Home / Community / Forum / Poker Education / Texas Hold'Em Cash Games /

10NL Zoom AA flopped set Fancy play?

Old
Default
10NL Zoom AA flopped set Fancy play? - Wed Mar 26, 2014, 04:17 PM
(#1)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
At first sight, there probably doesnt look to be a whole lot to analyse here but I want to check my line. It was probably horrible for all I know.

UTG raises, playing 26/24, but aggression factor of 0.4 post flop.

I'll be out of position post flop so when it folds round to me I raise it up and UTG calls. I get rewarded with top set and I think not betting looks suspicious, given I've show such strength pre-flop.

I'm figuring his range at JJ+ and AK+ but narrow this down a little more to QQ+ and AK when he calls.

On the turn, if he has QQ, I think he will fold a lot if I just continue to fire at the board. If he has AK I have no doubt that he will fire a bet, but is that a fair assumption, given his aggression factor? Albeit over a small sample.

When he does fire a bet, I think I can narrow his range to KK and AK, so I just call end elect to donk shove the river. The pot is already huge so I think he has to call wither either of those hands (And probably right to do so too).

How's my line here?

How is my ranging, not too narrow? I never discount random spew but he has shown fair strength on that board.

 
Old
Default
Wed Mar 26, 2014, 07:13 PM
(#2)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,353
Your line is OK, but I would check this flop and probably the turn too, expecting to rarely get stacks in unless villain has KK or AK, which is only 6 combos. Villain won't have a flush draw on this board very often, given that the Ac is the top card, so his continuance range to a bet is very small. I definitely like checking the turn to get action from QQ-TT (either now, or on the river) and random bluffs. Since QQ will probably check back the river after you check-call the turn, I think putting villain all in the river is probably fine.


Bracelet Winner
 
Old
Default
Wed Mar 26, 2014, 07:44 PM
(#3)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
I think this line is very good! Ok… if the villain has AK or KK it doesn't matter what you do here. FWIW… c-betting and then checking the turn is somewhat brilliant if this is an opponent that only flats 30bets with PAIRS as it looks like you have QQ or a strange flush draw that you decided to get fancy with pre flop… say JT of clubs or QJ of clubs.

However… on the flip side of things. You're giving the opponent a chance to check back his JT of clubs and QJ of clubs and get a free look at the river after we check this turn…. So having said that, I actually would most likely prefer a X/Shove OTT tbh.

Here's my line: R, B, XRAI
 
Old
Default
Thu Mar 27, 2014, 12:23 AM
(#4)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
I much prefer checking river. He can try and barrel us off with his JQcc for example and we can just x/shove.

Rest of the hand is fine.
 
Old
Default
And On the 3rd Flip Side of Things.... - Thu Mar 27, 2014, 04:44 AM
(#5)
Tonk Shuffle's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 618
I like all the comments above......reading what the opponent may have etc. I wish there was more comment on the bet sizing, and also...

....I am wondering - from his point of view - what is your perceived range? Would it be polarized (nuts or air) or merged (as in 'normal')?

1) You 3 bet from the big blind. This should look strong, unless - historically - he thinks you do this too wide. He elected not to 4bet.
2) You bet the flop, which is to be expected. After all, you did 3bet pre-flop. I like the 60% sizing, it looks standard and vague. However, this is a wet board - top two cards, connected, and a flush draw. There is some reason for him to assume that you have hit this flop in some (merging) fashion.
3) When you check the turn - I think it helps disguise the strength of your hand.
4) When you call his turn bet - he can still believe that you are as likely to be chasing a draw or holding a medium strength hand with some showdown value as you are to be holding the nuts.
5) From his point of view how relevant is your perceived range when you shove the river?

The key to this hand might be because of his turn bet. He is the effective stack. I wonder if he realized that he pretty much committed himself to calling off anything when made that bet. He has $5.46 left to call into a pot that becomes $14.73 irrespective and regardless of whether you check/raise the turn or jam the river. Could he call off with a bluff catcher?

I have been reading about polarized vs merged ranges, but kinda failed to show how it applies here. If I would have given you credit for having something then:

I would have jammed the turn against you with 99. With AK on board, it makes it less likely that you have AA or KK. (With only 10 to 1 odds 99 is foldable pre-flop, depending on if he thinks that he is set mining now.) I would have check/raised (then maybe folded to a jam) you with AK on the flop, and would have 4bet KK pre-flop. Losing each time, and electing to call it a cooler, rather than being out played.

It is arguable that you played this hand optimally, and your opponent was being fancy.

Last edited by Tonk Shuffle; Thu Mar 27, 2014 at 12:42 PM.. Reason: added stuff about folding 99 pre.
 
Old
Default
Thu Mar 27, 2014, 12:37 PM
(#6)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
Your line is OK, but I would check this flop and probably the turn too, expecting to rarely get stacks in unless villain has KK or AK, which is only 6 combos. Villain won't have a flush draw on this board very often, given that the Ac is the top card, so his continuance range to a bet is very small. I definitely like checking the turn to get action from QQ-TT (either now, or on the river) and random bluffs. Since QQ will probably check back the river after you check-call the turn, I think putting villain all in the river is probably fine.
Given that he was, and is, running at 0.4 AF I don't think I can really plan to x/c two streets. If he has missed I don't think we have a bluff candidate. And playing passively allows him to catch up if he has any sort of back door equity against me.

Personally, I liked the check on the turn because when he has stuck around, I think he has a fairly decent hand, when he bets out I am pretty sure this is a cooler situation. It's made me look as if I am concerned by his call and that I have a QQ-TT type hand or I am quite light. I don't think that would be the perception of most villains but maybe some do.

Most importantly though, I have a big hand, I want to play as big a pot as possible. If I bet flop and he folds, I probably wasn't getting much more action anyway.

I have an addiction to big pots

Quote:
Originally Posted by birdayy View Post
I much prefer checking river. He can try and barrel us off with his JQcc for example and we can just x/shove.

Rest of the hand is fine.
Do you think a villain with such a passive post flop stat line can be relied upon for that?

I know it's a limited sample but I'm not sure he bluffs the river.

Quote:
Originally Posted by dirt eh View Post
I think this line is very good! Ok… if the villain has AK or KK it doesn't matter what you do here. FWIW… c-betting and then checking the turn is somewhat brilliant if this is an opponent that only flats 30bets with PAIRS as it looks like you have QQ or a strange flush draw that you decided to get fancy with pre flop… say JT of clubs or QJ of clubs.

However… on the flip side of things. You're giving the opponent a chance to check back his JT of clubs and QJ of clubs and get a free look at the river after we check this turn…. So having said that, I actually would most likely prefer a X/Shove OTT tbh.

Here's my line: R, B, XRAI
It was a thin line between check raising turn and call/open shove river.

I think open shoving river can look like a missed draw if that's what villain perceived me to be on. I don't think he knows enough about me to know I rarely bluff this spot without some sort of read myself.

Last edited by bhoylegend; Thu Mar 27, 2014 at 12:49 PM..
 
Old
Default
Thu Mar 27, 2014, 05:31 PM
(#7)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tonk Shuffle View Post
1) You 3 bet from the big blind. This should look strong, unless - historically - he thinks you do this too wide. He elected not to 4bet.

2) You bet the flop, which is to be expected. After all, you did 3bet pre-flop. I like the 60% sizing, it looks standard and vague. However, this is a wet board - top two cards, connected, and a flush draw. There is some reason for him to assume that you have hit this flop in some (merging) fashion.

3) When you check the turn - I think it helps disguise the strength of your hand.

4) When you call his turn bet - he can still believe that you are as likely to be chasing a draw or holding a medium strength hand with some showdown value as you are to be holding the nuts.

5) From his point of view how relevant is your perceived range when you shove the river?
I wanted to get home before I addressed your post, as it was quite lengthy, and pretty impressive in its thought and detail

1) He shouldn't really have any reason I think to do this too wide, if anything, I do it too narrow. I don't know exactly what stats he holds on me but I would imagine that I appear like a standard TAG who doesnt get carried away with 3bets pre. My 3bet range to most players looking at the stats will look probably like a value range, which can be largely true, but I do pick spots to go lighter and if he has been dealt into hands where I have done this, I guess he could think I do it light.

2) This is exactly why I felt betting the flop was good, I'm meant to cbet this flop, I have repped a big hand pre-flop. Even if I have JJ/QQ he could just think I am sticking out the obligatory cbet. The size was pretty standard, I wasnt overly concerned about draws, I thought he would be pocket pair and AK/AQ heavy and the A of clubs was on the board so unless he had the Kc for some backdoor flush outs there wasnt much concern.

3) Agreed, when I check the turn it is to imitate concern that I have been called on an AKx board, the cbet was just me doing what I had to do and I was now possibly giving up.

4) I think I can be doing this with a fair number of hands in his eyes, we are virtually unknown to me, he shouldnt be able to get an absolute read on what I would do this with.

5) I think to an unknown this looks like nuts or air, as an unknown he maybe should give me credit for having it, but I think we both look strong on the river.
 
Old
Default
Thu Mar 27, 2014, 09:16 PM
(#8)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,353
Quote:
Originally Posted by birdayy View Post
I much prefer checking river. He can try and barrel us off with his JQcc for example and we can just x/shove.
I'd agree with this if villain was deeper, but he has less than a PSB on the river, so there's little scope for a check-raise, as villain will usually be all in if he bets, unless he goes for $2 into $9 or something weird like that.


Bracelet Winner
 
Old
Default
Thu Mar 27, 2014, 09:25 PM
(#9)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,353
Quote:
Originally Posted by bhoylegend View Post
Most importantly though, I have a big hand, I want to play as big a pot as possible. If I bet flop and he folds, I probably wasn't getting much more action anyway.
Folding out hands like QQ/JJ on the flop is a disaster in the long run in my opinion. You could be losing 20bb of value by folding them out on the flop.
Put yourself in villain's shoes. If you flatted the 3-bet with QQ/JJ and this flop came down, you're folding to a c-bet aren't you?
I'm not a fan of slowplaying in general, but I think your range crushes this board so hard that you'll lose your customer too often when you come out firing. If you want to get one or two streets from underpairs, you should check. There just aren't enough combos in villain's range that are paying off all three streets. (And if he has KK or AK, you'll get it all in on river anyway).


Bracelet Winner
 
Old
Default
Fri Mar 28, 2014, 01:24 AM
(#10)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
Folding out hands like QQ/JJ on the flop is a disaster in the long run in my opinion. You could be losing 20bb of value by folding them out on the flop.
Put yourself in villain's shoes. If you flatted the 3-bet with QQ/JJ and this flop came down, you're folding to a c-bet aren't you?
I'm not a fan of slowplaying in general, but I think your range crushes this board so hard that you'll lose your customer too often when you come out firing. If you want to get one or two streets from underpairs, you should check. There just aren't enough combos in villain's range that are paying off all three streets. (And if he has KK or AK, you'll get it all in on river anyway).
Okay, so if I am targeting value from hands like JJ/QQ, what is he thinking I have here to enable him to give me that value?

We obviously don't know whether he was using a HUD or not but assuming he does then he probably doesn't think I am 3betting an UTG open with random hands.
 
Old
Default
Fri Mar 28, 2014, 02:10 AM
(#11)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
I think the only saving grace in this hand is CHECKING THE TURN! Of course KK and AK will get it in no matter what OTF, OTT, and maybe they fold OTR….. but IF BY THE OFF CHANCE villain gets sticky with QQ… and yes this is a slim chance. By checking the turn we are saying. "I'm trying to rep AK but I guess that didn't work". Once again lets go into the villains thought process here.

"If he 3bet me with AA, KK, AK.. would he really cbet on a AK board? THAT'S SILLY!!!! I have QQ this guy has nothing."

So… having said that… I think the CHECK OTT is brilliant after we get called. Even if the villain has KK, it's probably the best thing in the world to CHECK OTT!

I LOVE HOW THIS WAS PLAYED…. Yes we can check the flop but seriously? SERIOUSLY? that's pretty obvious that we have a monster once we check this board.

Last edited by dirt eh; Fri Mar 28, 2014 at 02:12 AM..
 
Old
Default
Fri Mar 28, 2014, 03:51 AM
(#12)
PSO-xflixx's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,119
(Live Trainer)
Your line may look like you can pretty much never be bluffing to an observing opponent. Nonetheless I'm sure you can take this for value at the micros all the time as people won't be seeing it that way.

In general if I start checking my range somewhere I feel like it's best to continue to do so to have your opponent make the bigger mistakes by ranging you incorrectly and bluffing/valuebetting too thinly. The alternative would be to just keep betting yourself.


Live Trainer



 

Getting PokerStars is easy: download and install the PokerStars game software, create your free player account, and validate your email address. Clicking on the download poker button will lead to the installation of compatible poker software on your PC of 51.7 MB, which will enable you to register and play poker on the PokerStars platform. To uninstall PokerStars use the Windows uninstaller: click Start > Control Panel and then select Add or Remove programs > Select PokerStars and click Uninstall or Remove.

Copyright (c) PokerSchoolOnline.com. All rights reserved, Rational Group, Douglas Bay Complex, King Edward Road, Onchan, Isle of Man, IM3 1DZ. You can email us on support@pokerschoolonline.com