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Get your calculators out !

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Get your calculators out ! - Sun Mar 16, 2014, 03:13 PM
(#1)
Darkman61's Avatar
Since: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,225
BronzeStar
This isn't a bad beat story. They bore the pants off me. I just wanna know exactly how bad I'm running.

Every time some numpty has shoved on me with suited cards this month (and I've called) he's hit the flush. EVERY time. Fourteen in a row. Where's stato? What are the odds of that? It must be like hitting the lottery in reverse.
 
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Sun Mar 16, 2014, 04:01 PM
(#2)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
All I can do is point you to a variance calculator

http://pokerdope.com/tournament-variance-calculator/

Any combination of actions can happen if you give enough time. Just be careful you're not pricing in your opponents with their flush draws. It could be other spects of your game that is lacking but you only just notice the flush draws hitting. Don't automatically blame your opponents when swings like this happen but they do happen.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Mon Mar 17, 2014, 05:45 AM
(#3)
Darkman61's Avatar
Since: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,225
BronzeStar
There's no "pricing in" applicable Oval. These are all pre flop shoves. Not that it would affect the odds of them hitting anyway.
 
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Mon Mar 17, 2014, 10:50 AM
(#4)
pullin1988's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 717
It depends on what your holding. As you said the odds of hitting certain hands doesn't change, but the percentage of them winning/losing will be based on heros cards VS villains cards.

For example,

AA vs Td9d equity to win is 77% vs 24%

55 vs Td9d equity to win is 48% vs 52%

but if they are hitting the flush everytime, and that is what's beating you only, then I am not sure.

Is it literally just the flush that beats you?

Cheers,

Matt

Last edited by pullin1988; Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 10:52 AM..
 

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