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10NL ZOOM, JJ flop desicion

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10NL ZOOM, JJ flop desicion - Thu Mar 27, 2014, 05:37 PM
(#1)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Flop decision... is this going to be a spot where shoving is standard?
I was actually debating on folding preflop also as we're not closing the action and we aren't quite getting 15x to hit a set.

Villain(267):18/14/4.8
TOT 3 BET: 5.8
Squeeze: 5 on 22 samples
CBET: 75 on 12 samples
HM autorate: TAG


Last edited by dirt eh; Thu Mar 27, 2014 at 05:46 PM..
 
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Thu Mar 27, 2014, 05:58 PM
(#2)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
I think flatting is bad if you don't intend to continue on any perceived safe card, he's setting it up for stacks though on the turn, as he is scared of the drawy board (I presume). So I think its either shove or fold.

I've folded here before just because I was so unsure of my hand against his perceived range.

Don't think it was horrible but I think we are behind when called. It's only if we include AK in his premium hand range here that we are an equity favourite. He almost certainly folds that and calls with the rest thinking we have the kind of hand we have.
 
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Thu Mar 27, 2014, 06:06 PM
(#3)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Yeah... I'm not sure what too do here! He shouldn't be folding QQ+ if he gives us 88, 99, TT, JJ, and i'm not sure if we can add AK to his range here... BIG SQUEEZE AND OVERBET THE POT.
 
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Fri Mar 28, 2014, 10:47 AM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,487
(Head Trainer)
Hey guys,

I think it would be totally fine folding preflop here tbh... I can't imagine we're making money on this call. The villain is nitty to begin with for 6-max, and here he's making an oversized 3b in a position where he should have his strongest of ranges... vs. an UTG open and UTG+1 call, 160+bb deep, out of position for the rest of the and... wen he had the option to simply see the flop for 2 more bb. I doubt a guy with this profile is 3-beting AK 100% of the time here, so his range is probably something like AKs/QQ+. Sounds tight, but I don't see any good reason to assume otherwise. One thing you should consider in spots like this which you didn't, is info on V5... if V5 is a big fish for instance, and V3 knows this, that would be a good reason he might widen the 3B range some, to squeeze you out and iso the fish.

Post flop is just a fold to the overbet. I think putting AK in his range at this point is very optimistic, every indicator is that he's got QQ+. We are 4-1 to improve on the turn and only getting 2-1 on our call, and our implied odds are tainted in that all cards that improve us make the board very scary too.


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Fri Mar 28, 2014, 09:04 PM
(#5)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,324
I would call pre, hoping to go set-mining 3-ways, but I don't mind folding either. Flop is a clear fold. You're not beating anything.


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