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TPTK vs river shove

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TPTK vs river shove - Sun Mar 02, 2014, 11:45 AM
(#1)
Praydk's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 504

unknown
At the moment I thought of him having 2 pair, sets, and flushes (otr)
but could he have enough bluffs for me to call?
Sets and 2 pair would raise the flop or the turn and wont shove a dangerous river. That sizing looks bluffy and there are some hands that make sense, correct me if I'm wrong:

bluffing range: [99,Q9s,J9s,T9s,Q9o,J9o,T9o] - 38 combos

flushes: [KsQs,AsJs,KsJs,QsJs,AsTs,KsTs,QsTs,JsTs,As9s,Ks9s, Qs9s,Js9s,Ts9s,As8s,Ts8s,9s8s,As7s,9s7s,8s7s,As6s, 7s6s,As5s,6s5s,As4s,5s4s,As3s,As2s] - 17 combos

we are good 69% if he bluffs his entire bluffing range
Is it worth a call with reads or even without them?

Last edited by Praydk; Sun Mar 02, 2014 at 02:52 PM..
 
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Sun Mar 02, 2014, 01:35 PM
(#2)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
I don't like your check OTR. Make life easy and shove this river. I would have also made your bet sizing OTF and OTT larger.

Last edited by dirt eh; Sun Mar 02, 2014 at 01:49 PM..
 
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Sun Mar 02, 2014, 02:04 PM
(#3)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
I find it's best to treat an unknown as a bit better than average (average players are still net losers as a group) until they shown reason to believe otherwise a few times.

After the c-bet I check-fold on a very wet board like this. Why inflate the pot on deep money with just TPTK?
 
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Sun Mar 02, 2014, 02:51 PM
(#4)
Praydk's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 504
Arent unknowns more likely to be fish? because of not being regs?
It's not deep at all, its 100bb
Doesn't a wet board mean that we are getting called by more draw hands/pair+draw? The turn is a brick I don't see why would we want to check it.

Last edited by Praydk; Sun Mar 02, 2014 at 02:53 PM..
 
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Sun Mar 02, 2014, 02:54 PM
(#5)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Quote:
Originally Posted by Praydk View Post
Arent unknowns more likely to be fish? because of not being regs?
It's not deep at all, its 100bb
Doesn't a wet board mean that we are getting called by more draw hands/pair+draw? The turn is a brick I don't see why would we want to check it.
Villain is only 50bb! BET BET SHOVE!
 
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Sun Mar 02, 2014, 03:22 PM
(#6)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
I messed up the SPR. On this board with a wet board, I'd bet between 0.35 and 0.45 then shove the brick on the turn.

You lose less by overestimating your opponents than by underestimating them. So I tend to be a bit conservative until I have more information.
 
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Mon Mar 03, 2014, 12:01 AM
(#7)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi Pray,

I actually think you played this fine. I doubt shoving the river is profitable in this spot, what's he calling with, KQ? That's about it for worse hands that can even consider calling our shove (if he's a weaker player). But we will certainly get called by all 2 pair+ holdings including all those flush draws that just got there. Value betting the river is +EV when we're good more than 50% of the time when called... I don't see that as likely here.

I doubt the guy is bluffing us much in this spot, again what hand would be bluffing? KQ would check and show down. So would KJ and KT probably. A9? That doesn't have enough showdown value and might bluff, if he gets to the river with it after you betting twice. Even still, if he were bluffing, he doesn't need to blast off his stack for a pot sized bet to do it effectively... he could bet .75-1. Pretty sure this is a value bet with what he feels confident is the best hand.

I am very comfortable check/folding this river to a large bet. When we're good I expect the river to go check/check a lot.


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