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5nl zoom laying dowh TP

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5nl zoom laying dowh TP - Mon Mar 10, 2014, 03:47 PM
(#1)
Praydk's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 504

17/15
wtsd 10
85 hands
Decided to go bet-check-bet vs a conservative player, but he didn't let me.
The river price seems so good but would he do this with K9 and below? Preflop his calling range(particularly Kx)shouldn't be lower than KJs I assume. A flush draw isn't bluffing the river after I called the turn imo.
What hands in his range do I beat?
should be good 23%
 
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Mon Mar 10, 2014, 03:57 PM
(#2)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Why X this turn??? BET, BET, BET! The 7 changes nothing. And if it changed something he's going to let you know. I would have called this river bet!

Villains hand looks like 99-JJ. He might have a K but I doubt it. Once again I don't see villains taking the lead here OTT with a K or a 7... In my experience at the lower stakes they're happy checking a 7 or a K back here.

Once you X the turn OOP, hands become even harder to play. Best line OOP is bet bet bet. Very simple to play.

If you were IP in this hand I would have taken a B, X, B line.

Thanks!
 
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Mon Mar 10, 2014, 04:24 PM
(#3)
Praydk's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 504
Well it looks like a hand worth 2 streets of value vs this specific opponent, can you squeeze 3 streets out of it? I decided those streets to be flop and river as I fear only and Ace comming, or am I missing something?
 
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Mon Mar 10, 2014, 04:47 PM
(#4)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Against this villain... sometimes you'll get three streets. I still like BET FOLDING FTW. This villain could call down with TT-JJ, maybe QQ if they only CC pre. I've found at the lower stakes you can bet TPGK for 3 streets and get called by second pair.

Sometimes conservative players will look at 3 barrels being bluffs and they'll call with weaker holdings than you think. The other problem with these "conservative types" is that say they hold JJ. If we take a line of B, B, X. For some reason they end up deciding that it's time to bet their jacks OTR... I don't know why they do this but they do. So... ya BETBETBETFOLD! Even against good TAG villains, some Tags will lay down KJ and maybe KQ here!

But against a TRUE TAG I would take a line of X, B, B or XC, XC, X!

 
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Tue Mar 11, 2014, 02:23 AM
(#5)
Praydk's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 504
Quote:
This villain could call down with TT-JJ, maybe QQ if they only CC pre. I've found at the lower stakes you can bet TPGK for 3 streets and get called by second pair.
Quote:
So... ya BETBETBETFOLD! Even against good TAG villains, some Tags will lay down KJ and maybe KQ here!
1)So we look to turn TP into a bluff?
2)???He calls 3 streets with second pair but folds top pair?
3)if a tag cold calls JJ-QQ then he cold calls AK aswell,
TT-QQ = 15 combos
KJ-KA = 24 combos
even if he 3bets AK and QQ
TT-JJ = 9 combos
KJ-KQ = 16 combos
doesn't look like a profitable bet to me
Highly doubt he is ever calling TT 3 streets tho.
 
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Tue Mar 11, 2014, 04:26 AM
(#6)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
3 streets with KT against a 17/15? yeh-no. not happening.

I would actually x/c flop. We aren't getting value from much worse and it's a super dry flop bar the flush draw.

Depending on the board runout, we can can bet the turn if he checks back, x/c again if he bets the flop, or if the turn goes x/x, go for a river value bet.

It also protects our checking range having a decent KX.
 
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Tue Mar 11, 2014, 05:26 AM
(#7)
euan12345's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 8
Villain could have been calling with many medium PP or even floating with A high here on the flop, as it is a hard board to hit. so by checking turn a lot of aggo players auto bet, and since you did show weakness by cking flop you may have made it all the harder for yourself. OTR though that bet sizing is screaming 'call me' so, without a read that he bluffs small i think that this fold is fine, but you might have gotten to showdown on your terms by betting flop and turn then cking river hoping for a ck behind as player in 2nl seem to play a little more honestly when bet into twice i feel. Gl at the tables. Euan PS this is only my first post doing this hope was ok
 
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Tue Mar 11, 2014, 10:47 AM
(#8)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Quote:
Originally Posted by Praydk View Post
1)So we look to turn TP into a bluff?
2)???He calls 3 streets with second pair but folds top pair?
3)if a tag cold calls JJ-QQ then he cold calls AK aswell,
TT-QQ = 15 combos
KJ-KA = 24 combos
even if he 3bets AK and QQ
TT-JJ = 9 combos
KJ-KQ = 16 combos
doesn't look like a profitable bet to me
Highly doubt he is ever calling TT 3 streets tho.
1. Yes, sometimes.
2. Yes, sometimes.
3. No, you will see a lot of players CC JJ and QQ but they overplay AK at these lower stakes. You're more likely to see villains CC AK vs. a UTG raise but not from a CO.

Pray, here's the problem.
OOP with this hand: If we bet the flop, and the villain calls, there are more hands that beat us than don't. So, I would have taken a X, B, B line here.

As played, once we cbet the flop... (which people don't fold too that often anymore because everyone knows what a cbet is). Check the turn, which looks like we give up and now the villain's "float" has worked, they bet, we call. And now OTR we check... what do you think this villain is going to do with QJ of spades? Do you really think he's going to check QJ of spades back to you?

As played I would have called OTR. But if you want an easier line, I would X, B, B.

Just my opinion, thanks!
 
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Tue Mar 11, 2014, 12:57 PM
(#9)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Interesting spot. Against a looser more aggressive opponent I would consider calling river; here I think folding is okay as I would expect them to check back showdownable hands OTR. I would also consider this line if I had KJ/KQ instead of KT because they could have a Kx that we actually beat.
Considering villain type and board texture, I would either a) x/c flop or b) bet flop and turn small and check river.
Reasons for both lines are a) flop is seemingly dry and unlikely to be outdrawn, we can't get called by worse Kx and we can't get 3 streets of value with our hand. We also balance our flop check range as birdayy mentioned. b) we have a showdownable hand but would be hard to bluff catch with so by betting small OTT we allow them to call with enough hands that would check back river.
 
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Tue Mar 11, 2014, 01:23 PM
(#10)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,359
After check-calling turn, I call on this blank river. Villain has a missed flush draw pretty often, so his river betting range is polarized, with much of his range being hands that can't win at showdown, hence the bluff. (He doesn't have many Kx hands in pre-flop calling range and he'd probably check back KQs-KTs anyway).


Bracelet Winner
 
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Wed Mar 12, 2014, 07:40 AM
(#11)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
Definitely too optimistic to try extract three streets of value out of this.

My original thoughts were I quite liked the line that Praydk took except I'd call river, but having read the arguments for just x/c flop, this might be a superior line, even though you're giving a free card if he happens to have spades, which is unlikely.
 

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