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25NL tough spot on the turn

25NL tough spot on the turn - Sat Mar 01, 2014, 06:40 AM
Sentras's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 122
villain: 17/7/0 agg: 1.0
50'ish hands

I'm really trying to open my postflop playgame. I was wondering with what hands he would donk the turn here. And I couldn't find a big enough range that would make it profitable to call.

I'm kinda puzzled whether it is a good fold. I doubt a Jx is often in his range concidering his aggression factor. (Its small sample but still).

I figured his range could be AcJc, KcJc, 9x (98+), fullhouses. Also if he bets a flushdraw, he might bluff a miss OTR, which would make me fold and he's also bet a better flush.

In other words I can't raise the river if I hit and even if I hit i'll often still be beat.

Is this nitty fold smart? as theoretically I only need 28% to get the winning hand.
Sat Mar 01, 2014, 01:34 PM
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Hi Sentras,

Generally I don't think villain has a 9+ here... many times villains would check/raise 22 or A9 (especially 22 since they chose to slow play the flop on a wet board, it wasn't to donk out the turn when they fill up). Although he is passive in his stats, the sample is too small for me to feel like we can fully trust this read yet.

What I typically see in spots like this is a pair, they think might be good, and want to protect/see where they're at. AJ-JT fit the bill, so do hands like 88 that don't want to give a free card to AK/AQ.

I think we can profitably call the turn in this spot. When we improve with a club or ten we can expect to be good and can value bet if he checks to us (probably just call if he bets big again). When we hit a Q and he checks, same thing. And we can reasonably bluff the river sometimes when we miss and he checks to us. If he checks an A or K river for instance, he is probably not calling a $5 bet.

Raising the turn is also an option, but I don't prefer it over floating because it forces us to ramp up our variance and also sets us up to get taken off a decent draw if the read is wrong and he does have 9x, and decides to 3b our raise.

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