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5nl zoom QQ horrible turn spot

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5nl zoom QQ horrible turn spot - Mon Mar 17, 2014, 10:26 AM
(#1)
OMG itz Sams's Avatar
Since: Oct 2013
Posts: 7
http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/rep...ash=3BCC1EF3E7



I dont have any stats on Villain, the only assumption I made was that as he didn't have a full stack I leaned towards judging him as a recreational player.

I see I could have 4bet pre but I flatted as IP and felt with a value range of JJ+ AK I was only ahead of JJ and flipping AK.. or dominated. I felt if I 4bet I folded all worse hands, effectively bluffing QQ

Post flop: He C-bet pots, and the board is quite wet but doesnt smack a 3betting range IMO (TT is pair+draw) (JJ pair+gutter) but the lead makes me think value range KK+ with a large size used to stop me drawing or maybe set or two pair w/3bet connectors.

Turn: I throw up, please help...
 
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Mon Mar 17, 2014, 10:34 AM
(#2)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
PF: I think I would choose to 4BAI jam preflop. It's a close spot. Calling is also ok, but I would be looking to GII OTF with no A, no K.
OTF: When the villain bets $1. I'm happy putting all the money in on this flop. There's $2.00 in the pot and he only has $2.90 behind. Once you call his flop bet, There will be $3.00 in the pot and he's most likely shoving ANY CARD OTT.
OTT: This card is really bad for us. I would fold. Villain has TT+ here IMO.
 
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Mon Mar 17, 2014, 10:50 AM
(#3)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
I prefer going with it pre vs a random non-fullstack.

As played yeah just GII on this flop.
 
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Mon Mar 17, 2014, 11:08 AM
(#4)
OMG itz Sams's Avatar
Since: Oct 2013
Posts: 7
Thanks for the advice, one of the reasons I didn't shuv pre flop is because at 5NL zoom I have found I am rarely called by worse. I almost never see JJ or TT, and AQ is very unlikely due to my hand. So I felt I was either dominated of flipping at worst, or at best I was folding out his bluffs/ light raises with the best hand. Thats why I flatted. On flop I felt the same, AK would fold to a shove. JJ and TT was betting with the worst hand. So again I felt either way ahead or way behind. Turn completed so much I felt it was hard to continue. I see merit to possibly shuving flop to protect my equity and maybe this was the mistake.

I'm not against shuving QQ pre, but in my brief experience it doesn't seem profitable at 5NL zoom. Am I way off with this assumption?
 
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Mon Mar 17, 2014, 01:08 PM
(#5)
braveslice's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 568
Removed, data was wrong, Sorry OMG.

Last edited by braveslice; Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 08:48 PM..
 
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Mon Mar 17, 2014, 02:17 PM
(#6)
OMG itz Sams's Avatar
Since: Oct 2013
Posts: 7
Wow, Thanks so much for posting that braveslice.

I am very bad with the numbers side of things so it's great to have some help looking into that aspect. It is actually a lot closer than I thought mathematically. Though on this data it seems still a slight losing play?

It's great to get so many views on lines for the hand, some of what has been suggested I hadn't even considered.

I wonder if this data would suggest shuving flop is correct as I believe vs this pre flop range my AK equity would now be increased 75% but I would be crushed by 88 and 99 and TT would have increased equity. 75s would have a gutter and outs to 2pair.

Im off to do some math. Thanks again for the responses.
 
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Mon Mar 17, 2014, 02:41 PM
(#7)
braveslice's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 568
Great! Don't forget to post your math here

Remember that these hands are for every position, so even the blind wars are included.

Last edited by braveslice; Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 02:44 PM..
 
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Mon Mar 17, 2014, 08:20 PM
(#8)
OMG itz Sams's Avatar
Since: Oct 2013
Posts: 7
Ive done some math using the stats braveslice kindly provided. Against the 3 betting range Villain was assigned in the previous post I have adapted these odds adding in the flop and using equlab to crunch the numbers.

With the value range above I would only have 36.71% on that exact flop. Of course I understand this doesn't take in to account any bluffing range but If I shuv flop instead of calling then this range become mute anyway. (Although if I am bluffed on the turn obviously a flop shuv would have stopped this.)

Still not sure if I should have folded turn as played though, but with the aggression I face I found it hard to continue...

I have posted my math below just because im terrible at it and may well have miscalculated. feel free to correct
vs AA 18 @ 11.62% 18/49*11.62= 4.26%
vs KK 8 @ 11.62% 8/49*11.62= 1.89%
vs AK 9 @ 72.44% 9/49*72.44= 13.30%
vs JJ 8 @ 75.25% 8/49*75.25= 12.28%
vs TT 2 @ 61.72% 2/49*61.72= 2.52%
vs 99 2 @ 11.82% 2/49*11.82= 0.48%
vs 88 1 @ 12.12% 1/49*12.12= 0.25%
vs AQ 1 @ 84.85% 1/49*84.85= 1.73%
(results rounded to 2DP)
36.71%

Last edited by OMG itz Sams; Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 08:35 PM..
 
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Mon Mar 17, 2014, 08:50 PM
(#9)
braveslice's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 568
Sorry OMG, the data was wrong. I have been playing with the filter an hour and it seems not to work, I asked help on the forum.
 
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Mon Mar 17, 2014, 09:00 PM
(#10)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,324
I play it exactly the same way as OP.
FWIW, when the SB 3-bets vs my open, I'm only 4-betting KK+, as I want to keep any light 3-bets in the pot, and I'm happy to play post-flop in position with quite a wide range, of which QQ is the absolute top.
Flop is a call, turn is a fold, since villain is never getting AK in unless he's completely crazy. Well played imo.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Tue Mar 18, 2014, 11:07 AM
(#11)
PSO-xflixx's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,119
(Live Trainer)
I like your line and I think the turn should be a fold. It's weird to see villain shoving this turn the board gets scary but some people just shove out of sheer frustration with KK/AA in that spot and he may also play AKdd, JJ or TT this way. Overall I guess we won't have much equity against his range.

All alternate lines like 4-betting pre and shoving flop are possible too and I wouldn't mind either depending on my impression of villain. The weaker villain you perceive to be (given stacksize he may be more of a recreational player) I would be fine 4-bet/calling preflop or stacking off OTF already as I feel his range may be wider.


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