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NL5 Zoom Botom set river question

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NL5 Zoom Botom set river question - Fri Feb 14, 2014, 09:20 AM
(#1)
A Beatmaker's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 74

Vilain unknown but playing on mobile device so more likely recreational. I gues on river i did two mistakes first of all i should call because when raised more likeli i gona be caled by two pairs caught backdors flushes and higer sets. Second mistake after 3bet i shoulded fold ?
 
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Fri Feb 14, 2014, 10:10 AM
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rkleefstra's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 2,328
I think your biggest error is slowplaying your set OTF and OTT. Raise OTF will be called by lots of hands your villain can have. Same OTT
 
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Fri Feb 14, 2014, 03:55 PM
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spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
Don't slowplay your big hands! You only lose value and allow your opponent to catch up for cheap. Especially against recreational mobile device players who typically don't like to fold, just fast play and watch them stack off with AK or two pair.

This board texture hits villain's UTG raising range very hard and also contains straight/flush draws that a looser opponent may have. Raising the CBet will get value from so many worse hands here. The same applies for the turn.

The river is a tricky spot now because you've slowplayed and the board has suddenly become even wetter. Because your hand is so under-repped, I think you should just raise all in on the river and expect to get called by AK or two pair more often than hands that beat you. Calling is of course a safer option, but I think shoving is likely more +EV.
 
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Sat Feb 15, 2014, 04:32 AM
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A Beatmaker's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 74
Quote:
Originally Posted by spand42 View Post
Don't slowplay your big hands! You only lose value and allow your opponent to catch up for cheap.

This board texture hits villain's UTG raising range very hard and also contains straight/flush draws that a looser opponent may have. Raising the CBet will get value from so many worse hands here. The same applies for the turn.
Thanks for the review

I agree that i should raise vs recreational player but I see a lot of problems raising set vs regular player. Firstly we bloating pot for 6combos of beter sets end reg folds TPWK combos with ones are 47% of his C-Bet range and we loosing value from then OTT. So i made same simplified calculations:

6 combos are beter sets (AA,QQ) so ve stacking off 6 times even 8 combos of FD drow will improves on later streets(about 38% time so its 3 combos) and I wont get value on the river from missed 5 draws i will be stacked with caught ones. Also Top pair and two pair combos will call raise and will fold on turn and i guess getting folds from weak aces (AJo, ATs A9s) with are near half off all his "value" range.

Lets say Regs opening range in UTG is 22+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, 65s+, AJo+, KQo. He bets with TP, draws, gutshots, backdoor draws and so on and checks with Second or midlle pairs.

Aour beting tree plan (for sake of simplicity) is OTF we have 6BB pot Villain bets 4BB and we raise 12BB he cals or folds OTT we bet 24 in 30BB pot he call or folds on the river 78BB pot we shove 61BB he call or fold.

6 combos of set (AA,QQ) Vilain calls 3streets -100BB = -600BB
8 combos of FD (KJs KTs 65s-JTs ) 38%Times he hits OTT/OTR we get stacked -100BB= -300BB
8 combos of FD (KJs KTs 65s-JTs ) 62%Times he miss and folds river +39BB= +195BB
21 Combo of TPTK or Two pair (AK AQ) call flop raise and folds on turn +15BB= +315BB or +819 (if call OTT)
27 Combos of TPWK (AJ, ATs, A9s) folds to flop raise +7BB = +189BB
27 Combos of bacdoor gutshot or mised cards fold +7bb=+189BB
__________________________________________________ ____________
Sum -201BB per 158 combos so its -1.3 BB per hand. Or if he call on turn bet with TP and 2pair because he thinking that i have FD we have +303BB or 0.5BB per hand


Lets look at other plan we caling down if he cheks we bet 2/3. OTF 6BB he bets 4BB we call OTT 14BB he bets 9 we call OTR 32 he bets 22 we call (76 final pot). If he cheks we will bet same amount that he woul beted the on situation deppends he folds or calls once.

6 combos of set (AA,QQ) Vilain bets 3streets -38BB = -228BB
8 combos of FD (KJs KTs 65s-JTs ) 38%Times he hits (3combos) OTT/OTR -38BB = -114BB
8 combos of FD (KJs KTs 65s-JTs ) 62%Times he miss (5combos) and x/folds river +16BB = +128BB
21 Combo of TPTK or Two pair (AK AQ) 3streets of beting +38BB = +789BB
27 Combos of TPWK (AJ, ATs, A9s) Bets two street and lets say AT-A9 x/f OTR = +432BB
24 Combos of bacdoor gutshot or mised X/folds OTT +7BB = +168BB
3 Combos he hits his weak draws Vilain bets 3streets -38BB = -114
__________________________________________________ ______________
Sum +1061 per 158 combos 6.7BB per hand. if he call with AJ on river +1325 BB or 8.4 BB per hand




Of course its simplified sometimes we hit Full house/quads when caughts his draw sotimes his two pairs improves to better Full house sometimes he may shove with nut flush draw + gutshot or bet on river with busted draw and so on. And hes opening range may not be exact . But its for overall clearer situation view. So I don't see why we should not slow play bottom set vs reg. Maybe my reg model is wery bad? O maybee i should change in bet size somthing to make aggressive line more profitable? I guess then plan is to chek behind on river if i raise FLOP vs REg if OOP C/F but even then +5.5 BB per hand.

Last edited by A Beatmaker; Sat Feb 15, 2014 at 05:19 AM..
 
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Mon Feb 17, 2014, 10:08 AM
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spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
It's great that you've analysed your play in such detail, this will definitely help to build up your intuition and knowledge. I'll try address some of the points you made.

Quote:
Originally Posted by A Beatmaker View Post
Lets say Regs opening range in UTG is 22+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, 65s+, AJo+, KQo.
I think this is quite a bit wider than most regs would open from UTG, but this isn't a big deal.

Quote:
Originally Posted by A Beatmaker View Post
Top pair and two pair combos will call raise and will fold on turn and i guess getting folds from weak aces (AJo, ATs A9s) with are near half off all his "value" range.
The only two pair that villain can have is AQ and I don't think he's ever going to fold that on the turn. He might also call your flop raise with AK and spike two pair/trips with that also.

I think your calculations are interesting. When you're plugging the numbers for the reg, I assume you've adjusted his starting stack to 100BB? Because this villain only started with 70BB. Also there's too many scenarios which you haven't taken into account, which you acknowledge.

I think your numbers about him hitting the flush draws are particularly off. I don't see why you always have to get stacked if the flush draw comes in and even if the flush draw does come in, you can make a boat about ~20% of the time, where you will win his stack, which makes a huge difference to your final EV totals.

Also in your calling down three streets line, I don't think a good reg will give you three streets with AK, which is a relatively large part of his range. Also, I think a good reg might bet really big with AAA or QQQ on the river if the board bricks out, because you are going to be folding all your missed draws regardless of sizing and you're going to call with 333 or some of your two pair combos, particularly if you rivered a two pair.

However I think your analysis has demonstrated an interesting principle. If you have an aggressive opponent who is likely to fire bluffs or value bet thinly, then playing passively is often a good line to get value. Against recreational calling stations, bet/raise with your strong hands.
 

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