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10NL ZOOM 67s in the CO OOP SHOVE OTT

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10NL ZOOM 67s in the CO OOP SHOVE OTT - Wed Feb 19, 2014, 12:51 PM
(#1)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Not sure if this turn shove is correct. I don't know what the villain is representing with this turn bet. With the bet sizing it seemed like AQ, AJ, AT because of his passive stats. Now that I look at the hand. I think it should have gone as follows: BC,XC,XF

Let me know your thoughts!

Villain (21): 24/14/1.0
 
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Wed Feb 19, 2014, 02:22 PM
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CaRLoS_DZ87's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 184
BronzeStar
Min reraises from loose-passive player in my experience normally are strong made hands. I think he is more likely to have 9x than a strong A, he definitely could play a big A like this and maybe some better flush draws but less likely. Check-raising is the worst play IMO on the turn, don't think he is ever folding anything. I don't know if we have good implied odds to call with that almost pot size bet, given that its not the nut flush, Jc a T are not clean outs. If he is passive as you said he is never betting river with Ax and he will be scared to bet trip 9's, so you would probably have to donk shove and hope to get paid by worst when you make your hand. So I am more inclined to fold turn.

Last edited by CaRLoS_DZ87; Wed Feb 19, 2014 at 02:25 PM..
 
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Wed Feb 19, 2014, 02:52 PM
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dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaRLoS_DZ87 View Post
Min reraises from loose-passive player in my experience normally are strong made hands. I think he is more likely to have 9x than a strong A, he definitely could play a big A like this and maybe some better flush draws but less likely. Check-raising is the worst play IMO on the turn, don't think he is ever folding anything. I don't know if we have good implied odds to call with that almost pot size bet, given that its not the nut flush, Jc a T are not clean outs. If he is passive as you said he is never betting river with Ax and he will be scared to bet trip 9's, so you would probably have to donk shove and hope to get paid by worst when you make your hand. So I am more inclined to fold turn.
Carlos, I agree with the min reraise. However, villain pots it OTT on didn't reraise PF so I can exclude nut hands (AA,A9,99,98) imo. Here's what I can put the villain on for a range:

Board: 9sAc9c8d
Equity / Win / Tie
31.39% / 31.09% / 0.31% { 7c6c }
68.61% / 68.30% / 0.31% { QJs, JTs, AQo-ATo, K9o, Q9o, J9o, T9o }

OTT we're getting just over 2:1 to make a call. So we need 33% equity but we're OOP. I guess this villain type is never folding Ax or 9x if I xc turn, shove r... but yeah I'm not sure how to play this spot. Maybe call OTT IP? I'll reveal what the villain had after the review. SPOILER ALERT: If I check shoved AK here I would have won.

Last edited by dirt eh; Wed Feb 19, 2014 at 04:26 PM..
 
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Wed Feb 19, 2014, 04:33 PM
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geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi dirt eh

Preflop and flop are okay, though I think we can get away with a smaller cbet size as anything that is folding is probably folding to a 0.40$ or even 0.37$. the extra 0.05 won't get more folds imo.

Now that we get minraised OTF our semi bluff did not work and I am very cautious about drawing to the non-nut FD on a paired board and that's because our outs are not entirely clean if they have 9x although the chances of seeing a third 9 when two are on board are slim, its still there and they can call preflop with all sorts of 9x. From 98s to A9o. Also, Ax is there and what I am trying to reach at is that when they bet the turn so big we have little to no FE and shoving there is going to burn money.

Let's put the category of hands that call preflop and raise flop with:
. TP: AQo-A9o, AQs-A2s
. Trips: K9s, Q9s, J9s, T9, 98
. Quads: 99, rarely we see slow played AA
. FDs: KcJc, KcTc, QcJc, QcTc, JcTc, Jc8c, Tc8c
. Pure bluffs: endless

OTT their bet sizing is significantly large and I think at this point pure bluffs are not in their turn betting range after we have called their flop raise which our preflop and flop action represent atleast Ax for a made hand or a FD.

so the hands we see by the turn are 92.2% TP+ and our shove would intend to fold better FDs for the remaining 7.8%. Since there is no fold equity here it's like calling an all in shove from our opponent OTT with 26% equity. So in scenarios like these us shoving with a combo draw is not a value shove which means we need to also rely on our fold equity which we have none in this case - us having a draw is generally something we fall back on when our semi-bluff does not work and they call and we can still hit outs to win. So we should be folding to this turn size.

Last edited by geoVARTA; Wed Feb 19, 2014 at 04:36 PM..
 
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Wed Feb 19, 2014, 04:56 PM
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dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Thanks geo! Villain had AQo.
 

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