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10NL ZOOM 6-max, AKo IP 3B Pot River Decision

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10NL ZOOM 6-max, AKo IP 3B Pot River Decision - Tue Mar 11, 2014, 12:08 AM
(#1)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Villain is basically unknown...

SB(17):20/20/6.0

River decision... Call or fold?

 
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Tue Mar 11, 2014, 06:19 AM
(#2)
euan12345's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 8
new to this analysis forum, but am willing to give it a shot for you . is the 6.0 agg factor or 3bet? i guess that it is such a small sample that not many conclusions can be drawn from this anyway.
Kind of a tough spot for you, villain 3bet you pretty huge even though he was OOP. calling instead of 4betting i think is fine (would much rather a 4bet if HERO was OOP) your flop call is fine then OTT this should really be a card that will sometimes slow ppl down but not VILLAIN so by now he may have a big A maybe a turned FD, could have AA but we do hold blockers, so the call is fine. River is where things get interesting, he is repping a really strong range, 44,88 i do not think he would 3bet OOP with, TT+,ATs+,KQs,AQo+ I think is a decent range for 3betting an UTG open OOP he is giving you about 2.5-1 on your call and against this PREFLOP range it is a call i think going by the math.

Board: 8:heart:8:spade:4:club: A:club: Q:club:
       Equity     Win     Tie
HERO    64.86%  56.76%   8.11% { AdKh }
VILLAIN     35.14%  27.03%   8.11% { TT+, ATs+, KQs, AQo+ }

however by the river his actions have narrowed his range maybe to near nuts or thinner value than he should have been betting and the fold is a disciplined one as he is now repping a range of something like: QQ+,AJs+,KQs,AQo+ which has an equity outcome of-

Board: 8:heart:8:spade:4:club: A:club: Q:club:
       Equity     Win     Tie
HERO    43.48%  30.43%  13.04% { AdKh }
VILLAIN     56.52%  43.48%  13.04% { QQ+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+ }

Hope this was ok for a first timer all the best Euan

Last edited by euan12345; Tue Mar 11, 2014 at 07:01 AM..
 
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Tue Mar 11, 2014, 11:01 AM
(#3)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
euan, thanks! yes the 6.0 is his PostF aggression. Samples size is smalllllll. I think AQo would 3bet OOP. The only hands I was worried about were AQ, AA, QQ.

I've actually ran into regulars that will 3bet ATs out of the blinds and call a 4bet OOP with the same junk. As seen here. I think a lot of players are confused in regards to the whole 3betting idea these days.

Player(1k hands): 16/13/2.0
TOT 3bet: 4.8
HM2: autorate ABC

 
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Tue Mar 11, 2014, 01:12 PM
(#4)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Yuk!

I'm sometimes folding AKo when I open raise from UTG and get 3bet from a tight opponent; given the opponent is unknown maybe a call is okay. 4betting and stacking off I think might be too ambitious. I'm not super happy with the float without any backdoor equity. Turn is a mandatory call. River sucks!

we need to be good 28.6% of the time to make the call. Which probably means we need them to bet with 1 combo of worse Ax and bluff with 1 combo of say JJ or KK. I might call a non club Q sometimes but I'm more inclined to fold on this specific river card. The board is paired and a backdoor flush just hit and they keep betting. I think folding is less of a mistake than calling here as its less likely we see them bluffing and giving up on a split against such aggressive action is probably okay as opposed to hero calling.
 
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Tue Mar 11, 2014, 01:20 PM
(#5)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Thanks George, yes Yuk indeed. OTF, float was just for the sake that I most likely have the best hand here unless the villain has a pair. I'm easily folding to a second barrel OTT if no A no K comes.

I tanked a long time OTR. Villain snap shoved the river. Which I thought was weird and made me think that they had a hand like AQ. I really tried to fold but I've seen so many villains show up with Ax combos that they're 3betting out of the blinds. AJ, AT, AXs...

I called.... villain had AA. hahaha
 

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