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$27 Saturday Eliminator KO AKo hand

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$27 Saturday Eliminator KO AKo hand - Sun Mar 02, 2014, 05:05 AM
(#1)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-h...280_683D5D9D44

player6 utg never been out of line and my read is not raising light but definitely have a chance to get a fold to my shove

player2 definitely a weak call

I'm just thinking is winning 1110 without showdown with the risk of busting the tournament is worth it base on risk/reward ratio?

I know it's unlucky he had A.merican A.irline

Is it better to risk 375 and just analyze after the flop having the BTN position

or get fold equity and win 1110 pot to my 5253 stack 21% chip up if get called I have a chance to double up/bust out with my AK hand
 
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Mon Mar 03, 2014, 05:39 AM
(#2)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
anyone wants to analyze?
 
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Mon Mar 03, 2014, 06:19 AM
(#3)
Marc Rae's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 505
hey marvin... picking a spot for a chance to chip up 20%+ uncontested is always great. But, when doing so, you would want to have a read that you'll get the villains to fold most of the time. Without this, I am more in favour of 3betting here on the button, with 34BB... here you can then see action that comes around from UTG and CO. If UTG villan calls your 3B and CO comes in as well, then you have position on both.


If you're read is right, you can fold to his 4bet depending what you range him on, or call off because you've induced. But I'm never just closing here with AK in multiway pot, with likely hood of the blinds coming in as well, with these stacks.


But I don't mind the shove either, if you have history and think one of them may call off with worse, or if you think UTG is nitty enough to fold since CO still is left behind with action.
 
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Mon Mar 03, 2014, 11:30 AM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi Marvin,

I don't like the shove tbh, I think ripping 35bb's over a 2.5x is a bit too industrious for my tastes.

Although we know UTG is on a strong range in general, clearly AK is too strong to fold, so we are left with calling or 3-betting. I lean strongly towards calling here for several reasons.

-UTG's range is strong, and I will hate getting 4-bet by him as I expect his 4b range to be something like JJ+/AK in this spot. This isn't a big problem if he's starting out wide and will both fold a lot and call a fair bit with the rest of it, but when he starts with a narrow range already due to his position, it's not great... there's not enough flotsam to compensate for the times we are owning ourselves vs. JJ+/AK.

-The squeeze will probably fold out the flatter quite a bit, and he has a lot of hands that don't flop well against us. small/med pairs will have to hit a set to put any real money in post flop. And hands like AQ/KQ can get away from our squeeze, which we don't really want.

-We have good relative and absolute position, inflating the pot negates the perks that come with that (shoving eliminates those perks altogether). Flatting keeps the pot small pre, which allows us to maximize the value of our position here during post flop play.

-Flatting has some deceptive value, as players expect AK to 3b automatically regardless of situation. So the villain who has AQ on an A high flop (and AQ is in both their ranges) won't know what hit them.

-It offers some stack protection, which isn't a bad thing on 35bb's. If we miss and it goes bet/call or bet/raise on the flop, we can get away unscathed.

I'm not sure about the profitability of 3-betting here, it's probably profitable but uncertain at least, given the UTG's probable solid range and the prospect of getting 4-b/stacking it in vs. a range we don't play well against. I'm sure that flatting in this situation is quite profitable though, and also is lower variance.


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Mon Mar 03, 2014, 06:14 PM
(#5)
Marc Rae's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 505
Hi there Dave

I've had a chance to look at my hand sample in relation to marvin's example. I had to include the CO, as I don't have enough samples with just BTN play. Also with raiser + 1 caller, not enough, so included raiser with no caller.

Filter: AK on the BTN/CO, with EP raiser/raiser + 1 caller, no 3bet, effective stacks > 25BB, Preflop AI False.

11 samples. Profitable as you said.

Although a very small sample size, Looks like I'm doing flatting here during earlier stages, and the pots I do lose are minimal as I don't continue with the hand. The majority of these situations have been with deep effective stacks, usually pre-ante. Agree that calling is a lower variance line and offers that deceptive element in your reference.


Filter: AK on the BTN/CO, with EP raiser/raiser + 1 caller, 3bet, effective stacks > 25BB, Preflop AI False.

76 hands, profitable here. Just filtering on EP raiser + 1 caller, I have 18 hands - profitable here too.

When I have opted to 3bet, the pots I have won have been relatively more profitable for me (obv most of these pots usually have antes), as I am raising my level of aggression during these stages.

Maybe the way I opt to call vs 3bet during pre-ante and later stages, could do with the relative buyin as well - where most of my samples are derived from the micros. I don't think I can or should rule that out.


But when we are talking about that 30-35+BB mark, shoving does seem spewy.. and it is something I've been working on the last several months to tone down.
But regardless if it was even 28-32BB, if the read says I can pick up that dead money and increase my stack 15-20%, I can shove here and be profitable most of the time. The caveat is, when I say I am shoving, however, I am never ever just shoving my top range here. I don't think you can be profitable enough of the time to be doing this just with premiums.. so I am shoving my entire range when I decide to steal/squeeze when I pick my spot. And obviously this is all situational, as for most the part I want to get value from my value hands too, than just picking up the pot pre.

Filter: (bottom85% = no pp, no double broadways, no AT+) on the BTN/CO, EP raiser + 1 caller, 3bet, effective stacks > 25BB, Preflop AI, Saw flop false.

42 hands, profitable. Mostly deeper stages.


Obv. when I've filtered my hand samples, I'm not able to filter based on EP raisers stats, so the results aren't biased only towards an EP PFR weighted towards a range of JJ+/AK+.
 
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Mon Mar 03, 2014, 07:28 PM
(#6)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
Thank you Coach Dave

got a great answer

your right Coach Dave, thinking hard I think 35bb is too deep to shove PRE just to get the fold and win chips w/o showdown. Too big of a risk.

3betting then getting 4bet shove is also going to put me in a tough situation where I can't fold.

So one option left call because folding AK is not in my arsenal of weapon and analyze post flop.

**
and thank you Marc for all the samples that you've given appreciate it
 
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Mon Mar 03, 2014, 08:45 PM
(#7)
Marc Rae's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 505
np marvin, was interesting to just correlate/verify/validate what dave has explained too, and apply some logic/considerations into why I'm playing this hand preflop in this situation.

btw, I have folded AK on the button once in the same scenario.. but only because I had a decent read with UTG villain

good scenario!
 
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Wed Mar 05, 2014, 01:26 AM
(#8)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hey guys,

Shoving pre to win the chips without a fight isn't bad if we are successful a lot. I'm just not sure how often we will be against a strong range, and think even if it's profitable we can do better flatting and playing this spot post flop, and with lower variance too. So Marc the analysis you're doing to establish shoving is profitable, again it probably is, but is probably not the most profitable line and it's a higher variance line to boot if the villain is on a snug range and thus is saturated with stack off hands that we are most a small or big dog to. And it probably eliminates the other villain from the hand, who's range is significantly weaker than the openers and AK does play quite well against.

Quote:
Filter: (bottom85% = no pp, no double broadways, no AT+) on the BTN/CO, EP raiser + 1 caller, 3bet, effective stacks > 25BB, Preflop AI, Saw flop false.

42 hands, profitable. Mostly deeper stages.
Double check this... were all 42 hands wins? I think including "saw flop false" is going to return you only the results where no one called and you took it down pre, remove that filter and I think you'll get hands where you got called too. You're right, it's not able to account for the opener's tight range, so I fully expect this to show as +EV, but you can get some intuitive feel by looking at all the cases your shove got called in this filter, and see what the caller's stats are compared with what holding he called with.


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Wed Mar 05, 2014, 11:01 AM
(#9)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
Interesting discussion.

When I just played through the hand, my initial inclination was to flat but also saw upside to 3Betting to say 1100 but really didn't see the point in shoving unless the cold caller was really bad and wouldn't be able to fold something like AJ for all the money in the world.

3Betting seemed unattractive to me because you're really lowering the SPR against a strong range when UTG chooses to flat and you're going to miss the flop 2/3 of the time. Also you'll have to stack off when he shoves and I don't think you'll be in great shape.

Marc's stats are interesting but I'd take them with a pinch of salt as those numbers heavily depend on the villain type, which of course can vary wildly between tourneys.
 
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Wed Mar 05, 2014, 09:28 PM
(#10)
Marc Rae's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 505
Thanks Dave / Andy for the comments.


You're right, in context of the actual read Marvin provided of UTG villain. The stats don't correlate entirely for this specific scenario so is a mute point. So I guess providing the stats the way I did skews somewhat the best line to take for the given scenario. I mean I even mentioned that I've folded AK here before due to a read on UTG villain.
 

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