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50nl HU - Awkward spot w/ monster draw OTT

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50nl HU - Awkward spot w/ monster draw OTT - Tue Mar 18, 2014, 11:24 AM
(#1)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Stats

btn stl%: 97, sb call%: 30, 3b%: 33, flop x/c: 40%, flop x/r: 20%, AF, 8.8, hands: 201



With so much equity on the flop im pretty happy 3b/calling.

It gets awkward when he x/raise/calls the flop.

Gives such a high 3b% i'd expect all set combos to 3b pre. I'd also expect his straights to 4b shove the flop (QJ and J7. 76 MAY call).

Here's a rough range I gave him for shoving the turn. This includes two pairs, the bottom end of the straight and big draws like Qd6d.

Board: 9s8dTd3h
Equity Win Tie
MP2 34.07% 32.44% 1.63% { Kd7d }
MP3 65.93% 64.31% 1.63% { Jd9d, Th9h, Tc9c, Th8h, Ts8s, Tc8c, 9h8h, 9c8c, Qd6d, 7h6h, 7s6s, 7c6c, Jd5d, Jd4d, Jd3d, Th9d, Th9c, Ts9d, Ts9h, Ts9c, Tc9d, Tc9h, Th8s, Th8c, Ts8h, Ts8c, Tc8h, Tc8s, 9d8h, 9d8s, 9d8c, 9h8s, 9h8c, 9c8h, 9c8s, 7h6d, 7h6s, 7h6c, 7s6d, 7s6h, 7s6c, 7c6d, 7c6h, 7c6s }

We are getting 2.5:1 on a call off OTT which means we need 29% equity. I think we have to call off here?

Last edited by birdayy; Tue Mar 18, 2014 at 11:35 AM..
 
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Tue Mar 18, 2014, 11:50 AM
(#2)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Heads-up play, I would lean towards stacking off here. As played I think I would be Xing back OTT if I wasn't happy stacking off OTT when the villain comes over the top.

I'd range him to a more nut-ted range though:

[SIZE=2.5]
Board: 9:spade:8:diamond:T:diamond: 3:heart:
       Equity     Win     Tie
BU     26.49%  26.49%   0.00% { Kd7d }
SB     73.51%  73.51%   0.00% { JJ-88, AJs, QJs, QJo }
[/SIZE]
 
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Tue Mar 18, 2014, 11:56 AM
(#3)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Your ranging is flawed because of his 3b%. Even if they are in his flatting range, I disagree that any of the above hands except AJ would flat a flop 3b.

Last edited by birdayy; Tue Mar 18, 2014 at 11:59 AM..
 
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Tue Mar 18, 2014, 12:07 PM
(#4)
PSO-xflixx's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,119
(Live Trainer)
You can figure out turnplay pretty much by the math and I think you already did quite well at that so yeah I'd bet/call this off.

I would probably utilize position better in that spot and decline a 3-bet. The board allows for too many combos that will not fold much and even raise back so we are pretty much just forcing the spot to become a flip.

As played I'd also 3-bet much larger OTF and bet bigger OTT to optimize SPR and increase FE by a margin (if possible). We also lay ourselves a better price to call it off (which is not desirable ofc but probably more close to optimal).


Live Trainer



 
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Tue Mar 18, 2014, 12:12 PM
(#5)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Quote:
Originally Posted by PSO-xflixx View Post
As played I'd also 3-bet much larger OTF and bet bigger OTT to optimize SPR and increase FE by a margin (if possible). We also lay ourselves a better price to call it off (which is not desirable ofc but probably more close to optimal).
I think this depends on whether you want to make it a 2 street game or a 3 street game.

If 2 street you can 3b the flop to $17 and shove turn or go smaller like I did to shove ~$30 into a ~$50 pot OTR.

I don't really like going in between because then we'll have an awkward SPR on the turn.
 
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Tue Mar 18, 2014, 12:17 PM
(#6)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Quote:
Originally Posted by birdayy View Post
Your ranging is flawed because of his 3b%. Even if they are in his flatting range, I disagree that any of the above hands except AJ would flat a flop 3b.
Good point... my bad! I'm still going to get it in OTT after we bet and he XRs.

Let's try this again.

[SIZE=2.5]
Board: 9s 8d Td 3h
       Equity     Win     Tie
BU     32.95%  32.69%   0.26% { Kd7d }
SB     67.05%  66.78%   0.26% { A9s-A6s, Q9s, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, QJo, Q9o, J9o+, T9o }
[/SIZE]


I don't know if we can give them 67s I think they jam this in OTF...?
 

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