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5nl FR Zoom - KK

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5nl FR Zoom - KK - Wed Mar 05, 2014, 08:25 AM
(#1)
pullin1988's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 717
Hi guys,


Currently having a stab at 5nl - adjusting

Please could you analyse my hand below.

Really wasn't sure, so went for the more cautious approach on this one - if you can call, calling a raise on the turn cautious - lol

At 5nl (although I have played a small sample so far) there seems to be a lot of squeezing and raising on later streets going on. So therefore I am opting to call raises more since seeing FDs raising flops, etc.

Please let me know your thoughts on villians at 5nl, e.g. more aggressive, etc.

Villains stats are the following:

178 hands VPIP/PFR/AGG/Cbet fold 13/10/4.3/60

against this villain I can't see much that got there on the turn. I thought at the time it's more swayed for him to have a set that's raising on the turn. I thought I would call re-evaluate on the river. Once he bets I believed he was strong. With the 4 on the river, I then thought possible Full house, or maybe he did have KT, or something for a made straight.





Cheers,

Matt

Last edited by pullin1988; Wed Mar 05, 2014 at 08:34 AM..
 
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Wed Mar 05, 2014, 08:47 AM
(#2)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
I think we should call river. We block a lot of straight combos. I also dont expect a 13/10 to be flatting T8s vs a MP open.

We are then left with a a few set combos, combo draws like KQhh that decided to raise turn and two pair combos that are counterfeited.

Here's quick look of a range I gave him on the turn and how we fair on the river;

Code:
Board: 9hQc4d Jh 4s
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    35.71%  35.71%   0.00% { KsKc }
BU     64.29%  64.29%   0.00% { JdJs, JdJc, JsJc, 9d9s, 9d9c, 9s9c, 4h4c, AhQh, KhQh, QdJd, QsJs, KdTd, KhTh, QhTh }
With the pot odds we only need to be right 32% of the time so I would call.

Last edited by birdayy; Wed Mar 05, 2014 at 10:44 AM..
 
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Wed Mar 05, 2014, 09:05 AM
(#3)
GamblingProp's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 714
Why do you call turn, if you are going to fold on the river on one of the best card for us?
I think you should fold turn, although they might sometimes semibluff there, you have showed too much strength at every street so I don't consider it highly likely.
But as played, I call river for sure.
 
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Wed Mar 05, 2014, 09:42 AM
(#4)
pullin1988's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 717
Cheers guys,


Cheers Birdayy for the analysis - this equity stuff is something I really do need to do away from the tables, as based on what you put, I also think I should call given the pot odds and all.


I really appreciate the help.

GamblingProp: The only answer I can provide to your question is based on the decision that I described in the original post. If you think this is flawed then I need to have a good hard look on improving my decision making process within the amount of time bank you have in zoom.

Cheers guys,

Matt
 
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Wed Mar 05, 2014, 10:05 AM
(#5)
pullin1988's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 717
Gambling Prop question

If you think I should fold turn, then why would you call river? If the river card hasn't changed much then isn't my call equity (I think I need around 20% or better to call) better on the turn than the river (basing this on the range that Birdayy has provided above)?

I think I lack some understanding so if you could answer that question that would be great.
 
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Wed Mar 05, 2014, 10:13 AM
(#6)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Turn is still a call. Vs that range OTT we have this;

Code:
Board: 9hQc4d Jh
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    24.36%  23.72%   0.64% { KsKc }
BU     75.64%  75.00%   0.64% { JdJs, JdJc, JsJc, 9d9s, 9d9c, 9s9c, 4h4s, 4h4c, 4s4c, AhQh, KhQh, QdJd, QsJs, KdTd, KhTh, QhTh }
We need 21.9% to call so its fine calling. You just need to be careful on a lot of rivers.

Here is a scenario analyzer on various rivers of our hand vs his range;



You can see that from the above graph that a 4, 9, T or K are better rivers for us.

I suggest downloading equilab and mucking around with it. It's really handy and will help you visualize ranges a bit better.

Last edited by birdayy; Wed Mar 05, 2014 at 10:45 AM..
 
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Wed Mar 05, 2014, 10:27 AM
(#7)
pullin1988's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 717
Cheers Birdayy,

This is really helpful stuff. I didn't factor in how the villain could improve on the river, thus my equity will be different, but still a call against that range.

And on the river it seems that when a 4 or 9 pairs the board, then villain is less likely to have had a set (if villain did then he made quads) - I get it. Therefore my equity improves because I would statistically more likely be facing less sets.

Equilab downloading as we speak - it will become my best friend

Cheers,

Matt

Last edited by pullin1988; Wed Mar 05, 2014 at 11:21 AM..
 
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Wed Mar 05, 2014, 11:04 AM
(#8)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
Great discussion so far.

FWIW if QT is in villain's range, I don't see why Q9s also isn't, which makes the river even more of a call.

I think calling the minbet on the turn is best because I've seen plenty of villains do this with complete air. Their river play normally tells a bigger truth about the strength of their hand after they minraise the turn.

Like GamblingProp says, this river card is one of the best in the deck for us and he didn't bet pot or shove, so I think calling must be the +EV play.
 
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Wed Mar 05, 2014, 02:17 PM
(#9)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,363
I think the turn is a fold, actually. It's a classic Baluga spot. It's full ring Zoom 5NL and villain plays 13/10. I'm a huge fan of Equilab, but I don't need that to tell me when someone has a set of 9s.


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