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5nl zoom NFD+2overs

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5nl zoom NFD+2overs - Wed Feb 26, 2014, 08:58 AM
(#1)
Praydk's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 504

villain unknown
what is his range here? small pockets/draws? Should this be a one and done? if so, what do we do if he bets the turn?
 
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Wed Feb 26, 2014, 12:05 PM
(#2)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
I would barrel (1/2) pot, barrel (1/2) pot, jam this river.
 
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Wed Feb 26, 2014, 02:00 PM
(#3)
Praydk's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 504
why, whats he calling 2 streets and folding the river with?
I put him on 67hh,78hh,89,9Thh,Jhx,TT,99,88

Last edited by Praydk; Wed Feb 26, 2014 at 02:16 PM..
 
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Wed Feb 26, 2014, 02:48 PM
(#4)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Quote:
Originally Posted by Praydk View Post
why, whats he calling 2 streets and folding the river with?
I put him on 67hh,78hh,89,9Thh,Jhx,TT,99,88
To answer your question of why: Once you bet this turn you're committing yourself to the hand. Reason why I like to 1/2 pot twice is to have a slightly larger river shove.

Now what is he calling 2 streets with then folding the river. He could potentially fold all draws, pairs with draws, 44, 66, TT and even QQ. It's funny how you ask these questions to yourself but let's go into the mind of the villain..."What's the guy raising with preflop, betting OTF, OTT, and shoving the river with?"

Answer: JJ+ AhKh. So even if the villain has QQ here his equity vs your perceived range is about 9% (8.82%)

You can expect the villain to raise sets and straights OTT which you shouldn't be folding to anyway once you bet the turn.

If you took a different line OTT then you could check back this river but as played you have to be prepared to shove this river after betting the turn no matter what card comes.
 
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Wed Feb 26, 2014, 11:58 PM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi Pray,

I expect the villain to have a lot of pocket pairs JJ- in a spot like this, as well as broadways (probably suited) and hands like Ax that the can't fold pre. In other words it's unlikely he has too many draws here.

I do think this is a good card to barrel, as it's an overcard to most of his pocket pairs. It's also a spot I would be willing to empty the clip on the river quite often, as we can get called by hands like 88 that will "believe us" when we move in on the end, but in order for that to work we have to size our bets differently (have a plan for your hand, and start earlier than the turn card so we can size all 3 streets according to plan). As played when he calls your turn bet, there will be 5.76 in the middle and you only have 2.15 left to shove, he may not be a believer with the pot so big and just decide meh, and call it off with 88. If we instead bet like 1.20, then the pot will have 4.86 and we'll be shoving 2.60 on the river, a bit more convincing to the hands we are targeting to fold.


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