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2NL postflop analyse pls

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2NL postflop analyse pls - Mon Mar 03, 2014, 12:19 PM
(#1)
NaturoSasuki's Avatar
Since: Dec 2013
Posts: 348
zoom , no info,
i know iz loose preflop call but w/e
OTF i have most likely 4 outs and it looks like he haz big overpair so i can count with option to stack him off if i hit my out... so i counted and it was like 12% so i guess its ok... but OTT would it be call too? cuz OTT i need 18%(+ stack him off) and i kindof have 9 outs... 3,3,3,3,5,5,5,6,6.... i know that it can sound optimistic that even 5 5 5 are my outs but many 2NL players will not fold their overpair if i jam such river cuz pot is so deep alrdy and they feel like they are potcommited ...

to sum it up... if he would be folding when i hit ... then i m not getting good odds so i rather folded... maybe if bet was a bit smaller i would call

Last edited by NaturoSasuki; Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 12:23 PM..
 
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Mon Mar 03, 2014, 12:29 PM
(#2)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Personally I would fold Preflop.
As played fold OTF.
 
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Mon Mar 03, 2014, 12:31 PM
(#3)
NaturoSasuki's Avatar
Since: Dec 2013
Posts: 348
Quote:
Originally Posted by dirt eh View Post
Personally I would fold Preflop.
As played fold OTF.
wut is ur argument for folding flop? as it looks so much he has bigpair and if u hit any 3, u stack him off , so u have 16%(4 outs) and u need only 12%(with implied odds)
 
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Mon Mar 03, 2014, 01:38 PM
(#4)
rkleefstra's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 2,328
I would fold to the 3bet as well, but I know you don't so not going to discuse that.

But on the flop this is a clear fold. You PROB have 16%, maybe less if he is on a flushdraw.
You say you only need 12% because of the implied odds.

1) You only have 16% if you see both turn and river. This is never going to happen after he bets pot.
2) Those odds only apply if the money is going in. There is no telling that is ever going to happen here. If he has a big pair and you hit your miracle 3, he is not calling a shove especially if it's the he is eighter afraid for flush, or completes his flush. So you cannot use all implied odds.

As I see it, you have 8% to hit your 3 OTT and you need, a lot more odds to make this +EV.

Summary
pre : call the 56s is good from BTN, but fold it to the 3bet
flop : fold
Turn: fold
river: fold
6th-7th street: fold

All my hubble opinion...
 
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Mon Mar 03, 2014, 01:46 PM
(#5)
NaturoSasuki's Avatar
Since: Dec 2013
Posts: 348
it was kind of close call even for me... had to start microsoft calculator and almost timed out:p
 
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Mon Mar 03, 2014, 02:04 PM
(#6)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Quote:
Originally Posted by NaturoSasuki View Post
it was kind of close call even for me... had to start microsoft calculator and almost timed out:p
I wouldn't worry about implied odds at micro stakes. Just worry about basic odds. 4 outs... and I would say that this spot is 3. I don't want to see the 3 of hearts.

3 outs (odds flop to turn, 15 to 1, odds flop to river 7 to 1) OTF the villain gives you 2 to 1 odds... FOLD
 
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Mon Mar 03, 2014, 07:59 PM
(#7)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
Naturo, you keep dismissing your preflop play as not important, but that is the foundation for why you're getting into tough postflop spots. You keep playing crappy hands then wonder why you're facing difficult postflop decisions.

At 2NL, ABC poker and playing for value is easily enough to post huge winrates and move up stakes.

Preflop, against the UTG shorty, you're not really getting great odds to call with your suited connectors, but the call isn't too bad. However you should be folding to this 3Bet, the villain is making a really big squeeze and at 2NL, this is almost never light unless you have reads otherwise, but you never take notes on your opponents either...

Flop is a really easy fold as Ray and dirt eh have already pointed out. Let's assume your perfect scenario and you have 4 outs which you will hit about 16% of the time if you get to see turn and river. If you can guarantee stacking him when you hit, your required odds are 15.1%, which means that you can call.

However you are never going to get close to realising this equity. Like Ray has already said, you are going to get to see both turn and river extremely rarely as villain is going to bet again (likely just shove) so often. Also, if the comes, it might not be a clean out (where you lose your entire stack) or even if it is, it might kill the action and you won't get paid.

At least you folded the turn!
 
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Tue Mar 04, 2014, 05:07 AM
(#8)
braveslice's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 568
I don’t mind calling 65s against a bit smaller 3bet, but bet like that size tells about his personality who loves big bets and thus is not giving us chances to play draws cheaply.

If you need to think long, it’s better to fold marginal hands at the end, because you give a weak image about yourself, especially against agressive players that is costly. Not that it matters here too much as your image was weak already.

Last edited by braveslice; Tue Mar 04, 2014 at 05:21 AM..
 
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Tue Mar 04, 2014, 07:23 AM
(#9)
NaturoSasuki's Avatar
Since: Dec 2013
Posts: 348
y i missplayed dis one... shouldnt call flop.... cuz even and could kill action
 

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