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25NL - turn line with set on 3 diamond board

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25NL - turn line with set on 3 diamond board - Mon Feb 17, 2014, 07:09 AM
(#1)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
We are up against two unknown opponents OTT. Bet/fold or check/call?

Here's what I think are advantages and disadvantages of each line.

. When we bet we can still get called by worse: T9, Tx with a diamond, maybe also a hand like AT without a diamond would also call. But we were up against two opponents OTF so I think their might be more FDs as opposed to being HU so maybe betting turn might be too thin?
. When we bet and they raise we are folding as the odds of us making a boat by the river are slim.

. When we check/call OOP we get to see a river but maybe not showdown as they would probably bet the river too some amount of the time.

What's the best line against two opponents OOP? what if we were HU? And if we were IP instead for both cases?

 
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Mon Feb 17, 2014, 10:19 AM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi George,

My personal preference is to bet, for a couple reasons. Firstly, there are many opponent holdings that could benefit from receiving a free card, and if we check we are offering a free card without ever receiving one ourselves when we need it (I assume no better hand will check it through). Second, I think our barreling should be weighted towards value hands in this type of spot, if we take sets out of that range we are now only barreling flushes largely which is such a small part of our over all range. We might bet/fold some overpairs but if we are going to have a check/call range, like the Ad that doesn't want to get raised off our hand multi-way, we can protect that by check/calling some overpairs. I don't particularly care to protect my weaker check-calls with a set of 6's when there are a lot of worse villain hands that can give us value, especially when top pair didn't change and villain with top pair, especially when the side cards is a diamond, is probably calling again.


Also, I think pre-planning to bet/fold is too rigid. There are bet/calling scenarios here. For example, if we bet $5 and V6 clicks it to $10, we'll be getting 4.8-1 immediate/6.1-1 implied to draw to the board pairing. If we bet $8 and V6 moves in, we'd be getting 3.9-1 to call and have priced ourselves in. Even feeling certain only a flush raises us, we may still bet/call depending on sizings.


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Mon Feb 17, 2014, 06:21 PM
(#3)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Thanks Dave for the reply. I bet 4.77$ OTT, V5 folds, and V6 makes it 9.54$ We have like 10 outs to improve and we are getting 4.9:1 to our call. I get you would call here? What's the plan OTR when villain has 7.24$ left?
 
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Mon Feb 17, 2014, 09:46 PM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
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My river plan is to win the pot when he checks it down.

Seriously, if we check and he shoves, the pot will be huge and we'll only have to be right 17% of the time to break even, so there's a decent margin of error for calling and folding is somewhere on a spectrum between slightly correct and a huge mistake. If the plan is to check/call, it's probably better to bet ourselves, since he might opt to check down hands like T9 or AdTx, but the pot is so big he'll probably pay off with those.

If the river were a 4th diamond, I think we can check/fold fairly comfortably then (and fully expect to win vs. T9 as most players will simply check that down rather than bet on a 4 flush board).


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Mon Feb 17, 2014, 11:48 PM
(#5)
MaTaKazer's Avatar
Since: Jan 2014
Posts: 19
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
My river plan is to win the pot when he checks it down.

Seriously, if we check and he shoves, the pot will be huge and we'll only have to be right 17% of the time to break even, so there's a decent margin of error for calling and folding is somewhere on a spectrum between slightly correct and a huge mistake. If the plan is to check/call, it's probably better to bet ourselves, since he might opt to check down hands like T9 or AdTx, but the pot is so big he'll probably pay off with those.

If the river were a 4th diamond, I think we can check/fold fairly comfortably then (and fully expect to win vs. T9 as most players will simply check that down rather than bet on a 4 flush board).
Are you referring with respect to Geo's plan OTT which is bet/call the min raise when you say you would rather shove the rest of the money in yourself than x/c on ATC not a diamond?

Would villain call with worse when we take this line which seems quite strong.
 
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Tue Feb 18, 2014, 12:40 AM
(#6)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MaTaKazer View Post
Are you referring with respect to Geo's plan OTT which is bet/call the min raise when you say you would rather shove the rest of the money in yourself than x/c on ATC not a diamond?

Would villain call with worse when we take this line which seems quite strong.
On the river, yes... we are getting a good enough price to call a river shove if we check (without reads, easy fold if the villain is a nit), so if we are willing to call then it becomes a matter of which line earns us more value, c/c or bet.

I think we can disregard flushes in the consideration... villain will move all in with all flushes if we check, and will call all in if we bet, so it doesn't matter what we do when he's got us.

What about worse hands? AdTx, T9, etc. I think those are more likely to call a bet than bet themselves. Yes our action looks strong but the pot is gigantic and the bet is small relative to it. I also think he's unlikely to show up with bluffs in this spot, because he can't expect us to fold much for $7 more into a $40 pot.

Hopefully that makes some sense... if we are going to pay off flushes anyway, we'd like to make sure we maximize value against worse hands as well so try to take the line that gets more value from the worse hands. Either line is ok here, but I think AT/T9 and funky played overpairs are slightly more likely to call than to bet for us.


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Tue Feb 18, 2014, 01:45 AM
(#7)
aznhaxor's Avatar
Since: Jan 2014
Posts: 234
Too many abbreviations... Can someone explain me OOP, OTF, OTT, IF, HU and FD?
 
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Tue Feb 18, 2014, 02:05 AM
(#8)
MaTaKazer's Avatar
Since: Jan 2014
Posts: 19
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
On the river, yes... we are getting a good enough price to call a river shove if we check (without reads, easy fold if the villain is a nit), so if we are willing to call then it becomes a matter of which line earns us more value, c/c or bet.

I think we can disregard flushes in the consideration... villain will move all in with all flushes if we check, and will call all in if we bet, so it doesn't matter what we do when he's got us.

What about worse hands? AdTx, T9, etc. I think those are more likely to call a bet than bet themselves. Yes our action looks strong but the pot is gigantic and the bet is small relative to it. I also think he's unlikely to show up with bluffs in this spot, because he can't expect us to fold much for $7 more into a $40 pot.

Hopefully that makes some sense... if we are going to pay off flushes anyway, we'd like to make sure we maximize value against worse hands as well so try to take the line that gets more value from the worse hands. Either line is ok here, but I think AT/T9 and funky played overpairs are slightly more likely to call than to bet for us.
It comes down to 2 option OTR then since x/c is definely not the most +EV play.

Donk shove the rest in ourself
X/F river.

It's pretty close imo, but I am more inclined with x/f as like you said in villain perspective he wouldn't have much fold equity. I don't think the average villain at 25nl is capable of thin value betting hands they think might have a fair chance of being ahead of. T9, weirdly played JJ+. Mostly would just check behind.

Also, the chances of villain taking the turn min raise line with less than psb stack behind with hands like AdTx T9 JJ+ is pretty weird.

What do you think?
 
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Tue Feb 18, 2014, 09:25 AM
(#9)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
I was actually thinking in MaTaKazer's terms too. Especially when the hand was played 3 handed and both call the flop so atleast one of them must be on a FD right? that's what I was thinking. Also their turn min raise looks super strong but as Dave suggests we are getting the right odds to draw to a boat OTR and they could possibly be raising with a T9 so if the the river goes x/x we are gonna win against T9 but probably losing to all flushes when we don't make a fullhouse obviously.
 
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Tue Feb 18, 2014, 09:26 AM
(#10)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Quote:
Originally Posted by aznhaxor View Post
Too many abbreviations... Can someone explain me OOP, OTF, OTT, IF, HU and FD?
OOP: Out Of Position
OTF: On The Flop
OTT: On The Turn
IP: In Position
HU: Heads Up
FD: Flush Draw
 
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Tue Feb 18, 2014, 02:20 PM
(#11)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
I agree with your line of thinking, and if we feel fairly certain villain only moves the last $7 in with a flush then no price, regardless of how fantastic, is good enough and x/f is good.

The difficulty I'm having though, in x/f for $7 into a $40+ pot, is that I have to be pretty confident, and I'm just not given our perceived range. As played our hand looks a lot like an overpair with a diamond (in fact we would likely play overpairs with a diamond exactly this way).

So yes, AdTx probably just checks down, but we've all seen stranger things.

T9 may will shove for value on blanks. So may 33. Not saying their line with these holdings would be good otf and ott necessarily, but most players aren't very good and make lots of mistakes and weird plays based on their own brand of poker logic. In that same vein we can't fully rule out some terrible hopeless bluff like Ad8x/Ad7x. Which, I suppose, isn't all that terrible in retrospect if we are discussing x/f a set of 6's. But we have no read on them, so they none on us, and no reason to expect we can make this big a laydown in a massive pot for $7 more.

There's enough doubt in my mind that I'm willing to chose the action that, if a mistake, is a small mistake (losing $7 more instead of folding the best hand in a $40 pot). Maybe that doubt is a mistake, but at least I think it's not a big one if so.


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Fri Feb 21, 2014, 12:41 PM
(#12)
aznhaxor's Avatar
Since: Jan 2014
Posts: 234
Thank you for your explanation
 

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