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10NL ZOOM - AA facing a XR OTT

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10NL ZOOM - AA facing a XR OTT - Fri Feb 28, 2014, 02:23 PM
(#1)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
On the turn, shove or fold?

Villain(524): 19/14/3.1
Fold to 3b: 50 (14 samples)
Tot steal: 36
HM2 autorate: ABC Player

 
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Fri Feb 28, 2014, 07:27 PM
(#2)
pockettones's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 151
What is his fold to 3b stat, and how wide does he open the CO? I'm folding the turn, I expect if he is check-raising as a bluff to put you off unpaired hands he will do this on the flop, on the turn he looks so strong. Probably has something like 9Ts, 89s, 44, MAYBE some slowplayed aces but I believe AA will check-call here to bluff-catch expecting you to be very wide on the button, and you hold 2 aces so this is very unlikely. Best you can hope for is TT-KK. Check-raising with TT-KK OTT is pretty bad here as you are folding villain's bluffs and isolating yourself against his hands that beat yours.

Last edited by pockettones; Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 07:31 PM..
 
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Fri Feb 28, 2014, 07:39 PM
(#3)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Quote:
Originally Posted by pockettones View Post
What is his fold to 3b stat, and how wide does he open the CO?
FOLD TO 3BET: 50 (on 14 samples)
PFR BY POSITION
EP: 7
MP: 16
CO: 26
BTN: 30
SB: 21

Last edited by dirt eh; Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 07:45 PM..
 
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Sat Mar 01, 2014, 08:43 AM
(#4)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
This guy is playing pretty tight and like your HM2 says, pretty ABC.

This all adds up to this being a classic Beluga spot and a fold.

This villain's rarely going to take this line with TT-QQ, he'll either check/call twice or three times or check/raise flop to stop you realising your equity with overcards.

Villain could have 44 or stuff like A9s, J9s, T9s, maybe even K9 or Q9 although I think these are less likely.

Especially with the size he's made his raise, he's now committing himself to the hand, so calling isn't even less of an attractive option than it normally would be.

I know it feels awful to fold AA on such a dry board, but against this villain type I think it's your best option.
 

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