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50NL Zoom CR shove river 150BB

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50NL Zoom CR shove river 150BB - Fri Mar 21, 2014, 03:49 PM
(#1)
Sentras's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 122
Here is my hand on 50NL zoom:

Villain: Unknown only 4hands.



Flop:
So my thoughtprocess was to bet big in this threeway pot on the flop as many hands will float here + value from overpairs. and draws. Also goal was to try and get heads-up by betting this big.

Turn:
The King gives me a set. Which is nice but might scare off some hands. I assumed he is a weak player so I go for another big bet, charging his draws.
Concidering our stacksizes I think they'll often CR often to guarantee an all in on the river.
(I think my betsize should be a little bigger? like 9?)

River:
Is the blanc 8. I decided here to go for a near pot bet. As sets and 2 pair will look me up with any amount till pot.
However he CR shoves which is an ideal size tbh.

Here I went in the tank. I get nearly 3 to 1. I have to be good 26% of the time. (not concidering rake)

What can he be doing this with?
* 67 and A2. However I feel he would CR earlier very often.
* 33 44 55 same as above, although I think they'll more often raise.
* bluffs, which does make sense as they like doing this very often to put pressure. + I notice more bluffs occure the bigger the pot already is.

Runnnig equilab on that range and as bluff range 67o+s I have an easy call. But is my ranging correct here?
 
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Fri Mar 21, 2014, 04:06 PM
(#2)
kalahwang's Avatar
Since: Nov 2013
Posts: 135
looks like he hit a monster OTF. More likely the nut straight playing 67s.

a lower set might probably CR OTT w/ the K already there, to get value on your K which is on your range and protect from straight draws.

As played:
sick but I think I myself may not be able to fold his shove OTR.
 
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Fri Mar 21, 2014, 04:29 PM
(#3)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
IMO. I would bet larger OTF and same if not a bit smaller OTT. I also think your bet size is waaaay too big OTR.

As for the villain raising you earlier. I don't think they will raise looking at the board... No flush draws or anything. If they raise you're will be folding all your bluffs, maybe AK and you're only continuing with KK and maybe AA... Now with you betting OTF, OTT and really large OTR, they can narrow your range to AA, KK and AK. Maybe not even AK. You just look so strong, so now the villain can decide whether or not they are able to make you fold or call with your HUGE VALUE hand.

A) I don't think villain is X shoving OTR with a set. Sets are beating both AA and AK but losing to KK
B) Villain is shoving the nuts here or nada... (but what could nada be? what did they XC, XC with???)
C) Villain is shoving the nuts here.

FOLD.
 
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Sun Mar 23, 2014, 02:33 AM
(#4)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
I think the key to folding this on the river is your river bet size. I agree with some posters about the flop bet could have been bigger, but I am not totally sure. I think we can say that your flop bet should definitely not be any smaller than it was.

The turn I like your sizing. You have to strike a balance between the fold equity this card creates, never hitting your opponent, and building a pot.

The river you make a size such that any villain has to think twice about check-shoving this deep stack with bottom set. Actually, I feel like it is big enough that they would think twice with any set under yours. Now 88 is pretty unlikely in terms of pairs, since villain would fold the turn some amount of the time, maybe, 1/4 of the time let's say. Even if it is 1/4 to 1/5, then they also have to check-shove 88 as well. So between them not getting to the river with 88 and not being comfortable responding to your nuts or air bet with a check-shove, I feel like 88 is pretty discounted.

A similar line of reasoning could apply to lower sets. They are discounted by the % they would not slow play the flop and by the % they would not slow play the turn. Add in the fact that you bet a lot of chips in relation to the pot on the river and I don't think you will see undersets too often here. I would be shocked if villain ever had 2pair, its pretty clear they are bluffing with that hand.

Anyways, it would be worth their time to turn 66 into a bluff here, but I don't think we have reason to suspect them. Because the flop was rainbow and they called from the preflop position that they did, A2s and 67s are both in play, but 67o is not out of the question. They would surely raise those hands some amount of the time on earlier streets, as we had reasoned with sets, but because of the rainbow board, 67 is that much more comfortable slowplaying, where sets have to worry about an A, 2, 6, 7 (in the villain's mind).

I think its a fold. Basically you made a nuts or air size on the river that says you have a big hand and villain don't mind none. That should have you really worried. I like villain's play if they had 66 though
 
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Sun Mar 23, 2014, 07:05 AM
(#5)
Sentras's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 122
What kind of wizzard are you Gareth?
He had 66 :p But in future I'll concider folding more often
 

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