluffs/bluffs - which in turn with your hand still isn't all that great as it won't hold up that often until the river.

In generel calling with a bluffcatcher against what you perceive a drawheavy/bluffy range of hands doesn't seem unreasonable given that most draws bust and you block at least a set. But I see quite a problem with him turning some hands into bluffs that you don't even beat (K high flushdraws, pair plus straightdraws) and since it's HU he can be flatting wide ranges OOP so that pretty much all 2 pair combos could be in his range - all in all I'm not a huge fan of your line, but the temptation to look like a hero in HU spots against aggressive regs like that is tempting, I know
Hi Geo,

I agree with Felix's post. There are going to be plenty of combos within the villains range that have a decent amount of equity even if they are semi-bluffing, for instance if they had two overs + a flush draw we would be a dog. Calling the villains check raise on the flop is fine to keep their entire range in the pot... hoping that they check atleast one future street, but there are 16 combos of each of these hands K6 Q6 J6 AThh K9hh etc.. are all hands that they may be capable of bombing the river with, let's also factor in 77 88 99. I'd prefer folding on the turn to save bets for a better spot, we are sitting really deep and generally villains do not get to out of line on these depths.


Hope this helps.


CannonLee



Quintuple Bracelet Winner

 
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Mon Feb 10, 2014, 08:10 AM
(#7)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Thanks guys! Villain's line looked really awkward as I figured some hands would look to x/c turn or x/c rivers specifically hands that had SD value but would unlikely get called and cant bomb the river for value with just 1 pair. I put my shades on, pulled on my hoody and called. villain shoved river with JTo Woooot! I think they kinda turned their hand into a bluff which I think they would have done the same had they not caught OTR. Any thoughts on villain's line?
 

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