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The Big 11 : set on river vs small baller : extracting max value

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The Big 11 : set on river vs small baller : extracting max value - Tue Feb 11, 2014, 10:43 PM
(#1)
Marc Rae's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 505
I've gone through hands villain has played (67), and during game it was clear he plays small ball pots. I've only seen him go showdown (4) times, and (2) times were shoves where he lost (1) and won once. The other (2) times were with me.


He is limping near 100% pots he enters. His bet sizing is always very small 25-30%. Sometimes even 20-23%, even in multiway pots, but never goes to show down. Villain is choosing a c/c flop, fold to turn bet line or folding on the flop facing a bet. Or Villain is betting out on flop, and if there is a villain who sticks around he double barrels, and opponent folds. All villain's bets are less than 30% in those 17 pots he's played.


The first hand played to SD is below - how he played KK from the BB.



Villain stats:
24/2/0.0

Limp Call 75% (4)
Limp Fold 25% (4)

Fold flop cbet, 50% (2)
Call flop cbet, 50% (2)
FlopAGG, 16(8)
TurnAGG, 60(5)
RiverAGG, 50(2)

Villain would see me as:
16/15/21


With the hand being reviewed, I don't doubt that he is betting river here on any made flush (unlikely imo, if he would thin value 2nd pair here), and his bet on the turn is 1 pair. With villain's check back on the river, I am sure he has showdown value... so with this type of villain, I want to extract as much as I can, with any range (Kx, or off chance he has checked back TPTK, KQ) he is c/c calling as a bluff catcher.





Since villain calls with 55% pot with KT, should I be jamming this river instead.. in order to be bombing rivers or earlier where I can enter pots with him to take him off top pairs or weaker (later in the tourney) VS getting chips when he is calling (right now), given that he is not giving away chips freely.

If there is an argument for the latter, would you agree 700 was probably the max value I was going to ever get him to call with TPGK here?


Thanks...

Last edited by Marc Rae; Tue Feb 11, 2014 at 10:47 PM..
 
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Wed Feb 12, 2014, 12:05 AM
(#2)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Hi Marc,

Didn't look at the first hand but reading through I was guessing high VPIP and low PFR pre flop and betting minimum flop for the cheapest showdown.

When I scrolled down and saw the stats, well just what I was thinking. Don't know how Aggression factor looks but if he has something he bets small on all streets. Which gives a price for opponents sometimes with draws.

Here it's different, villain limps you iso and then check through on the flop. So the turn lead out looks like a top or second pair. Then immediately gives up the lead on the river. One stab and give up?

What will he pay on the river? If sticky to a Qx, AJ/AT you got the best maybe more from a AQ, Kx. All he sees is maybe the run out clubs and you got the best call as you are not bluffing a flush.


He call mucked so we can see?

Last edited by ForrestFive; Wed Feb 12, 2014 at 12:20 AM.. Reason: he mucked so.. and action typos
 
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Wed Feb 12, 2014, 01:01 AM
(#3)
bungakat's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 41
Hey Marc
I think limping with 55 preflop would be better play, this is because Villain2 is limp/calling so often and you aint hitting sets so often to be raising this. Also Villian seems to be call happy player who dont give up. So if you limping with 55 here, there is also more players in pot and if you hit your set and Villain2 hits anything you will get paid of anyways. At river you just have to think from what you want to get called by? If you think Villain2 calls 700 bet with 66-JJ/Qx/Kx and you want get value from these hands then you should be betting 700. If you want get value from Qx/Kx and think in that case he will pay more then 700, like 1000 then should be betting 1000. But as played i think at river betting 700-1000 is fine and i think Villain2 will be having Qx alot of times and will be paying aroud 700-1000.
About first hand - When antes comes in play, i would be doing minraise instead of 3x open or 2.5x but not bigger. I think this kinda of player will be rarely 2 street bluffing so i think you should be folding AT at river.

Cheers
bungakat
 
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Wed Feb 12, 2014, 02:06 AM
(#4)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
I also think limping 55 is better than isoing.

You should iso with high cards because they make better pairs on various boards.
 
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Wed Feb 12, 2014, 04:15 PM
(#5)
ChewMe1's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 574
Hi Marc Rae

I think iso raising in this particular spot isn't in our best interest because of our stack size. 24 big blinds is not by any means a short stack but with the ante's being as they are we're going to build a relatively bloated pot very quickly.

55 doesn't play very well post flop and we're not going to get it to showdown very often so we ought to be betting almost every flop. When we iso raise somebody we do it because we're taking advantage of their passiveness, we do it because they're likely to fold to our c-bets more often than not.

The problem you have is that if you c bet the flop and get called/raised/shoved, then you have to fold and you're going to be left with around 15 big blinds, so for this reason alone I think that limping pre would be best.

As played I think your river bet is fine If we knew that he had top pair then sure I think that over shoving the river would be best but at this stage of the hand I'm likely to believe that he doesn't have much and for that reason I like your bet sizing.

Cheers, Chris.

Last edited by ChewMe1; Wed Feb 12, 2014 at 04:21 PM..
 
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Wed Feb 12, 2014, 08:56 PM
(#6)
Marc Rae's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 505
Not sure why the cards don't show, but villain had KTo.


And cheers for the responses guys.


------------


From what I read, the underlying theme here is to have limped 55. And with my stack at 24BB, there isn't a lot of room to move post flop. Add to that 55 doesn't flop big, enough of the time. Agreed.


My concern here is that, by limping behind, and at this stage of the tourney (compared to the first few levels), I'm opening up to be raised with action still left behind me. And raise/calling with this stack and holding, I'm not doing. Limp/folding to a raise behind is a situation I try to avoid altogether. Open folding 55 here is worse than limp/call raise imo, vs this type of villain.


Isolating villain IP was the compelling reason to avoid these situations from happening.


I don't think my image at the time was too out of line prior, to expect a 3bet when I iso'd. This was the first opportunity I had to iso villain actually.


I think skipping the cbet is OK if villain is likely to call. Not that I would do so with this villain, but I do check back flop with TPTK, etc as well some of the time.


When I'm playing small pockets, with this stack, I'm not playing to hit the set. The plan here when I called the turn bet was to shove the river if checked back vs this villain, who is avoiding playing big pots. Which is why I directed the question shoving vs value betting when I hit the river.
 

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