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fold turn w/ 16 outs?

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fold turn w/ 16 outs? - Tue Feb 18, 2014, 04:09 AM
(#1)
NaturoSasuki's Avatar
Since: Dec 2013
Posts: 348
no info, reg table, though i have 16 outs its only 32% on turn... and to call his overjam i need 55%... so would u call that turn?

 
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Tue Feb 18, 2014, 07:41 AM
(#2)
666bonez187's Avatar
Since: Oct 2012
Posts: 745
depending what u think he has u would have more outs then that... if they had aces it would be nearlly a flip, however it would still be a -ev play to call
 
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Tue Feb 18, 2014, 08:21 AM
(#3)
braveslice's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 568
To call you need:
total money in the pot: 1.10+1.53+1.53 = 4.16
to call: 1.53
pot odds: 1.53/4.16 = 37%

One possibility to his range:{88+,KQs , Q9s, AhQh+},
where you have 47% to win and so calling is ok.

If he is tight player who doesent like his nut flush draws, you need to fold.

Last edited by braveslice; Tue Feb 18, 2014 at 08:30 AM..
 
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Tue Feb 18, 2014, 10:15 AM
(#4)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
You actually need 36.78% equity to make the call not 55% like braveslice calculated.
Why are we donk betting the flop against two opponent with MP? Is this a value bet? Can we get called by worse? Is this a bluff bet? Can we fold out better? Not all clubs are clean out because sets are in their range and a club that pairs the board is going to win him the hand when they have a set. Since clubs are the highest number of outs here then that fact alone should have us fold their turn over shove.
 
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Tue Feb 18, 2014, 11:06 AM
(#5)
braveslice's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 568
I did not calculate 55 36.78 is rounded to 37%

Last edited by braveslice; Tue Feb 18, 2014 at 11:09 AM..
 
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Tue Feb 18, 2014, 12:07 PM
(#6)
NaturoSasuki's Avatar
Since: Dec 2013
Posts: 348
Quote:
Originally Posted by geoVARTA View Post
You actually need 36.78% equity to make the call not 55% like braveslice calculated.
Why are we donk betting the flop against two opponent with MP? Is this a value bet? Can we get called by worse? Is this a bluff bet? Can we fold out better? Not all clubs are clean out because sets are in their range and a club that pairs the board is going to win him the hand when they have a set. Since clubs are the highest number of outs here then that fact alone should have us fold their turn over shove.
i m not happy how i played it, should have just x-call flop... but since turn gave me outs i ended up calling though i knew i have like those 30% and need 55% ... not close enough :O , so this was very bad play i guess?

btw i donked flop to trying to be tricky if he just calls etc... cuz its so live flop , i couldnt know he haz big handz ... but still im so unhappy with how i played
 
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Tue Feb 18, 2014, 01:04 PM
(#7)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
no braveslice, you said 37% not 55%. NautroSasuki says 55% which is wrong you need 36.78% But yea I think I prefer x/c flop alot more because we actually don't want to get raised on the action flop.
 
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Tue Feb 18, 2014, 01:41 PM
(#8)
NaturoSasuki's Avatar
Since: Dec 2013
Posts: 348
Quote:
Originally Posted by geoVARTA View Post
no braveslice, you said 37% not 55%. NautroSasuki says 55% which is wrong you need 36.78% But yea I think I prefer x/c flop alot more because we actually don't want to get raised on the action flop.
oh now i see, silly me i forgot to add 1.50 , so y 37%, so its nice call isnt it? now am happy with that
so my outs vs set: , Q Q Q, 7 7 7 ---> 16 outs ---> 32% on turn

btw is it so horrible to call w/ 32% when i need 37% or 35%?

btw would u like reraise jam all-in by me on flop?
 
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Wed Feb 19, 2014, 05:49 AM
(#9)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
If we have 32% equity and we need 37% then we are probably -EV so yes its bad
and nope re-raise jamming will get the money in without fold equity; I think you are overestimating your equity here. Try to play around with PokerStove and Flopzilla and see against different ranges how our equity looks like its a good exercise away from the table! GL!
 
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Thu Feb 20, 2014, 01:53 AM
(#10)
NaturoSasuki's Avatar
Since: Dec 2013
Posts: 348
Quote:
Originally Posted by geoVARTA View Post
If we have 32% equity and we need 37% then we are probably -EV so yes its bad
and nope re-raise jamming will get the money in without fold equity; I think you are overestimating your equity here. Try to play around with PokerStove and Flopzilla and see against different ranges how our equity looks like its a good exercise away from the table! GL!
i know wut r my % against all handz, i just was curious if its good as semibluff,semijam u know? but y if i think about it i know im never ahead
 

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