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10NL ZOOM - JJ OOP KJT board vs TAG

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10NL ZOOM - JJ OOP KJT board vs TAG - Mon Feb 24, 2014, 08:44 PM
(#1)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Please note that the villain is a TAG player.

MAIN QUESTION: Is this a spot where I can get all in OTF with a positive expectation?

PF: Not sure about 3betting this villains MP open.

F: I should have 3bet here because the villain could have continued with worse but let's go back to the original question, Is this a spot where I can get all in OTF with a positive expectation?

I guess my dilemma with these spots is that the villain could continue with a wide range after I raise his cbet, (Qx, 2p, 2 spades) but I'm never sure what potential hands they will be 4bet shoving in this spot. I'm blocking the open ended straight flush.

I only see a TAG 4b shoving with this hand range: KK,TT,AQs,KJs,Q9s,AQo,KJo (Q9s is questionable from MP) can we add any bluffs in here for a TAG vs. TAG situation?

Villain(127):21/17/2.6
Flop Cbet: 100 (10 samples)

 
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Mon Feb 24, 2014, 09:27 PM
(#2)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
I think we should bet river for value. He can be checking back hands like KQ which would call river but not bet. We also wanna be bluffing this river with hands like pocket pairs so JJ is a good hand to have in your value betting range.

vs a good tag, i don't expect to be ahead by stacking off OTF. I would expect hands like TJ, KJ to call a x/r, whilst hands like TT, KK, Q9s and AQ (as well as the odd A9ss) to jam over a x/r.

Against that range i'd say we are a slight dog.

That being said, i still prefer x/raising flop to take the initiative and prevent him checking back OTT to realise equity.

If he comes over the top, we are pot committed vs his range so we need to get it in.

If he calls we can start extracting value.
 
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Tue Feb 25, 2014, 05:50 AM
(#3)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Put in AA, KK, JJ, TT, AQ on PokerStove and you'll see that we are even money so yes I think we can raise the flop and get all in here. Not to mention that by raising flop we can get called by worse hands too, think about KJ, JTs, KTs, KQ, AK, QJ, QTs.
 

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