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How bad can you run?

How bad can you run? - Thu Mar 27, 2014, 10:09 PM
CrazYJohnnie's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 641
I am here to whine, i admit that, but also to ask have you had these bad runs and for how long they can go?

Today was the best session ever. 1619 hands, ~5 buy-ins below EV, villains catching 2 outers three times and runner flush vs set etc.
HEM2 shows Net Won(at 2NL) -7.06$, but $USD EV +4,80. Avg all-in equity 71%, Pre-flop 70,4, Flop 68,3, Avg Turn all-in equity 87,5.

I do understand that if i were to play million hands vs these shove monkeys at 2NL, i could buy holiday trip to New Zealand if i run based on these numbers, because "long term matters yadda yadda yadda" but right now i am going straight to Bustoville.

I am 15 BI below EV for last 21k hands, but im sure this downswing started earlier, i had to reinstall PC so HEM data is only for March.
How bad can you run?
Thu Mar 27, 2014, 10:22 PM
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,862
Two years ago... I had a run like that last over 4 months... and know plenty of people that have had them last longer. It's a part of the game (there's a reason it's called a grind).

John (JWK24)


6 Time Bracelet Winner

Favourite Tweet This Month - Fri Mar 28, 2014, 12:45 AM
Tonk Shuffle's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 618
"What's the best way to make a quick $1.4m back? Asking for a friend."

-Phil Galfond March 18th

Are you worried that you may never be a winning player? Or was winning, but can't win now? Phil Galfond jokes about the big losses (see quote above), but says the slow bleeds are much more demoralizing. Here is a starting catalogue of PSO videos and articles on dealing with run-bad and tilt.




Good luck, and better decisions.
Fri Mar 28, 2014, 01:51 AM
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
Variance has no memory so these can go on a while, it doesn't care if you just lost to a 1 or 2 outer, and can happily serve it up again and again.

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