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2NL 6m Call shove?

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2NL 6m Call shove? - Thu Mar 27, 2014, 07:36 PM
(#1)
rkleefstra's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 2,328


villain: vpip36/pfr36/3bet12.5 32hands AF% 45
He had been very active

pre: Should I 3bet with a hand like this against a villain like that. I think QJs is strong enough to call on the BTN.


On flop, I think my play so far is not unusual/correct. I have huge draws and it's a coinflip against his best hands, but way ahead of his average range, isn't it.
Is it correct to call the shove, or is this an easy fold ?
 
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Thu Mar 27, 2014, 07:38 PM
(#2)
rkleefstra's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 2,328
!!SPOILER!! hand in boom
http://www.boomplayer.com/nl/poker-h...257_9DC7FB03DA
 
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Thu Mar 27, 2014, 08:34 PM
(#3)
FireMedic815's Avatar
Since: May 2012
Posts: 2,079
yeah this is fine, the only hand you are very far behind is if he holds exactly AT of hearts, you are like 36% or so vs that hand.

Its a small sample size but QJ suited is definately good enough to call and see a flop and your post flop play is pretty standard.

I think there is more value in calling in pos. than to 3 bet an early/mp open with QJs
 
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Thu Mar 27, 2014, 09:03 PM
(#4)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,316
If villain's stack off range is sets, 2 pairs and the monster combo of pair/NFD (KK,TT,66,KTs,,KTo) you have 44% equity.
I've not done the pot odds math, so I'll leave that as an exercise for you.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Thu Mar 27, 2014, 09:29 PM
(#5)
FireMedic815's Avatar
Since: May 2012
Posts: 2,079
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
If villain's stack off range is sets, 2 pairs and the monster combo of pair/NFD (KK,TT,66,KTs,,KTo) you have 44% equity.
I've not done the pot odds math, so I'll leave that as an exercise for you.
I was just talking about the one hand he had the least equity against being AT of hearts and I just threw out a guess I ran AT hearts vs QJ of hearts and the QJ is 39.92 vs AT.

I didn't run the range of hands he might be up against, I think its a pretty easy get it in 2.70 to win 6.40

Last edited by FireMedic815; Thu Mar 27, 2014 at 09:42 PM..
 
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Fri Mar 28, 2014, 04:22 AM
(#6)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
Preflop I would not consider 3betting here. You have position and are facing an ep raise which will be a tigher opening range even from a loose aggressive player. We can't 3bet for value here but it is a great spot to flat as you did. Moreover, we want to keep his range wide and put our position to use. If we get a good flop we can expect him to cbet quite often winning us more profit.

You get a great flop. We can follow two lines here. Either call the flop cbet which keeps the pot under control and keeps the villain's range wide. This is safe and keeps your options open. Or, we can raise as you did. If we raise, I think we need to be prepared to play for a big pot. The villain appears quite aggressive so I don't expect to have much fold equity when raising in this spot.

Against this player at 2NL, I would expect a somewhat wider jamming range than what Arty assigned him. I would also include Kx hands AK, KQ, KJ for tp. He may also have AA and Ax of hearts. Against this range, calling the all in will be break even. This leads me to conclude that it is better to flat on the flop and reevaluate on the turn. We can use position to control the pot and keep the villain's range wide until we have improved.

Roland GTX
 
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Fri Mar 28, 2014, 04:59 AM
(#7)
rkleefstra's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 2,328
Thanks all ! Good to see lots of opinions and analyses

The moment that flop came, my plan was to get it in no matter what bcause I liked my odds. That's a very bad way to play, I know, but my instincts said I couldn't be much behind or even be ahead.

If I called the flop and re-evaluate the turn, I'm not sure I would believed he had a K so maybe stacks would have go in any way. we'll never know.


At least I don't regret my play as I often do in big pots.
 
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Fri Mar 28, 2014, 06:00 AM
(#8)
donkkilla76's Avatar
Since: Mar 2014
Posts: 107
to see the flop there was nothing wrong with your call to reraise on the flop betting your draw and calling his allin just because you feel the odds are good is just bad play tbh and you got what you deserved
 
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Fri Mar 28, 2014, 06:29 AM
(#9)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
Quote:
Originally Posted by donkkilla76 View Post
to see the flop there was nothing wrong with your call to reraise on the flop betting your draw and calling his allin just because you feel the odds are good is just bad play tbh and you got what you deserved
This comment isn't very helpful donkkilla. Moreover, it is not a clear cut fold as you seem to believe. Treate your fellow PSO members with some respect in the future. We are here to learn not deride one another.

Roland GTX
 
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Fri Mar 28, 2014, 07:10 AM
(#10)
donkkilla76's Avatar
Since: Mar 2014
Posts: 107
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roland GTX View Post
This comment isn't very helpful donkkilla. Moreover, it is not a clear cut fold as you seem to believe. Treate your fellow PSO members with some respect in the future. We are here to learn not deride one another.

Roland GTX
yes you are right roland my comments probably do seem a bit harsh but after having people calling allin on draws even when they have only got the river card left and them hitting 8 - 10 times has left me a bit bitter, but as for clear cut i dont think it could be any clearer they have top pair at a bare min and all you are doing is chasing a draw, im not saying you should never chase but there should always be a point where someone can bet enough to call you off

Last edited by donkkilla76; Fri Mar 28, 2014 at 07:30 AM..
 
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Fri Mar 28, 2014, 07:33 AM
(#11)
rkleefstra's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 2,328
Quote:
Originally Posted by donkkilla76 View Post
yes you are right roland my comments probably do seem a bit harsh but after having people calling allin on draws even when they have only got the river card left and them hitting 8 - 10 times has left me a bit bitter

I know what you mean donkkilla, but this was certainly no stupid gamble-move like getting all-in on a gutshot. I had 14 outs to (semi-) nuthands.
I had 51.5% at the moment it went in, so slight favorite. Ofc I didn't know he had AK but statically I made the right move in hindside. So the only thing I deserve is to win the hand

I have 54% to QQ, 62%-72% to JJ down to 22 (excl 10-10, 6-6)
I have about 52% to broadways like KQ, KJ, 65% to A10off
I'm slightly, 48.5%, behind against AA (no heart)
and slightly behind K10 (48%) and coinflip against other 2pair.

the only hands that have me really beat are:
A (45%), Sets (KK, TT, 66) 40% and (35%). That are only a few combination, and most of them will try to make valuebets and don't shove to scare everyboy out that has a worse hand.

So I know you shouted out of frustration, believe me I've been there, but this is deffo no such hand !


GL at the tables and I hope you get lots of gamblers that shove gutshots to you because you will win in the long run.

Last edited by rkleefstra; Fri Mar 28, 2014 at 07:46 AM..
 
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Fri Mar 28, 2014, 08:38 AM
(#12)
donkkilla76's Avatar
Since: Mar 2014
Posts: 107
i get what you are saying stats wise but if you included him having ak and if i was in this hand thats what my gut would be telling me your odds are too close, which if your happy to throw your money at a coin flip thats fine, but me personally i wouldve folded. As for beating the gutshot draws not happening as of yet lol, but hopefully soon good play will beat luck
 
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Fri Mar 28, 2014, 09:02 AM
(#13)
taxi128's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 245
we have 72 pros. on here and if it was possible to ask each one if he would call or fold this hand on the flop to an all in 72 would say instant call.


Triple Bracelet Winner
 
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Fri Mar 28, 2014, 10:03 AM
(#14)
rkleefstra's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 2,328
Quote:
Originally Posted by donkkilla76 View Post
i get what you are saying stats wise but if you included him having ak and if i was in this hand thats what my gut would be telling me your odds are too close, which if your happy to throw your money at a coin flip thats fine, but me personally i wouldve folded.

You might want to look at his side of the story. What the hell is he thinking shoving 150BB with just TPTK !?
If I have a set which is one of the hands that will certainly call he is way way down. Any flushdraw get 30-35%, and he is flipping at best to all hands that call.

So basically, his play is way more questionally than mine.
 
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Fri Mar 28, 2014, 12:35 PM
(#15)
Guano23's Avatar
Since: Jun 2013
Posts: 13
Personally with OESD and 2nd Nut flush draw I am getting my chips in as fast a possible OTF.
 
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Fri Mar 28, 2014, 03:15 PM
(#16)
FireMedic815's Avatar
Since: May 2012
Posts: 2,079
Quote:
Originally Posted by rkleefstra View Post
Thanks all ! Good to see lots of opinions and analyses

The moment that flop came, my plan was to get it in no matter what bcause I liked my odds. That's a very bad way to play, I know, but my instincts said I couldn't be much behind or even be ahead.

If I called the flop and re-evaluate the turn, I'm not sure I would believed he had a K so maybe stacks would have go in any way. we'll never know.


At least I don't regret my play as I often do in big pots.

do you use an equity calculator rk? Equillab has a decent one and its free. you can review your hands and put in what you think your opponents range is and see how much equity your hand has vs their range.

I probably should have put a range of hands in that I thought your opponent is likely to have and explained my reasons for getting it in better, I just thought it was an easy decision to get it in because when you put all his top pair type hands in along with his stronger hands like sets, your equity vs odds is favorable to get it in, in my opinion.

I am not an expert with equity calculators but if you are new I will help you as much as I can with them. You can find tutorials on you tube. I am not sure if they have a class in the archives on them or not.

opps I didn't see the post where you put in the odds I guess you are familiar with equity calculators

Last edited by FireMedic815; Fri Mar 28, 2014 at 03:21 PM.. Reason: added a sentece
 
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Fri Mar 28, 2014, 04:40 PM
(#17)
rkleefstra's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 2,328
Hi FireMedic
Yeah I use equilab but not during play. maybe I should in hands like this

Against this range : TT+,ATs,KQs,KTs,T6s,ATo,KQo,KTo I have 53% equity.
 
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Fri Mar 28, 2014, 08:33 PM
(#18)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,316
FWIW, I did the pot odds calculation shortly after posting yesterday. If I remember correctly, calling off requires 41% equity to be break even. Since you have 44% equity even against the top of villain's range, it's a profitable stack off.
If you'd been deeper or your first bet had been smaller, the decision would be much closer and might become a fold, since you wouldn't quite have the right equity to call a shove.

Pro-tip: Don't always assume you can call off because "I have a monster draw". Look at the odds the pot is offering you, and also bear in mind that some villains will only stack off sets, which means your equity with a draw is not as high as you'd like.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Sat Mar 29, 2014, 03:18 AM
(#19)
NaturoSasuki's Avatar
Since: Dec 2013
Posts: 348
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
FWIW, I did the pot odds calculation shortly after posting yesterday. If I remember correctly, calling off requires 41% equity to be break even. Since you have 44% equity even against the top of villain's range, it's a profitable stack off.
If you'd been deeper or your first bet had been smaller, the decision would be much closer and might become a fold, since you wouldn't quite have the right equity to call a shove.

Pro-tip: Don't always assume you can call off because "I have a monster draw". Look at the odds the pot is offering you, and also bear in mind that some villains will only stack off sets, which means your equity with a draw is not as high as you'd like.
with straightflush draw vs. set its good almost all outs are still good... only 1-2 outs thats pair the board are discounted
 
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Sat Mar 29, 2014, 04:30 AM
(#20)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
FWIW, I did the pot odds calculation shortly after posting yesterday. If I remember correctly, calling off requires 41% equity to be break even. Since you have 44% equity even against the top of villain's range, it's a profitable stack off.
If you'd been deeper or your first bet had been smaller, the decision would be much closer and might become a fold, since you wouldn't quite have the right equity to call a shove.

Pro-tip: Don't always assume you can call off because "I have a monster draw". Look at the odds the pot is offering you, and also bear in mind that some villains will only stack off sets, which means your equity with a draw is not as high as you'd like.
I did the same before I posted Arty. With my range they were identical - break even.

I agree that we cant blindly stack off with an oesfd. Few hands are black and white. We need to think about the particular spot and villain.
 

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