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$11 7.5K : QTo vs BB HU : River re-reraise fold/merge line

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$11 7.5K : QTo vs BB HU : River re-reraise fold/merge line - Mon Mar 17, 2014, 09:07 PM
(#1)
Marc Rae's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 505
Hi Dave n crew

I've been going through AB's bluffing theory series like the bible the past few months, and have been working on identifying spots where I could/should run river reraise bluffs vs level thinkers.

Villain is a reg. with multi 6 figure total winnings last year. I have 93 hands on him. So am treating him at least as a 3rd level thinker.

16/12/9.4/0

-Seen defend BB with Q4 with 50+BB. And thin value bet on AA845 board.
-HU to the flop, villain is defending his BB 56%.
-In multiway pots when in the BB, villain's vpip is 29%.
-Villain doubled up his stack the hand prior.
-Villain has a depolarized river bet range, which incl. bottom pair/tptk approx. 45-55% pot.

Villain would see me as:
22/17/16/44

Opted to check flop as villain is likely to float or xr on this board, and although the flop isn't static, the board is likely to hit his calling range vs my preflop raising range. Villain has also seen me in the last few orbits, call a flop xr/call turn/fold river. So the plan is a line going into the river, where I don't want to necessarily leverage FE on the turn vs his turn bet.

AB specific notes-
Bluff target: top pair and lower, Q+ to ace high.
Weak capped range: A high.
Bluff candidate: 3
Bluff result: Increase 33% stack.

For the times villain has combinations with a 6 or flush vs the times I'm folding out his weak capped range.. ie. airs, weak 1 pair or even top pair, A high, K high, Q high.. I can re-raise here near pot which means I need this bluff to work approx 50% time to be profitable. It's an easy fold to a 3bet on the river. I'm not expecting to fold out a 6, or 2 pair, fh, and flushes here as these holdings are not my bluffing targets.

What is the minimal risk (bet) I need to make here with sizing? ie. is there a possible cheaper way to accomplish this? Primarly also leveraging a low spr and villain calling off is approx 10% of their stack... but also considering that it is hard for me to show up with a bluff here.

Since I have included top pair as the upper range for a bluffing target, should I be edging this towards 6600? Although sizing did work, just mindful of the sizing here. I could still raise/fold with 19BB here.


Not interested in should have folded turn comments, as I am opting to proceed and plan with a line vs villain's weaker capped range/folding range vs my perceived wider value range when I continue on the turn in this spot.

Thanks!


Not sure why boom is not working, but here is the link

Last edited by Marc Rae; Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 09:10 PM..
 
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Mon Mar 17, 2014, 10:43 PM
(#2)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
Quote:
Not interested in should have folded turn comments, as I am opting to proceed and plan with a line vs villain's weaker capped range/folding range vs my perceived wider value range when I continue on the turn in this spot.
I see some problems here. Why would villain have a weaker capped range here? because he didnt 3b and can't have AA/AK/KK?

The strongest hands on this board include a 6 in them, which is all over his BB flatting range here as your preface makes clear. So he can have all the full houses, both straights, and flushes. 99 is the only full house we can really rule out.

So I don't see his range as capped at all, if he can have the strongest hands. I would expect this bluff raise of yours to only fold out his air. So some of that like K3 beats you and that's good. But I don't see him folding much with showdown value. Sure, its hard for you to have a bluff. But if he thinks about it, how he views you, how could you have value? You would have bet this wet flop with so many hands in his eyes, esp the hands that boat up on the turn. You would have raised trips pretty often on the turn. You can never have a straight.

So basically you are repping some thin value raise with a flush that you didn't bet on hte flop. Also unlikely, from his perspective, no matter what you say your checking back tendencies are in practice, he only knows them in theory.

I don't mind checking back flop. I think I would rather raise the turn. I think probably betting flop and raising turn are better than the line you ended up taking here.
 
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Tue Mar 18, 2014, 12:26 AM
(#3)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
I really prefer cbetting here with Q high. We don't have SDV against a large % of his range, but we have a large amount of equity. If we had AT i would much prefer checking back the flop for those reasons.

Think about all the great turns we can barrel. J, Q, K, 7 and an A.

As played your line isn't consistent with any standardly played hand. Yeah it's good to have flush draws in your checking back range for balance but he doesn't know that. That leaves a badly played 44 and not much else?

I really don't think we need to get fancy here in an $11 tourney when the standard line is a lot more +EV.
 
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Tue Mar 18, 2014, 12:48 AM
(#4)
Marc Rae's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 505
Thanks for the input Gareth/birdayy.

I think the way I'm wording my thoughts here is misleading. I'm not saying he can't be capped , I meant that when I'm ranging him I'm separating those which are polarized leading to the river vs the range I've put him on as my bluff target, which I'm calling capped.

And because that is what I am bluffing against, that's the direction of my text. I am folding any 3bet on the river anyway.. and it's not a play I'm doing everytime. I guess the trigger(s) to pull this line may not have been optimal/ideal on my part, but I'm cool to put it out there to be critiqued and evaluated.

There's a point you make here about going for the b/xr line. What I understand is that when going for these multistreet bluffs, you want to make the villain call at least once, as it adds value when you take the pot down. So if he did have air, I may have gotten the same value if/only if he were to donk the turn after calling my flop cbet... but only 1 bet if I checked back the flop and x/r him on the turn.


And valid points made by birdayy.. sure I get it. But I think vs these v.good regs, varying away from standard lines occasionally can have merit so as not be as exploited as the next player.
It may be only an 11 tourny, but like e.g. SM, you play the table accordingly, not by the buyin.
 

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