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25NL Zoom: river min-bet tell?

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25NL Zoom: river min-bet tell? - Thu Mar 20, 2014, 01:25 AM
(#1)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
This hand is from 25NL Zoom. My question is regarding the villain's min-bet on the river. Is this a reliable tell?

I only have 9 hands on the sb villain, but he has played 7 of them. His sub 100bb starting stack and that it was pretty late at night for him in Mexico all made me confident that this villain was weak. The btn was wa fairly passive fit or fold player.

KK is a nice starting hand but with two callers, one having position on me, and an A high flop, checking the flop seemed best. I wasn't going to get better hands to fold and thought it more likely to get weaker hands to call a bet on the turn if the flop checked around.

The second A on the turn seemed like a good card for me as it decreased the likelyhood that one of the villains had an ace. Since we kept ranges wide by checking the flop, calling the sb bet felt fine. He has enough 10x hands and bluffs in his range to make this profitable.

Now, on the river the villain makes a min-bet into a decent sized pot. I don't often raise the river with middle pair, but this betsize from a weak player just screamed blocking bet with a made, but weak hand. Rather than calling, I tried to win a bit more value from the villain.

Is this a tell you are familiar with and do you feel it is reliable enough to be raising against?



Thanks!
Roland GTX
 
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Thu Mar 20, 2014, 01:44 AM
(#2)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
I don't really like opening so large UTG. It's not 2008 anymore.

I think OTR it's fine to raise for value. He's shown himself to be a fish, and usually a minbet is either

a) a monster looking to induce (we can fold to a river 3b)
b) a blocker bet with a weak hand that wants a cheap showdown.

I think our sizing is a little small though. I'd prefer $2 which still gives us room to fold to a river 3b.
 
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Thu Mar 20, 2014, 04:16 AM
(#3)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
Thanks birdayy!

My utg opening size is configured to 3.5bbs. I've considered changing it to a standard 3bbs, but can't really make up my mind. I didn't play cash in 2008, so I have no idea what they were doing. I would probably have been 4xing it back then though following Harrington on Holdem!

At 25nl and lower I feel the larger utg betsize helps cut down on getting a string of callers which in turn makes playing big pairs and tptk hands much easier. My range is fairly strong (at least it is viewed that way), so I don't mind building the pot. What are your arguments for betting smaller?

At 50nl I do see different betsizing. Some are betting 2.5bb from every position. Some are 3x from ep, and some are 3.5x from utg like me. I am open for suggestions here, but dont want to change without a clear reason.

Raise size on river. Yeah, I thought about making it larger, but wasn't convinced it would get called. Plus, even though a half pot raise would be fine on its own, it felt big compared to the initial min-bet. Here again, I don't really know what is best. I didn't know much about the villain.

I agree with a min-bet indicating a polarized range. Here a weak hand seemed most likely I felt. I think a monster would often bet small but not min-bet, perhaps like 20% -30% of the pot or so.
 
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Thu Mar 20, 2014, 05:35 AM
(#4)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
I just prefer having deeper relative stacks to excerpt a greater post flop edge.

It also gives you a better price on a steal so you can open a bit more in earlier positions.
 
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Thu Mar 20, 2014, 08:57 AM
(#5)
MrFlopes's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 152
I like your opening size and with the fish on the sb i wouldn't mind opening 4x. I think it was flixx on one of is videos that said that some regs are coming back to open bigger UTG. So, opening sizes are trends and personal taste i guess. That being said, here is a link were a huge amout of data is analized and were they argue that 3x UTG his the most profitable size:

http://www.pokernews.com/strategy/us...izes-16646.htm


On topic: under 25NL that min is very weak and you should raise/fold for value. Like birdayy, i would raise a little bigger. You played the hand fine.

Last edited by MrFlopes; Thu Mar 20, 2014 at 08:59 AM..
 
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Fri Mar 21, 2014, 01:55 AM
(#6)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
Quote:
Is this a tell you are familiar with and do you feel it is reliable enough to be raising against?
This is an indicator, I would not go so far as to call it a tell. It can be a tell if you put it into a more specific context. Context, context, context. Here you have put it into context and thus I think your conclusion is well informed. Raising the river seems prudent and your size is reasonable. 1.75$ I think is almost certainly a better raise size but after that things become less clear because we have to have an edge on the additional money that goes into the pot and the more additional money that goes in the less likely we maintain an edge.

In terms of preflop size, I doubt it matters. I 3x UTG but here in a vacuum there are plenty of reasons to 3.5X. You have a tighter opening range and our raise size should correspond to the width of our range, at least, there are good arguments for why it should. Either way, the different between 3x and 3.5x is not going to add up when you are opening such a strong value range here.

Great play on every street, recognize that the turn call was the least +EV decision for us in this hand, with a player left to act behind, we are not in a great situation on the turn. But that resolves itself nicely on the river.
 

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