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5NL FR - top set facing flop overbet shove

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5NL FR - top set facing flop overbet shove - Mon Feb 10, 2014, 12:07 AM
(#1)
simonrdr's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 437


No reads on villain.

QT or T7s are of course in his shoving range here, but does the range include enough of lower sets, J9 T9 type hands to make this a profitable call?
 
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Mon Feb 10, 2014, 12:57 AM
(#2)
pockettones's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 151
Do you know how many tables villain was playing? I always assume a one or two tabler is a weak player. Dont think we can fold top set, he will have a lot of 88, 99, 89 and he could also be spewing with tx. if He has T7 or TQ cooler I think. Even if he has a flopped straight we have a pretty decent bit of equity with our FH outs.(35%). Given we are paying $4.17 to win 6.92, we have to win 38% of the time to break even, so this is a definite call.

Last edited by pockettones; Mon Feb 10, 2014 at 01:14 AM..
 
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Mon Feb 10, 2014, 04:20 AM
(#3)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
simonrdr

Facing such a big overbet on the flop is often a sign of weakness from weak players. Solid players normally would not risk value owning themselves. So with top set, two cards to come and no flush draws I think you can call this profitably. I expect you will see overpairs, QJ, lower sets, AJ, A10, 2p quite often. And as pokcettones mentions, even if he has a made striaght, you will improve to a full house often enough to make calling the best choice.

GL and have fun at the tables!

Roland GTX
 
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Mon Feb 10, 2014, 04:24 AM
(#4)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
I think pockettones has nailed this very well. Even if villain turned over QT/T7 before you made your decision, it's pretty close pot odds wise. The actual calculation is you need to call $4.17 to win $6.42 (villain has shoved for a bigger stack than we have), so we need to win 39.4% of the time to break even.

If he ONLY has QT/T7, you have 35.18% equity, so you'd have to fold. However, just including ATs into his range bumps your equity up to 39.52%, making it a profitable call.

I think villain's 3Bet shoving range is going to be much wider than this, potentially lots of different Tx and definitely lower sets that we crush. It's also not impossible for villain to turn up with a stupidly played AA here.
 
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Mon Feb 10, 2014, 07:23 AM
(#5)
simonrdr's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 437
Thank you guys!
Turns out villain had flopped a straight with QT but I did river a boat! I wanted to make sure my call was good since I wasn't the favorite against his holding but I knew his range could be wider.
 

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