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10NL - Deep stack spot with bottom set

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10NL - Deep stack spot with bottom set - Tue Mar 04, 2014, 11:05 AM
(#1)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
puke situation after I get 3bet OTF.
Villain is unknown on Zoom

Standard call preflop I think. Flop comes 4cJs9c, now I'm thinking this is a somewhat coordinated flop. I like raising here with a set to balance the times I raise with draws hands like Tc8c, QcTc, AcQc, sometimes with QQ and AJ. I put in the raise and we get 3bet now I'm not happy. I'm thinking JJ, 99?? I don't know if the opponent would also do that with AA, KK, QQ, NFDs, combo draws them being OOP and this deep. Still I felt like calling would be the best option at this point. Turn comes a seemingly blank card and villain bets a quite sizable bet leaving 12.14$. If I call here the pot will be 16.15$ and I can see villain shove river. Looks like they are not going anywhere.

What do you think of our hand's relative strength? How does the board texture affect our decision? And how would you proceed OTT? Would you consider just calling the flop given the depth of money?

 
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Tue Mar 04, 2014, 11:30 AM
(#2)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
I would not raise the flop here. This is where all our problems begin.

Scratch that. Our problems begin with the notion that we don't know anything about our villain. How many tables are they playing? Where are they from? What time is it on that time zone? What day of the week is it? These pieces of information are free expected value.

Consider someone who is up at 3am in Brazil playing 1 table. What are the odds they are in an optimal poker playing state?

Anyways, I would call with bottom set but can understand raising.

What I cannot understand, much less endorse, is raising any of those draws or AJ or QQ. Raising those has to be a large mistake.

Anyways, so I would consider raising the flop given the depth of stacks a mistake. Unless you have a read that this is an inexperienced player who is going to give away their money with AA-QQ, AJ, J9, then calling is going to be superior I think.

Calling allows us to make more informed choices later. We don't have to fold if the flush gets there (but we can) and we can always pair the board, or just call down on some runouts. We preserve our positional advantage.

In any case, once we are three-bet on the flop, calling is better than folding and raising. Raising is the worst option I think. We are getting a good price and still have position.

We get a great turn card. I should note their three-bet size on the flop is reasonably scary. I would not figure them for QQ/KK given this sizing. It looks like a massive draw or an overset.

I guess our best line at this juncture is to call turn and call any non-club river. Maybe we can get away on a K river as well, but I think that is about it. It is true we will be oversetted here a lot, but we don't have enough information on the villain and people lose their minds just often enough to me to call down on non club non king rivers. Raising the turn is reasonably poor I think.
 
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Tue Mar 04, 2014, 11:36 AM
(#3)
rkleefstra's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 2,328
I do think people are 3betting OTF with AA, KK, QQ, NFD, and J9 here, together with JJ and 99.

But the bet OTT looks really stong after all that action on the flop so it make me wonder if our hand is still good enough. Maybe could do this as a semi-bluff, but I do think JJ and 99 are the most likely candidate and we should fold tbh.

Easy to say if you can think so long about a hand. In real life I would prob have 4bet OTF to ~$8-10 and get it in right there only to see a $40-pot going the wrong way
 
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Tue Mar 04, 2014, 02:58 PM
(#4)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
Quote:
Originally Posted by GarethC23 View Post
I would not raise the flop here. This is where all our problems begin.

What I cannot understand, much less endorse, is raising any of those draws or AJ or QQ. Raising those has to be a large mistake.

Anyways, so I would consider raising the flop given the depth of stacks a mistake. Unless you have a read that this is an inexperienced player who is going to give away their money with AA-QQ, AJ, J9, then calling is going to be superior I think.
Do you have any raising range on this flop?
 
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Wed Mar 05, 2014, 10:37 AM
(#5)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
Quote:
Originally Posted by spand42 View Post
Do you have any raising range on this flop?
just 27o
 
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Wed Mar 05, 2014, 11:06 AM
(#6)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Quote:
Originally Posted by GarethC23 View Post
just 27o
well at least you have some backdoors.
 
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Thu Mar 06, 2014, 07:09 AM
(#7)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
HA! So I’ve made all the bad decisions in this hand Raised flop, x/shoved turn
I’d like to put out some scenarios to better understand the decision of not raising and what type of hands to be raising flop with in different situations.
First stop, 100bb effective stacks vs UTG PFR.
Flop: 4cJs9c we have bottom set, do we raise?
Does it make more sense to be raising with AJ and QQ from late position opens when we can get called by more KJ and draws as opposed to raising vs an UTG open with tight range?
What I’m trying to get at here is balancing a flop raising range. For that, let’s assume flop is Qs3s2h can we raise flop with KJo as a bluff? Call with a hand like 7s6s? If we are raising with KJo then what other hands can we raise for value with on this flop besides sets?
How does this change in deep stack situations?
 
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Thu Mar 06, 2014, 07:33 AM
(#8)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
Quote:
Originally Posted by geoVARTA View Post
HA! So I’ve made all the bad decisions in this hand Raised flop, x/shoved turn
I’d like to put out some scenarios to better understand the decision of not raising and what type of hands to be raising flop with in different situations.
First stop, 100bb effective stacks vs UTG PFR.
Flop: 4cJs9c we have bottom set, do we raise?
Does it make more sense to be raising with AJ and QQ from late position opens when we can get called by more KJ and draws as opposed to raising vs an UTG open with tight range?
What I’m trying to get at here is balancing a flop raising range. For that, let’s assume flop is Qs3s2h can we raise flop with KJo as a bluff? Call with a hand like 7s6s? If we are raising with KJo then what other hands can we raise for value with on this flop besides sets?
How does this change in deep stack situations?
I seldom makes sense to play AJ-QQ fast here when you are not the initial raiser unless you have a stone read that the player is a recreational one. Yes of course, had they opened from a weaker position than UTG, raising AJ would be better.

KJo is not specific enough of a bluff.raise. When we are talking about bluff raising hands for balance purposes we need hands that retain their equity well against villains continuing range. So sure, KJ will do so on 9,T and A,T runouts. But having Ks is mandatory if not ideal. KJhh is a better example of a hand in a balanced bluff raising range at certain stack depths, though again villain will be bet.calling all AQhh on that board so you will not have the nuts on heart heart, thus certain stack depths it doesnt make total sense as a participant in a bluff raise, barrel off range.

Anyways, you seem to be really attached to the idea of raising for value on this flop. At this stack depth you should only do so exploitively, that is when you have good reason to assume villain is going to overplay their range. But this was an unknown, so you didnt really know that. A balanced raising range at this stack depth includes hands that are bluffs but can make something strong rarely and hands that can play for all the chips. As stack depth increases the second range is going to shrink to JJ.

In 100bb stack situations it simply is not that big a deal to get it in here set over set and you should raise 44 on the flop versus an unknown. But consider the difference between 100 and 200bb in the set over set scenario. You are getting an extra 100bb in with absolutely no equity when we compare the situations.

Not only is villain going to be willing to go with more than just sets for 100bb, but the cost of getting it in versus oversets is lower. These are contributing factors to why your stack off range should narrow as depth increases. Set over set, as I have written elsewhere in the HA forum, is the nightmare scenario of NLH. It is the worst equity situation you can be in. Thus it is worth avoiding.

The other point about shoving turn... calling turn to call river is always going to be better than shoving turn here, or almost always. You have position and if villain is airballing he is not going to call a turn shove. So keep airballs in, because you need them. Keeping villains range wide in this situation is the only mitigation you have to disaster.
 
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Thu Mar 06, 2014, 08:32 AM
(#9)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
I can see it now. It's not that im attached with the idea of raising for value but more attached to the idea of raising a balanced range (because I overthink new stuff I learn :P )discounting the fact that the villain is raising from UTG, is an unknown, and that we are deep. I'll tell you this my turn shove was of frustatrion because as soon as I raised the flop I remembered a post, I think Roland GTX had up here if I'm not mistaken with a similar spot. So that shove was the worst of the worst because I added on my mistake with a second mistake. Definite frustration shove.

Note to self: Exit table after 150bb for now you deep stacked in-experienced noob
 
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Thu Mar 06, 2014, 08:58 AM
(#10)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
Quote:
Originally Posted by geoVARTA View Post
So that shove was the worst of the worst because I added on my mistake with a second mistake. Definite frustration shove.
Been there, done that many times
 
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Thu Mar 06, 2014, 10:50 AM
(#11)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Raising something like A3ss or 87ss might be ok because it's too weak to call but has lots of good turns we can barrel on.
 

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