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50NL 6-Max: 44 oop with btm set

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50NL 6-Max: 44 oop with btm set - Tue Feb 18, 2014, 02:51 AM
(#1)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
This hand is from a regular 50NL 6-Max table. I'm a bit unsure about the whole hand to be honest. The raiser is a solid TAG multitabling reg. The big blind is a solid, very aggressive reg shortstacker who just joined the table.

Preflop I am happy set mining against the raiser, but am unsure if this is wize with such an aggressive 3b happy player in the bb. Perhaps I should be willing to fold small pairs in this spot? I don't want to 3b against the raisers strong ep range at any rate.

I flop bottom set, but the board does offer flush draws. The villain had a c-bet of 90% so I opted for a check-raise and sized my bet on the heavy side to discourage his chasing a draw. Any thoughts on his range when he calls? What range is he puttin me on (overpair, flush draw, set)?

The turn makes the flush possible. I assumed he would fold most non-flush hands if I bet, or worse raise with something like Aclubs Q. So I intended to check-call the turn. When he checked I thought there was a good chance he didn't have a club.

On the river, I wasn't sure of the best line. Do I lead out hoping he will call with hands that would check the hand down, or do I check hoping it will induce a bet intended to get me to fold? I have never gotten out of line against the villain, so I didn't expect a check-raise on the river to ever get called by anything I was beating.




Thanks!

Roland GTX
 
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Tue Feb 18, 2014, 03:38 AM
(#2)
pockettones's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 151
If bb likes to squeeze a lot this is a great spot for him to do it so its a fold with 44 imo. On that board I would strongly put you on 89 and flush draws, and sets. Guess villain put you on a draw given he flats with ace high, I would put him on TJs+ and ATo, flush draws, some unbelieving 88, 99 and ofc JJ+. Turn is a scare card for his pairs so I like the check as its hard for him to call with worse, and I guess it will allow lighter river calls. I probably would have value bet river expecting the non-flush part of his range to check back, really didn't see that AQ coming lol.
 
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Tue Feb 18, 2014, 01:05 PM
(#3)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
I am glad you posted this hand. There is a lot of room for constructive criticism in this spot .

Quote:
Originally Posted by Roland GTX View Post
The big blind is a solid, very aggressive reg shortstacker who just joined the table.

Perhaps I should be willing to fold small pairs in this spot?
Yes, you should be. Calling here out of the small blind with 22-66 is quite marginal to begin with. As stacks get deeper among you and the initial raiser, but also the big blind, this will become a clearer call, assuming the initial raiser will still pay you more than they should the times you flop a set.

We have a hand that can't take pots away postflop with semi-bluffs. As a result, we need to make a hand very often or to get paid very much the times we make a hand.

Having a short-stack who we a) can't win very much against the time they overcall (ie can only win 20$ not 50$) and b) will negate our seeing a flop a substantial % of the time, even if its 12%, that's 12% of our opportunities to flop a set taken away just like that, as opposed to say 6% from a more conservative three-better. This is enough to make this a fold in my estimation.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Roland GTX View Post
but the board does offer flush draws.
The board offers flush draws and straight draws, but villain doesn't have many of the latter or even the former. If they are tight then they are probably not opening 68s or even 56s in MP. Moreover, its hard to flop a flush draw.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Roland GTX View Post
The villain had a c-bet of 90%
how does this
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roland GTX View Post
so I opted for a check-raise
lead to this?

So to be clear, why would premise A: Villain has high c-bet % lead to conclusion B: we should check-raise. ?

It seems like the opposite should be true. If villain is firing here all the time, they are firing with a weak range, all their misses, or almost all. Moreover, 90% flop c-bet shows that they can be aggressive postflop. If we check-raise now, we don't give some of those aggressive misses a chance to fire again on the turn. When we check-call the flop, we ensure those aggressive c-bets see the turn. Moreover, hands we fold with a check-raise (as opposed to a check-call) are drawing dead or near dead. Any two broadway cards A through J, whether QJ or AK, needs running cards to beat us. So check-calling and keeping them in the hand isn't a big risk factor. Because we have them crushed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Roland GTX View Post
and sized my bet on the heavy side to discourage his chasing a draw.
Two things, you check-raise 2.50 to 6.50. I would not characterize that as heavy. 2.50 to 8.00 is where heavy begins, it seems to me. Maybe I am just misusing your adjectives .

Secondly, less quibbling, villain is never not chasing a draw in this spot. Villain never is, nor should, folding a flush draw or a straight draw like 89. Our mentality is not to encourage or discourage, but to set a price for and value bet villain's continuing range when we check-raise, or in general make the highest EV play. When we check-raise we shouldn't expect any size 5.00 to 8.00 to fold a draw, ever.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Roland GTX View Post
Any thoughts on his range when he calls? What range is he puttin me on (overpair, flush draw, set)?
I would say this is about right. Given you are a TAG yourself he might just see it as JJ, AT, sets, and flush draws. It is unclear whether he will be discerning enough to know you cannot flat 89s much less 56s in this spot preflop.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Roland GTX View Post
The turn makes the flush possible. I assumed he would fold most non-flush hands if I bet, or worse raise with something like Aclubs Q. So I intended to check-call the turn. When he checked I thought there was a good chance he didn't have a club.
Assuming you meant spade I think this is incorrect. If villain has KsKx, AsAx I don't see why they would not check through the turn some amount of the time, maybe often. AsTx is another hand with which they would continue versus your check-raise, always checks the turn.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Roland GTX View Post
On the river, I wasn't sure of the best line. Do I lead out hoping he will call with hands that would check the hand down, or do I check hoping it will induce a bet intended to get me to fold? I have never gotten out of line against the villain, so I didn't expect a check-raise on the river to ever get called by anything I was beating.
You are right that check-raising river is too ambitious to be called by worse.

I think we need to bet for value here. Checking means we never fold versus a bet. By checking turn himself villain forwent the possibility of getting stacks in on the river with a single bet, therefore his combinations of flushes are quite limited, heavily diluted. Also by checking turn villain indicates they are looking to get to showdown, typically.

Let's take a look at a few non-flush types of hands for villain:

-- overpairs KK/AA
-- one pairs like AT/JJ
-- 89hh type air


The overpairs like KK/AA (and it turns out a weird TPTK AQ) can value bet themselves, but they aren't guaranteed to. If we bet river, they will almost always call. So if we do the betting ourselves we guarantee the money goes into the pot.

The one pairs like AT/JJ, well this point is even more salient. These hands always check back this river, or for all intents and purposes always. But they can call a bet. So we should value bet them.

The nine-high air hands like 89hh would have taken the opportunity to represent spades on the turn very often by bluffing themselves. They don't comprise much of villain's initial range anyways and they comprise much less of his showdown happy river range. So checking to get bets from these is of basically no consideration.


So overall I like a preflop fold and a flop check-call. We can check-raise a turn like the Qh and check-call a turn like the Qs. Sure we are going to get drawn out on by As sometimes on the turn that actually came. We are still maximizing our expected value by check-calling given the opponent profile. When we have a set our goal is not to win the pot as often as possible. It is to win the most money we can. Just as when we call with a small pocket pair we are not trying to win as often as possible, we are trying to make as much money as we can.

The times a hand like KJ end up running us down are rare compared to the times we get huge value from them. They are more likely to turn or river a pair then they are to backdoor us and get paid (we are check-folding a four spade runout, for example). Moreover on a ton of turns we can still stack aces.

I don't mind the river play as played but I would rather we lead out and get value from a range which rates to check back with hands that call a bet and bets hands that would call a bet anyways.
 
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Tue Feb 18, 2014, 01:15 PM
(#4)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
As it happens I have no idea what villain is doing in this hand. Their river bet is very sketchy and their flop call is a large, egregious mistake. Hopefully their mother does not see that they called your check-raise here without a spade in their hand and two overcards. If she gets a hold of this hh surely this player will be forced in to poker retirement.
 
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Tue Feb 18, 2014, 01:16 PM
(#5)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
If this does not get ATLEAST a 100 views then imo members are missing out on a ton of information!
 
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Tue Feb 18, 2014, 01:18 PM
(#6)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Quote:
Originally Posted by GarethC23 View Post
As it happens I have no idea what villain is doing in this hand. Their river bet is very sketchy and their flop call is a large, egregious mistake. Hopefully their mother does not see that they called your check-raise here without a spade in their hand and two overcards. If she gets a hold of this hh surely this player will be forced in to poker retirement.
ROFL
 
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Tue Feb 18, 2014, 01:28 PM
(#7)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
Wow! Thank you for the thorough reply Gareth. I've printed it out and will keep it with me for the next week and see if I can absorb all the points.

Thanks for the education

Greg
 
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Tue Feb 18, 2014, 03:03 PM
(#8)
rez71's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 115
Definitely good info. Seen myself in that spot a few times.
 
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Tue Feb 18, 2014, 03:21 PM
(#9)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
Excellent analysis. Some really good points in there about how to be exploit this situation.

Same hand, if posted on 2+2 would often get replies of 'pot/pot/shove AINEC' or the like.
 
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Wed Feb 19, 2014, 02:57 AM
(#10)
pockettones's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 151
The most detailed analysis I've ever read, this will really help me in how to think through hands
 

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