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2nlz flush draw facing a raise ott

2nlz flush draw facing a raise ott - Mon Mar 24, 2014, 02:21 AM
Praydk's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 504

turn AF 0.25
wtsd 35
199 hands
Looks like if I call the turn I'm committed but I don't have fold equity. So shoving isn't an option, we have too much equity to fold. Is calling and investing 38% of our stack then folding if we don't hit ok?
Mon Mar 24, 2014, 04:15 AM
rkleefstra's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 2,328
"we have too much equity to fold"

I disagree. To almost any hand that raises us OTT like 2p, set, str8 we only have about 25% chance to win. Even to an overpair we only have 30%.
I think this is an easy fold.

If we were deeper this could be different although I still think it's a fold as we might not get paid if we hit and we might not even have the nuts if we hit...
Mon Mar 24, 2014, 05:26 AM
NaturoSasuki's Avatar
Since: Dec 2013
Posts: 348
its ok to call if u think he stack u off with KQ if u hit ur 9 or spade....

but if he does dis with then u doomed
Mon Mar 24, 2014, 06:59 AM
Rogger1999's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 489
I would fold to his 0.74 raise on turn. By calling, you are committed to me (pot 1.81 against shortest 1.11 stack) and you cannot fold next street.
I would fold because to me you have only four outs (7%?) that can help u to win the pot. Chasing flush (20% chance?) is not a good option for me here.
Mon Mar 24, 2014, 12:47 PM
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
Hi pray,

Based on the immediate odds, we would need 30% equity to call, and we don't have it. His entire value ranging range sees us with less than this. Implied odds for the rest of his stack are tenuous at best... the only clean outs we have, the offsuit 9's, put 4 to a straight on the board which makes it harder to get paid. Calling is probably a small mistake here.

The better question is should we barrel the turn or not. I don't think so (although it's close). This guy is both passive and sticky post flop, so he calls the flop... he's got something. Sticky = not folding. So just check, and expect to get a free card fairly often to draw out on him. When he bets, given his AF is so low, I think we can rate him to be fairly strong, but now can call with some implied odds on our draw in all likelihood and don't get blown off our equity.

This is normally a nice barrel card for us.. a scare card to many of villains holdings that also gives us additional outs when called. The problem is we may be getting called too often here by a guy that likes to show down once he's got something.

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