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25c 90m sng, 98o, shove correct or not ?

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25c 90m sng, 98o, shove correct or not ? - Thu Mar 06, 2014, 02:21 PM
(#1)
Luniaril's Avatar
Since: Jan 2014
Posts: 33
i had 6bb stack in sb, shoved 98o should i folded and waited another orbit ?

villain 5 had 24/16/AF 1 stats in (59) hand sample size. high fold to 3bet with a very low sample size.

 
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Thu Mar 06, 2014, 04:46 PM
(#2)
Quaquaversal's Avatar
Since: Dec 2013
Posts: 57
Your fold equity here is just about 0% due to the pot odds, I'd probably wait for a better hand/situation
 
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Thu Mar 06, 2014, 07:50 PM
(#3)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
I think 98o is too poor a hand to be re-shoving with here. Like Quaquaversal said, you essentially have no fold equity here, so you need a hand that's going to play well against an average strong/medium-strength hand which will largely consist of higher cards and even overpairs.

Villian's PFR is 16% - let's adjust this higher because he's on the CO, let's say 25%. Against the top 25% of hands, 98o is a 2:1 underdog, a really bad situation for you to be in. This equity doesn't change too much no matter what range you give villain until you start assuming he raises his top 35% of hands or more.

You'll likely get opportunities where you can open-shove much wider or actually pick up a decent value hand to move/call all-in with in the future, so there's no need to go broke with 98o vs a raise here.
 
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Thu Mar 06, 2014, 07:54 PM
(#4)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
Another consideration is that it seems like you're either down to 11 or 10 players and you might be able to survive the FT bubble and start to ladder up a couple of spots when the pay jumps start to become significantly bigger.

Whilst your main focus at this point should be to go for the win, if you're in a marginal spot and you're unsure what to do, having an opportunity to ladder up might swing the decision to a fold. Conversely if you're in last place, then trying to avoid getting blinded out might lead to you calling wider.
 

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