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NLSH - reraise KXX board by agro player

NLSH - reraise KXX board by agro player - Sat Feb 22, 2014, 03:03 PM
pockettones's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 151
Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $4.25 (42.5 bb)
BB: $6.04 (60.4 bb)
Hero (UTG): $10 (100 bb)
MP: $3.70 (37 bb)
CO: $23.35 (233.5 bb)
BTN: $21.65 (216.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q Q
Hero raises to $0.30, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.30, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.75) 2 K 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.40, BTN raises to $0.80, Hero calls $0.40

Turn: ($2.35) T (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $1.30, Hero calls $1.30

River: ($4.95) A (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $2.60, Hero calls $2.60

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Villain is 26/22/10 with AF of 6 over around 90 hands and has been very agressive postflop and pre, I think he could reraise me with str8draws, flushdraws sets but also I think a lot of air so my plan was to just call him down on a non-heart river, I think the ace is a good scarecare to barrel off missed draws and his air range. What do you guys think of this thought process? Too optimistic?
Sat Feb 22, 2014, 11:34 PM
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
(Head Trainer)
Hi pocket,

I think the aces is a terrible card, for a few reasons. Firstly it's not a good scare card for the villain to fire as a bluff, as it's likely to improve our range more than his. The one hand in his range it does improve is the nut flush draw, which now beats us. And with his aggressive 3b stats he would probably 3b a fair bit of aces, but the sample is too small (10% 3B but over only 90 total hands, he probably hasn't had too many 3b opportunities enough for the 10% to mean much).

Honestly I think we should just fold. It would be ok to fold the flop tbh, I don't think we can expect to check/call down when he barrels and have it be profitable. Remember too the AF being high means he doesn't call much, he bets/raises, or folds... it doesn't mean he's bluff happy. Calling the flop isn't terrible or anything, but when we brick the turn and he fires again, I think we should release there. And failing that certainly fold the river. We opened UTG, cbet, then called a raise. Our hand at this point seems over-repped, we look a lot like AK (which would make this a good river card for us), and he doesn't care, he's still firing.

BTW, one other thing with the thought process... you said "I think he could reraise me with str8draws, flushdraws". It's worth noting that a lot of this stuff has just drawn out on us. All flopped straight draws beat us on the river (A4, A5, 54) except for 65/64 gutters... which he's probably not calling preflop with anyway. And any nut flush draw gets there as well. So it seems very hard for him to get to the river with too many bluffs, and total air that was making a move should have given up long ago when the board ran out bad for a move and good for our continuing range. And he's not exactly choosing bet sizings that beg us to go away, either....

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