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25nl Deep - Rivered baby flush facing shove

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25nl Deep - Rivered baby flush facing shove - Thu Feb 27, 2014, 05:13 AM
(#1)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Stats;

BTN: $43.86 - VPIP: 29, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 45
BB: $65.02 - VPIP: 31, PFR: 24, 3B: 14, AF: 2.3, Hands: 544
MP: $62.50 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 14, 3B: 4, AF: 2.2, Hands: 386



Interesting hand for sure. in b4 fold pre

OTT i'm well aware that my hand has no SD value, so i'm barreling the A as a semi-bluff with a 5, 3, 4, or diamond as likely outs.

So OTR I make my flush (which I really shouldn't have that many combos of (AKdd, ATdd and A5dd are pretty much it).

He shoves, and though he shouldn't be bluffing here, I feel this is too far up in my range to fold (considering i'll have sets, straights and two pair in my river betting range).

Should we call off getting 2:1?
 
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Thu Feb 27, 2014, 09:13 AM
(#2)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Well what hands do you think can raise that river you beat? That he thinks he is jamming for value, i mean would a set raise there i wouldnt of thought so and would he float KThh and then jam that river?
 
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Thu Feb 27, 2014, 09:44 AM
(#3)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
Quote:
Originally Posted by mike2198 View Post
Well what hands do you think can raise that river you beat? That he thinks he is jamming for value, i mean would a set raise there i wouldnt of thought so and would he float KThh and then jam that river?
AQ/AJ I think could think they are raising that river for value against AK. I wouldn't be shocked to see KT making it to the river, not saying it would be good play, I just wouldn't be surprised. I've seen worse make it to the river.

Although it is unlikely I think top set could be raising for value, but I think the rest of the hand plays out differently. As said, unlikely.

QQ that slow played, he's not insanely aggressive or anything so I think that is a slightly more legitimate hand.

JJ, does it get to the river? Q high flop, A high turn against an EP open. JJ should surely be thinking it is most often behind. If it does get to the river though, it might spazz out, not taking note that the flush also came in at the same time.

I don't think 55/22 are in his range here. At least from running it through Equilab it may not be.

Definitely an interesting hand, I probably wouldnt have made it the river, but once I do, I think I am probably calling that off. Not the nicest spot to be in though.
 
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Thu Feb 27, 2014, 09:48 AM
(#4)
CaRLoS_DZ87's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 184
BronzeStar
Hi birdayy,

I see some arguments to fold river.

-He seems tight with normal aggression factor.
-He called from MP so he won't always 3bet AKdd and since you are deep, I can see him playing a bit more combinations KdJd, AdTd, Td9d. Also there is a bit of a gap between hes PFR and VPIP so he definitely could have some more combinations of suited connectors and small Ad's.
-You show a lot of strenght opening from UTG and 3barreling.
- Don't know many player that could turn the Ad into a bluff here figuring that his TP is never good here.


The only reason I find for calling is that he is kind of polarized, because I don't know if he would ever shove for value worst flushes this deep on this spot when you raised from UTG and 3barrel, and there is not that many combinations of A high flushes that he should be calling from MP normally.... but you are deep.

I am inclined to fold.

Last edited by CaRLoS_DZ87; Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 01:29 PM.. Reason: fold river..
 
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Fri Feb 28, 2014, 01:08 AM
(#5)
PSO-xflixx's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,119
(Live Trainer)
I think this should be a pretty clear fold OTR without any specific reads/history for many reasons:

- multiway action makes both your range and villains continuing ranges stronger on a board runout that hits your perceived range very well
- he can't really get to the river with too many combos of hands like busted draws that need to bluff. He would probably have to be turning made hands into bluffs here (for whatever reasons^^)
- I don't feel like the "top of our range" argument is valid here as you widened your EP range as an exploit I assume and should be looking for calls from worse only (or history/dynamic specific action you already anticipated because of reads in which case you would probably snapcall^^)


Live Trainer



 
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Fri Feb 28, 2014, 02:50 AM
(#6)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Thanks Felix.

Villain actually has a major leak of not understanding relative hand strength, which made me inclined to call.

He showed a (horribly played) JJ.
 

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