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$11 10K Reg : AQ vs v.strong reg iso/4b : early stage stack off decision point

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$11 10K Reg : AQ vs v.strong reg iso/4b : early stage stack off decision point - Wed Feb 12, 2014, 09:29 PM
(#1)
Marc Rae's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 505
So this was a hand where I have some history with, and coupled with the fact that there was a whale at the table playing 93%+ hands.


The hand prior to this, ended up with showdown with villain 8 and 9. Villain 9 isoing with AJ. Villain 9 is a winning multi 6 figure reg. Although my hand history is limited with 170, there is no doubt he is opening up even wider than AJ here. 4bet range is 9.4.


Villain 9 since start of tourney played 13 of 14 hands. Stats 93/29/0.


When villain 9 4bet's here, and if you knew villain 9 to be strong player -many levels above yourself- would you take a flip (if you thought you were flipping) at this early stage considering his 4bet range is balanced and likely has more bluffs in his range here + more than likely isolating villain 8 very wide again. essentially risk of busting vs doubling up and crippling a strong player, in a regularly scheduled tourney.


I don't think calling the 4bet is ideal, as it leaves me exposed to be exploited later. Even though I may have position on him most of the times, I think once I fold leaving me with 2K behind, villain 9 will still be able to put max pressure or put me in difficult situations regardless.


 
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Thu Feb 13, 2014, 12:38 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
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Hi Marc!

One question for you.. how does the opp perceive us? The reason that I ask is that since the opp is obviously a thinking player, this is something that I also need to take into account.

With AQ, I get a limp, then a raise to 135, which is larger than a normal raise to 3BB+1BB for each limper. With a smart opp, I'm going to 3-bet here, but I need to size it correctly. With the original raise being larger than normal, I don't want to be 3-betting small here. I need to 3-bet to the upper end of 3X the previous bet and a pot-sized raise. I'm going to choose to 3-bet to 400.

By sizing this at 400, if the opp does come over the top, they're going to know that they're playing for my entire stack if they 4-bet and a smart opp will only be doing this with the top (value) part of their range. They're not going to be doing this with their lower end because they will be forced to show their hand down if I call.

While AQ is behind against even a 9.4% range, it's crushed by the top end of it (say the top 1/3, which is what the opp will want to 4-bet and showdown). Against this range, I'm a 2-1 dog and will basically have half of the chips in the pot, so it's a -EV play for me... even larger -tourneyEV as the chips would go to a much better player.

With sizing it at 400, if the opp comes over the top, I'm done with the hand as it will be one that they want to go to showdown with. If the opp is at the lower end of their range, they'll fold to my larger 3-bet as they won't want to have to go to showdown with trash and ruin their table image.

By 3-betting small, it says weakness to them and that I'm going to probably fold to a 4-bet.. which will make them get the chips in on a 4-bet with their entire range, as it's a +EV play since my range will be wider and weaker... sticking me in a spot that I don't want to be in.

For me, calling the 4-bet is not even an option here, as it would pot-commit me, so I would have to shove, and there are too many hands in the opp's 4-bet value range that have me dominated. Even if I hit the flop, I'm most likely behind.

Taking all of this into account, I'm making a larger 3-bet and then folding to a 4-bet as the opp's value range crushes my AQ.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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Thu Feb 13, 2014, 01:00 AM
(#3)
Marc Rae's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 505
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post

While AQ is behind against even a 9.4% range,

Hi there John, you mean ahead right?


strong reg would see me as:
22/21/12/100/0
vpip/pfr/3b/fold3b/4bet range
 
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Thu Feb 13, 2014, 01:08 AM
(#4)
Marc Rae's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 505
just as a side q john, what if antes are involved, what sizing are you opting for here?


say that stack sizes are relative, ie. we are deep.


thanks...
 
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Thu Feb 13, 2014, 01:27 AM
(#5)
Marc Rae's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 505
Appreciate the write up John, thanks.


I haven't considered sizing to the extent you explained, where I essentially fold out the bottom end of villain's range. Moreso pre-ante stage. Of course this is in context that I don't know the extent of his 4b bluff range also, as we don't have that dynamic. And of course, this (sizing) will only work with the kind of level of that villain.


But it then opens the q, if that villain doesn't perceive me to be on that level, then wouldn't it seem as if my 3bet iso is polarized? which is not necessarily what I'd want, especially if he will opt to use his 4b bluffs, which villain may opt to do if my 3bet had been to the sizing as per the replayer.


hope it makes sense..

Last edited by Marc Rae; Thu Feb 13, 2014 at 01:31 AM..
 
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Thu Feb 13, 2014, 10:55 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marc Rae View Post
just as a side q john, what if antes are involved, what sizing are you opting for here?


say that stack sizes are relative, ie. we are deep.


thanks...
Antes or no antes, my sizing will still be on the upper end of between 3X and a pot-sized raise... but the antes will up what a pot-sized raise will be.

If I'm deep... that changes EVERYTHING because then nobody will be pot-committed. The deeper I am, the easier folding to a 4-bet is.

John (JWK24)


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Thu Feb 13, 2014, 11:03 AM
(#7)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marc Rae View Post
But it then opens the q, if that villain doesn't perceive me to be on that level, then wouldn't it seem as if my 3bet iso is polarized? which is not necessarily what I'd want, especially if he will opt to use his 4b bluffs, which villain may opt to do if my 3bet had been to the sizing as per the replayer.


hope it makes sense..
The opp's 4-bet bluffs are still going to be very, very strong hands. They will be the lower part of the 9% range.. so his bluffs will be 88-TT and a bunch of broadway combos. The problem here is that I'm flipping with the bluff end of his range and I'm crushed by the top end of it... there is very little in his range that I'm a real favorite against.

One key stat that the opp will be looking at is your fold to 4-bet stat. If it's low, the stronger their range will be. The higher that it is, the more of the lower end of their range, they'll 4-bet.

The problem here is that by 3-betting small, my range would be so wide that the opp's entire 4-bet range is now in play. By using the larger sizing, my 3-bet is going to be much more toward the value end of my range.

John (JWK24)


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Sat Feb 15, 2014, 12:03 AM
(#8)
Marc Rae's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 505
Thanks John and apologies for the delay. In general I do agree and understand what you mention.


I think if the situation slightly changes, and if we had been at the table longer... it would be obv. that strong reg was isolating limp villain every pot he entered, and could 4betting more than usual vs another villain behind him.. knowing that everyone is trying to play HU with limp villain. Then at this point, strong regs' 4bet range would be highly skewed past 9.4% imo.


If this dynamic does happen, I'd be inclined to not polarize my 3bet sizing here.
 

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