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Sooo tempting....

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Sooo tempting.... - Sun Mar 02, 2014, 06:30 PM
(#1)
rkleefstra's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 2,328
Final table of the Team Online Depository freeroll.
Money-jumps are massive.

http://www.boomplayer.com/nl/poker-h...812_3FEA04DA17

Villain was playing a vpip of 27 and I know he is a pretty good player.

I was thinking about shoving if he checked or betted light, but he shoved...now this is a pretty easy fold right?
Or should I gamble my flushdraw to bust him. I do have a decent stack left if I don't hit...

Last edited by rkleefstra; Sun Mar 02, 2014 at 06:38 PM..
 
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Sun Mar 02, 2014, 07:25 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,862
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hi rkleefstra!

With QT in the BB, I get an opp that makes a min-raise. The stat that is much more meaningful would be the opp's PFR, as this would give a better indication of their range than VPIP. I'd look at VPIP if they limped, but since they raised, I need to look at the PFR. With it being a min-raise and since I'm in position with a playable hand, I'm absolutely calling and seeing a flop.

I flop an OESD and the opp shoves. To call, it's 30007 into a pot that will be 71264 (42.1%). I have 8 outs and if I call, I get to see both streets, which means that each out is worth 4% equity instead of 2% since there cannot be a turn bet. This means that my hand has 32% equity. Since my pot equity is 10% higher, I'd expect to lose 10% of my chips every single time that I call here... so my draw is going into the muck.
If the opp had less chips, where my hand equity would be higher than my pot equity, then I'd call, but I don't want to have to call a shove that is a very high -EV play.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Mon Mar 03, 2014, 07:55 AM
(#3)
rkleefstra's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 2,328
Very helpfull thanks!

I got him later in that tourney GG @gtwi !
 

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