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Top set 300bb deep.

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Top set 300bb deep. - Fri Feb 21, 2014, 08:47 AM
(#1)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485


Villain is 20/16 VP/PFR

Just wondering what do you think of my turn x/r and then im not sure what im sposed to do vs BB overbet jam on turn.

I dont know what he was snap jamming on the turn i think i would bet call alot of my hands and check back alot as well so i really dont know if he can even ship 2 pair here or not and i dont even know if he will raise his flopped sets either so as you can see im playing a guessing game here.

Even if i bet the turn and price all his draws in or he raises i would be coming back over the top, so im not sure if we can actually fold seen as i took a line that looks much stronger than betting turn and he still shoves.

I really doubt he ever shoves some sort of draw so the question is does anyone think he can do this with worse then top set.
 
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Fri Feb 21, 2014, 08:56 AM
(#2)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
He never has AA, so we are looking at KJ, TT or 55. If he'd really bad he could have AQ (unlikely because blockers) or AT.

Vs that range we have to call off.

The problem with x/raising the turn is that i'd assume it's almost always for value. You should always think about what bluffs you can have in a certain spot. If you can't have any then it's very transparent and good villains can play almost perfectly against you (folding AQ etc)
 
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Fri Feb 21, 2014, 09:17 AM
(#3)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
Well, you don't have top set on the turn, which is where you stack off.

Given the action though, I don't think it changes too much, as I think he 3bets you pre-flop with AA so it is unlikely he has AA for top set.

He seems quite taggish, at least pre, and if that carries through to his post-flop play then I think we are in a pretty horrible position here. He can do this with TT/55 and of course the unlikely AA. Does he do it with AQ/QT which seem to be reasonable calling hands pre? I doubt he would shove those hands in this way. I doubt he shoves any draw for this much money playing so deep.

KJ is the nuts on that board, I guess it boils down to whether you think he can do it with wider than that, and I certainly think at 5NL that people can do it with worse sets. I dont know if I could find a fold but I think we probably should.
 
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Fri Feb 21, 2014, 10:53 AM
(#4)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Quote:
Originally Posted by birdayy View Post
He never has AA, so we are looking at KJ, TT or 55. If he'd really bad he could have AQ (unlikely because blockers) or AT.

Vs that range we have to call off.

The problem with x/raising the turn is that i'd assume it's almost always for value. You should always think about what bluffs you can have in a certain spot. If you can't have any then it's very transparent and good villains can play almost perfectly against you (folding AQ etc)
What bluffs can i have on the turn though?

If i was to x/r something like Kxss i would be doing it to fold out hands but on that turn if he bets i cant see him folding much unless he likes floating the flop and betting the turn with complete air.

Or if i knew villain would bet call two pair and Ax with a gutter but fold a river bet i could do it then?

I think my range is face up when i bet the turn anyway and it would be even more face up when i 3 bet his turn raise so if he was ranging me and he knows i wouldn't 3bet two pair or bluffs if i took the turn barrel line and he raised he would know his 55 was no good and when he has TT he would have to hope i have 55 to call it off anyway plus i can have AA.

So if he knows my range to 3bet the turn after barreling the turn then every time he would come over the top i would be crushed as he would call TT fold 55 and fold TT on the river when i ship.

I was close to folding the turn but i just couldn't because i have no idea if he looks at the board looks at all those draws see he has two pair and ships without a care for what my raising range looks like.

Why do i get all these spots im forever running the near tip top of my range into the nuts i honestly cant think of a set that has holded when all in even though i do and can fold strong hands i dont just stack off any two pair or what ever and im still getting owned a ton at showdown, all i do is scoop a ton of small pots and a ton of 3bet pots on the flop but when that river comes im crushed way to often.
 
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Fri Feb 21, 2014, 11:01 AM
(#5)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
I think that is the point birdayy is making, you can't really have bluffs on the turn, so if you are raising for value, and the villain has a marginal hand (Relative to the board/your image etc.) then he can fold, but, if he has the nuts, HE can raise YOU for value knowing that you have to have a real hand and it will be difficult for you to fold. He can play perfectly, fold worse/raise better.

I didnt read all of your post, so if I misread or missed that you were already aware of that, apologies.
 
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Fri Feb 21, 2014, 11:25 AM
(#6)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
If you take this line, you just have to understand that you are going to be exploitable. It's a pretty terrible spot to bluff, which means at higher stakes you can't take this line with your really strong hands.

I know now that if you x/raise the turn with initiative I can fold AQ. This is a terrible outcome for you.

Your hand is not face up if you bet turn. You can have a much wider range than x/raising.

You could have; AA, KK, QQ, TT, 55, AK, AQ, AT and a lot of spade combos which you chose to barrel flop with.

I would continue betting the turn, which lets us call a raise and reevaluate the river. When we x/raise we open ourselves up to another round of betting, allowing us to make a disgruntled call off.
 
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Fri Feb 21, 2014, 11:33 AM
(#7)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Here's the line that I would take with this hand.
OTF: bet larger 0.30-0.35 looks good to me. Note that we are multiway!
OTT: I don't like checking here. I'd bet around 0.60 and let the villain decide to raise us not XR the villain. If we're raised, we can put him on KJ but we can also put him TT when we take this line. So when he raises our turn bet we need 34.57 percent to continue. As long as we are getting those odds, I like even a little more because we are OOP, we should call.
OTR: We check no matter what and see what the villain does.
 
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Fri Feb 21, 2014, 11:44 AM
(#8)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Quote:
Originally Posted by bhoylegend View Post
I think that is the point birdayy is making, you can't really have bluffs on the turn, so if you are raising for value, and the villain has a marginal hand (Relative to the board/your image etc.) then he can fold, but, if he has the nuts, HE can raise YOU for value knowing that you have to have a real hand and it will be difficult for you to fold. He can play perfectly, fold worse/raise better.

I didnt read all of your post, so if I misread or missed that you were already aware of that, apologies.
Yh i can understand that and if thats true that you cant raise any bluffs on the turn then i should have no raising range at all if villain knows what hands i raise the turn with but i dont know what villain knows so i want to get some money in the pot and im pretty sure he would bet call AJ, and two pair with spades even if he did know i only raised sets+ on the turn.

So would the correct play vs someone who knows my turn raising range be to raise to get calls from those type of hands i posted above and to fold if he shoves but then to fold i would have to know that he knows 55 TT is either a fold to my raise or a call to fold the river and i would need to know that he isnt capable of taking a hand like KTss and blasting me off QQ.

My guess is if anyone is good enough to know that i would bet folding those hands then they would move me off my hand alot and then i would have to work out that there doing that to not get exploited and start calling them down.

Does that make sense? Cant believe im trying to convince myself that QQ is a fold though surely it should be a fist pump get it in.
 
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Fri Feb 21, 2014, 11:52 AM
(#9)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Quote:
Originally Posted by birdayy View Post
If you take this line, you just have to understand that you are going to be exploitable. It's a pretty terrible spot to bluff, which means at higher stakes you can't take this line with your really strong hands.

I know now that if you x/raise the turn with initiative I can fold AQ. This is a terrible outcome for you.

Your hand is not face up if you bet turn. You can have a much wider range than x/raising.

You could have; AA, KK, QQ, TT, 55, AK, AQ, AT and a lot of spade combos which you chose to barrel flop with.

I would continue betting the turn, which lets us call a raise and reevaluate the river. When we x/raise we open ourselves up to another round of betting, allowing us to make a disgruntled call off.
Yh your right and thats the line i normally go the stack sizes played apart in why i went for a x/r but what i ment was if i bet the turn he raises and i come back over the top i would have the same range i x/r with in this hand so would you just call if he raised your turn bet?


I know now that if you x/raise the turn with initiative I can fold AQ. This is a terrible outcome for you.

Yh thats my bad for not giving 5nl villains enough credit for laying down top two, no more x/r that turn it is then.
 
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Fri Feb 21, 2014, 12:00 PM
(#10)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Quote:
Originally Posted by dirt eh View Post
Here's the line that I would take with this hand.
OTF: bet larger 0.30-0.35 looks good to me. Note that we are multiway!
OTT: I don't like checking here. I'd bet around 0.60 and let the villain decide to raise us not XR the villain. If we're raised, we can put him on KJ but we can also put him TT when we take this line. So when he raises our turn bet we need 34.57 percent to continue. As long as we are getting those odds, I like even a little more because we are OOP, we should call.
OTR: We check no matter what and see what the villain does.
And if villain shoves river what are you doing then?

And cheers for posting everyone i can see my turn x/r butchered this hand now.
 
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Fri Feb 21, 2014, 12:06 PM
(#11)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Quote:
Originally Posted by dirt eh View Post
Here's the line that I would take with this hand.
OTF: bet larger 0.30-0.35 looks good to me. Note that we are multiway!
OTT: I don't like checking here. I'd bet around 0.60 and let the villain decide to raise us not XR the villain. If we're raised, we can put him on KJ but we can also put him TT when we take this line. So when he raises our turn bet we need 34.57 percent to continue. As long as we are getting those odds, I like even a little more because we are OOP, we should call.
OTR: We check no matter what and see what the villain does.
Why did you decide to turn your hand into a bluff here? Makes no sense to do this. You're destroying all your equity in the hand the way it was played. In the hand it looks like you are representing KJ. I feel like you just bet your set and see how the villain responds.
 
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Fri Feb 21, 2014, 12:14 PM
(#12)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Quote:
Originally Posted by mike2198 View Post
And if villain shoves river what are you doing then?

And cheers for posting everyone i can see my turn x/r butchered this hand now.
Ok... I don't see the villain shoving this river. He'd be shove twice the pot.

Here are the river spots:
VS SHOVE: Obvious spots, we boat up/quad up we call. If the board doesn't pair OR BDF card comes in we fold.
VS BET: We boat up/quad up we shove over his bet. If the board doesn't pair villain bets half pot to pot you can make a case for calling if he's aggressive (6.0 aggression factor or higher). If he's passive it's a fold. And if BDF comes in we fold.
 
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Fri Feb 21, 2014, 12:35 PM
(#13)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Quote:
Originally Posted by dirt eh View Post
Why did you decide to turn your hand into a bluff here? Makes no sense to do this. You're destroying all your equity in the hand the way it was played. In the hand it looks like you are representing KJ. I feel like you just bet your set and see how the villain responds.
I didnt think i was turning my hand into a bluff i thought i could get him to bet call with worse and then i wasnt sure what to do vs his shove and just went with it because i wasnt sure if he would shove two pair.
 
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Fri Feb 21, 2014, 01:43 PM
(#14)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Quote:
Originally Posted by mike2198 View Post
I didnt think i was turning my hand into a bluff i thought i could get him to bet call with worse and then i wasnt sure what to do vs his shove and just went with it because i wasnt sure if he would shove two pair.
Ok... In my opinion, you don't want to do this when you're so deep. There's an argument for doing this when we are 100bb effectively but I still don't like it even 100bb deep. At 100bb deep, I see the play going something like this OTT, you bet and if he raises, it could be to protect a 2p type hand or with the nuts, and then you shove over him if you feel like.

Players won't be shoving 2 pair into you here when you're 300bb deep or calling over your shoving with worse EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A SET OF Ts.

Just my opinion.

Last edited by dirt eh; Fri Feb 21, 2014 at 02:08 PM..
 
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Fri Feb 21, 2014, 02:53 PM
(#15)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Quote:
Originally Posted by dirt eh View Post
Ok... I don't see the villain shoving this river. He'd be shove twice the pot.

Here are the river spots:
VS SHOVE: Obvious spots, we boat up/quad up we call. If the board doesn't pair OR BDF card comes in we fold.
VS BET: We boat up/quad up we shove over his bet. If the board doesn't pair villain bets half pot to pot you can make a case for calling if he's aggressive (6.0 aggression factor or higher). If he's passive it's a fold. And if BDF comes in we fold.
Rethinking OTR:
Horrible card would be an ACE. Here's my line when Ace pairs the board.
VS SHOVE: I think I call, depends on what I think he has OTT
VS BET: No idea... depends on the size. might RF, might just call. Never folding though.
 
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Fri Feb 21, 2014, 07:09 PM
(#16)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
I think a lot of stuff has been covered already.

I'm in full agreement that x/r turn isn't optimal. Your hand is far more face-up when you x/r after having the initiative compared to just barrelling, which you could and should be doing with a variety of value hands and bluffs/semi-bluffs.

One further point that I don't think anyone has made yet is that allowing the villain to pot control by checking back when he's floated the flop with either a random Ax or something like AJ/AT/A5 or stuff like KTss that's just picked up a flush draw would also be a bad result for us 'cos we'd miss a lot of value.

As played, I agree with birdayy's first post that a lot of villains might also play TT/55 like this, especially once the A drops, which means you have to call the shove.
 
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Sun Feb 23, 2014, 10:18 AM
(#17)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Guess with poker there's so many different ways of playing, and stuff, and maybe this turn spot is right on the line or something?

And sometimes in these kind of spots, maybe it can be interesting to weigh the alternative? Anybody else agree?


Was just thinking that mike's check-raise on the turn looks so strong, that someone with a lesser set might tend to be worried about KJ (or even AA), and choose to just call so deep.

And one reason someone might choose to shove with the nuts rather than slowplay is because he might have been thinking a shove stood a good chance of getting called?


Can understand if people think a fold would be a mistake though ... since nobody else has said they'd fold in this spot, versus a villain with those stats


Tough spot I guess ...
 
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Sun Feb 23, 2014, 11:01 AM
(#18)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
Sorry I have been a bit slow to post here.

All the problems with this hand stem from the turn check-raise.

There is no justification for it. Sorry to be blunt, but there is no scenario that this will be the best play or a better play than bet/calling turn.

Let's draw up villain's flop calling range. Many AX? AT/AQ, we block the latter. Maybe some AJs as well.

What about KJ? 16 combinations. That is a lot of combinations. J9s as well.

TX? KT/AT/JT/T9. Lots of that.

This card scares the weakest portions of villain's range and strengthens other parts of it. For a significant slice of their total turn range when you check, they are ahead of you.

When you check the turn to them, they check back a ton of hands you crush and bet two pairs and KJ.

Why then would you check-raise versus this betting range? We see the problem occurs one step before the "tough decision." The discussion of whether to call or fold versus the shove is not material to improving your play. It really is not, you shouldn't waste any more time with it.

Instead you should focus on how best to get value in this spot on the turn. It is not to apply maximum fold equity and turn your hand into a semi-bluff. It is to bet a scare card that a ton of villain's turn check-back range can call. Hands like KQ/JT/KT/AJ and of course AT/AQ.

If villain raises turn, call and check-fold river unimproved. See how easy that is compared to this sticky situation?

Sorry for bluntness! one love
 
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Sun Feb 23, 2014, 11:22 AM
(#19)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
mike, with the check-raise were you trying to get more $ into the middle ... was that the reason for it?


I don't play deep-stacked, but was maybe raising a little more pre-flop an option? With the villain behind so deep as well, and with you being oop? Guess it's not as great as managing to squeeze in a re-raise (like, not on this board - just meant in general, in terms of trying to get $$ into the middle when deep, with a strong hand) ... like with compounding by street, maybe every little bit helps?


I don't play deep-stacked tho, so that's just an idea in theory to me, not one I've actually ever tried out myself - maybe people have other ideas

Last edited by TrustySam; Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 11:29 AM..
 
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Sun Feb 23, 2014, 01:09 PM
(#20)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Quote:
Originally Posted by GarethC23 View Post
Sorry I have been a bit slow to post here.

All the problems with this hand stem from the turn check-raise.

There is no justification for it. Sorry to be blunt, but there is no scenario that this will be the best play or a better play than bet/calling turn.

Let's draw up villain's flop calling range. Many AX? AT/AQ, we block the latter. Maybe some AJs as well.

What about KJ? 16 combinations. That is a lot of combinations. J9s as well.

TX? KT/AT/JT/T9. Lots of that.

This card scares the weakest portions of villain's range and strengthens other parts of it. For a significant slice of their total turn range when you check, they are ahead of you.

When you check the turn to them, they check back a ton of hands you crush and bet two pairs and KJ.

Why then would you check-raise versus this betting range? We see the problem occurs one step before the "tough decision." The discussion of whether to call or fold versus the shove is not material to improving your play. It really is not, you shouldn't waste any more time with it.

Instead you should focus on how best to get value in this spot on the turn. It is not to apply maximum fold equity and turn your hand into a semi-bluff. It is to bet a scare card that a ton of villain's turn check-back range can call. Hands like KQ/JT/KT/AJ and of course AT/AQ.

If villain raises turn, call and check-fold river unimproved. See how easy that is compared to this sticky situation?

Sorry for bluntness! one love
Yh i know i butchered the hand completely, i know what hands were checking back and all i was thinking at the time was i have top set as AA was unlikely and i want to get alot of money in the pot and not give him a good price on draws by betting.

I wasnt concerned for him being able to read my hand for what it was which was why i wasnt bothered about turning my hand range face up because i just thought he wouldnt be able to fold two pair or draws.

What i failed to do when i took the line was have note saying this guy can stack off 300bb on that board with stuff like QT, then i failed to think about exactly what was checking back when i did know how to work that out and i was near enough snap x/raising.

All i saw was he can have sets and two pair that can bet call then i thought he might bet call AJ as well then i made the mistake of thinking QTss was in his range for bet calling not realizing i had the Q of spades. I posted further up the thread he can bet KTss i and meant QTss but now looking back i can see i had the Qs, either way theres still way to many hands he can x/b so i should be betting.

The reason this hand got played so badly on the turn was because i was deep and just didnt know the best was to get max value with the stacks as deep as they were, il keep to the standard line i knew in the 1st place but i would of made the mistake of stacking off QQ had i bet and got raised.

If i knew i was playing against someone i knew would of saw my x/r for what it was i wouldn't have x/r and i only had 100 hands on this guy and i cant remember actually getting in any pots with him seen as its zoom so i treated him as if he was capable of not folding a ton of hands like i see so many 5nl players doing.

Im glad i posted this hand ive learnt alot and didn't realize that i should play QQ like i play my other sets when it comes to calling if i bet and got raised, It might be a good idea to stop playing deep but i will never learn if i don't.
 

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