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$11 10K: ATo MP/EP vs UTG+1 Limp : Late Stage : Donk Bet on Turn on paired board

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$11 10K: ATo MP/EP vs UTG+1 Limp : Late Stage : Donk Bet on Turn on paired board - Sat Feb 22, 2014, 10:30 PM
(#1)
Marc Rae's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 505
Hi All


This was a hand played recently, where I am in the late stages of this tourney.. last 5 tables.

Usually around this time, there are a lot of table merges, so villain has been only at this table for 4 hands prior. I do have limited hands on him though:


-He has opened 4x PFR with QTo
-BvB he has opened from SB 4x with Q9s (pre ante)
-Has defended his BB HU when he can, 2 times.
-Limp called twice.


1st hand played at the table:
Limped from BTN, BB checks option, and Villain stabs with
min. bet on a T high mono flop and takes it down.

Next hand:
Min. raises from CO, takes it down.

Next hand played is with me.


Stats on villain: 16 hands
50/19/0/0

Villain would see me as:
18/6/12/100




Against a relative unknown, and with a min donk bet on the turn when the board pairs, what line is suggested here?

Is the turn line taken here vs this type of villain, optimal? And not because so much that this particular result was not in my favour.

Calling a donk bet of 20% of the pot leaves me with just 14ish BB, and likely to be facing a shove with any river that peels.
I'll be getting a bit less than 2:1 to call a river jam.

Folding to a 20% pot donk turn bet feels horrible against his limp/call range also. If I did fold on the turn with this kind of bet size, it feels quite exploitable (me).

If the table dynamics were shifting towards playing more snug, is 3B jamming more viable here?



Thanks for the comments...
 
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Sun Feb 23, 2014, 12:43 AM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,824
(Super-Moderator)
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Hi Marc Rae!

With the limper being very loose (playing half the hands), I don't want to raise small here, I want to isolate the limper, as my AT is well ahead of a 50% range. I'm going to use my standard raise for this blind level of 2.2BB+1BB for each limper, so I will raise to 7680. Making my standard bet, in addition to trying to isolate this very loose player, will make my next play much easier too, as we will see on the flop.

I get the loose/passive player isolated and see that I flop top pair, but it's a wet flop with both a flush and straight draws. If I had made my standard bet, there would now be 21660 in the pot and the opp would have 35548 behind (they're the effective stack).
My standard flop bet would be 1/2 pot (10830 chips), as I need to bet this much to price out the draws.. BUT.. this bet basically pot-commits them as it's almost 1/3 of their remaining stack... so I'm shoving the flop. Against their full 50% range, I'm a 3-1 favorite (76.3%) and even against their 19% PFR range, I'm a 2-1 favorite (65.9%). Their range will be in-between these two, as they had a hand that was good enough to limp, but not raise with. Being in a situation where I want to accumulate chips to make a final table, then top 3 run, this makes shoving the flop that much easier of a play.

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As played, due to the small bets, the turn is a really bad spot. I have a passive opp leading into me (a big red flag, especially since this is NOT a min-bet like his stab before) and any raise that I would make pot-commits me.

If the opp is known to take stabs at turns after calling a flop bet, then I'm going to call here and re-evaluate on the river. They've done this once before, but I don't have enough info to know if it's a pattern or not. It is however, not a min-bet like before, so this is probably not the case.

If the opp is passive (which they seem to be), normally a lead bet from a passive opp screams made hand and while I hate to do it, I'm mucking to this bet by this type of opp as they will almost always show up with a J here. If they had an A, they'd do it on the flop, not the turn.

The only way I'm going to jam the turn here is if the opp checks to me as a passive opp that checks twice is one that I should be ahead of.

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The best line that I can take is a standard raise preflop, which sets up a flop shove. This way, I'm well ahead of their range. I want their chips going in when I'm most likely ahead, not when I can easily be beat on the turn.. when the board pairs.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sun Feb 23, 2014, 01:18 AM
(#3)
Marc Rae's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 505
Thanks John for that explanation.


Sometimes I do overshove flops, I mean it's part of my playbook. Moreso, if I have decent history or reads with a villain.


I think this is where my process to evaluate against unknowns falters and needs slight re-adjustment.


As you see with the flop bet, it was sized to jam the turn... just that I get a donk bet. At this point I don't have info if he has a play to donk turn after calling a flop cbet.


Looking at it now, the thought should be to raise more pre, to jam the flop... with more of a consideration with his effective stack vs mine when choosing sizing.




Cheers
 
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Sun Feb 23, 2014, 01:23 AM
(#4)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,824
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
If it was a drier flop or a larger stack, I like the idea of setting it up to get it in on the turn and it would be my plan of attack.

However with this board and the villain's range, there are too many turn cards that put me in a really bad spot (any club, any pair or anything that completes a straight, let alone all the 2 pair combos).. they're basically ALL in the opp's range.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sun Feb 23, 2014, 04:01 AM
(#5)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
Marc, this is a tricky situation where a hand looks good but it's actually very bad to play with

ep FISH open limped with only 18bb to start with

your next to play with only 22bb to start the hand AT looks good but with still lots of players to act definitely not a good spot to just min raise and attract someone who got position on you have great odds to peel the flop

and what are you gonna do if you get 3bet shove for all of your chips - yes, I know sadly you got to fold and waste precious chips this late in the game

better to let go of this hand to avoid situation where you might flop good but actually drawing dead and you got no room to play post flop because your not that deep enough

---

ok you opted for around 2.5x - let's go from there and see the flop HU against the ep fish

you flopped top pair and opp checked 18860 in the pot

the pot is almost 50% the size of the opponent's stack(36948) given this situation I'm not folding ever top pair and when I'm not folding and that i'll be having 26% chip up without a showdown in case he folds to a bet I'll just shove it all in post flop and lessen the headache because we are not deep enough to play for turn and river which we are gonna get it in also no matter what turn or river might come

gl in your games Marc

Last edited by marvinsytan; Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 04:26 AM..
 
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Mon Feb 24, 2014, 04:37 PM
(#6)
Marc Rae's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 505
@JWK24 Understood John.. I did mean in context of the board. Just didn't articulate the reply well.


@Marvinystan. Sorry for the late reply. I think that when we are in those final 4 or 5 tables, we need to exploit at every opportunity the chance to chip up. The fact that the limper is on my right, I can't let him dictate too much how I play in the next 2 or 3 orbits, as I may find myself blinding down to <15BB, if he is habitually limping. Although I'm 22BB now, I think I need to isolate him to play HU with a holding that is very likely ahead of his whole limping range. Obv, the concern is possible action behind me. If cold 3B, I'd have a plan who to call off and who to fold to in this spot.


In the same theme of what John and you say.. when villain calls, I should have just jammed the flop, and this is where I go wrong here with my assessment vs unknowns.


Thanks for your comments
 

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