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10NL ZOOM - KK facing turn raise / give up?

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10NL ZOOM - KK facing turn raise / give up? - Fri Mar 07, 2014, 01:16 PM
(#1)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Should I be folding vs this turn raise? Or C,XF OTR?

Villain(93): 20/13/4.0
TOT ATS: 31

 
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Fri Mar 07, 2014, 11:17 PM
(#2)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
I think we should peel the turn / reevaluate river.
 
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Sun Mar 09, 2014, 10:37 AM
(#3)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi dirt eh,

Given stats, this opponent doesn't look to be that great with the gap in VPIP/PFR; I would be inclined to call if I think they might overplay their AQ here but being OOP really sucks because if we call we have a tough river decision. I'd usually bet/fold turn against tight opponents and could call against loose weak opponents.

Preflop I think I would have preferred a slightly bigger size given stack size and opponent; same goes for the flop. I want to extract more value when I can.

To call the turn means we need them to be raising with AQ, and some bluffs. Which means they need to float the flop with AQ and raise turn or call flop with 99/88 and turn their hands as a bluff OTT (I think this opponent type might be incapable of such line; not that I think it's a good line to do so given we 3bet and fired two streets) - would be helpful to look at their fold to cbet stat at this point.

Let's think of hands that would call our 3bet preflop and call the flop:
Given the stack depth I think it would be correct to call with all sort of SCs, PPs, AQ, AJs, ATs, KQs
When they call the flop, I think they will have TP (AT, QTs, JTs, T9s), underpairs (99/88), overpairs (QQ/JJ), sets (TT/77), OESD (98s), Overcard floats with backdoor equity (AK, AQs, AJs, KQs, QJs)
I think alot of the hands that call the flop would call or fold the turn and only few hands would raise us.
Think of a hand like AcJc, AcTc, JcTc, or JJ; would hands that pick equity OTT bluff raise at this point?
I think the hands that raise us here will be: AhQh, AsQs (If they are bad to overplay TP; very doubtful about that), QQ, TT, 77, QTs which really makes me want to fold since there are not enough combos of TP or bluffs that we beat and also because there are no great ways for us to improve by the river.

Also if you look at their PFR stat and aggression they are raising a tight range and being aggressive which is very reasonable since they will have a strong range that can be played aggressively for value.

Last edited by geoVARTA; Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 10:40 AM..
 

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