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50NL 6-Max Zoom: River bluff on Quad board

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50NL 6-Max Zoom: River bluff on Quad board - Sat Mar 01, 2014, 09:16 AM
(#1)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
The villain in this hand is extremely nitty. After he called my flop bet I was confident he had a pair. Since the board had quad 6s, the river seemed like a good spot to bluff bet repping an A which would beat any pair he was holding.

Villain plays 13/10 and only c-bet 33%, which seems to indicate only made hands. Thus he seemed likely to have a pocket pair on this flop. I also knew he could fold when beat. Thus, I opted to bluff the river.



Any thoughts? Thanks

Roland GTX
 
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Sat Mar 01, 2014, 09:32 AM
(#2)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Yh makes sense to rep an A but wouldnt he bet the turn with all his pairs and check back his Ax himself as he has showdown value.

Dont know how wide he calls 3bets but my guess is he might flat some broadways and then folded some hearts on the river.
 
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Sat Mar 01, 2014, 09:53 AM
(#3)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
I don't really like the 3Bet preflop, unless the villain steals from the Button a lot more than his normal 13/10 playing style. T9o doesn't play that well OOP against a very strong range.
 
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Sat Mar 01, 2014, 10:14 AM
(#4)
Sentras's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 122
Well it also really depends on how much he attempts to steal the button there.
Concidering 13/10 he plays an insanely tight range. Mostly these players do fit or fold.

As he didn't 4B you kinda can exclude many A's from his range, as these tight players mostly don't really flat with A rags either.

You can definatly rep A high due your check on the turn. The only thing bothering me is, with what dus this guy call the flop and fold the river? So the only real hands I can put him on is a float which doesn't quite fit his MO. or a small scared PP wanting a cheap showdown.

You played the hand well! I like the betsizing on the river.
However your 10high has showdown value here tbh... :p
 
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Sat Mar 01, 2014, 10:34 AM
(#5)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
What's his btn stl %?

Pretty easy flat pre vs most people.
 
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Sat Mar 01, 2014, 01:19 PM
(#6)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
I only have 61 hands on the guy. Thus far his 3b%, call3b% and 4b% were all at 0. birdayy, his btn steal is on 60, but with so few hands it doesnt say much. I do have him noted as fit or fold and have seen him check every str with QQ on an A high flop.

I don't really know if 3b pf is better or worse than flatting. Here is my thinking though. I like to take the initiative especially with marginal hands oop like this. We win the pot without seeing the flop quite often. So, 3b seems preferable to flatting and having to play the hand. Moreover we are deep stacked and the villain, to me at least, seems pretty exploitable postflop since he plays rather straight forward. Since I was the pr aggressor, I can comfortably cbet this guy with great fold equity. He seems quite fit or fold. The problem occurs when he calls since he apparently fit. I checked the turn and would have folded to most bets. The river just seemed to give me a good plan b to win a hand I was presumably behind in.
 
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Sat Mar 01, 2014, 05:15 PM
(#7)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,499
(Head Trainer)
Hi Greg,

Wow the guy is nitty. And a nit's biggest mistake is folding too often.

I think you made a nice read and good bet on the river. He's likely to be holding QQ-TT is my guess, and a nit is not hero calling that on this board ever. I also like the sizing, in light of his relative hand strength to the board and his style.

Earlier in the hand I'm not too keen on though. Does he have a steal % on the button or is he still just his same old nitty self? If he's got steals then 3b is fine, if not though I don't really like making this play here. I think we do better calling pre and checking to him, where we can get a very solid read on his hand strength based on the flop texture and whether or not he c-bets. When he doesn't c-bet, or scare cards come, we can take the pot away obv so we're not flatting to make a hand, we're flatting to exploit his bad frequencies.


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Sat Mar 01, 2014, 05:24 PM
(#8)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,499
(Head Trainer)
@mike, I don't think he ever has an ace here, he would fold AK to the flop c-bet and he would 4-bet AA preflop.

@Sentras, The guy is calling flop with pocket pairs, based on his nittiness probably TT-QQ. I don't think our T has any significant showdown value tbh. We beat 99 and 88, now sure how many lower pairs he'll even hold. But if we bet he'll fold basically his entire range, which makes betting much more profitable than showing down. If we check and lose to JJ or split with TT it's a huge disaster since he will fold these hands 100% of the time to a not-even-large river bet.


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Sun Mar 02, 2014, 12:35 PM
(#9)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
@mike, I don't think he ever has an ace here, he would fold AK to the flop c-bet and he would 4-bet AA preflop.

@Sentras, The guy is calling flop with pocket pairs, based on his nittiness probably TT-QQ. I don't think our T has any significant showdown value tbh. We beat 99 and 88, now sure how many lower pairs he'll even hold. But if we bet he'll fold basically his entire range, which makes betting much more profitable than showing down. If we check and lose to JJ or split with TT it's a huge disaster since he will fold these hands 100% of the time to a not-even-large river bet.
Can he never have an ace because he is a nit or because it would be bad to float that flop?

I thought he would peel his flush draws and check it back on the turn, is it bad to bet our pairs on the turn then or is that just a read you have on nits pot controlling the turn afraid of a bigger pair.

I would expect Roland to bet his made hands and give up on his bluffs, so i would be betting my pairs for value/protection, would that be bad then?
 
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Sun Mar 02, 2014, 12:46 PM
(#10)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
Hi mike

The villain seems to really be fit or fold. Therefore, when he calls my cbet, we can rule out all Ax hands from his range (actually all non-pair hands) and be confident that he has a pocket pair since nothing else fits with the board. AA seems unlikely since he didn't 4b preflop. Now since there are four 6s on the board on the river, any pair he has just got conterfitted. He is most likely folding his entire range on the river because he is losing to any Ax.
 

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