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NL5 6max Zoom - SB QQ cold 4Bet vs BU small 3Bet

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NL5 6max Zoom - SB QQ cold 4Bet vs BU small 3Bet - Sun Mar 30, 2014, 01:53 PM
(#1)
ImStylo's Avatar
Since: Oct 2013
Posts: 35
Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $5.29 (105.8 bb)
Hero (SB): $5.07 (101.4 bb)
BB: $2.48 (49.6 bb)
UTG: $5.28 (105.6 bb)
MP: $5.56 (111.2 bb)
CO: $10.93 (218.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q Q
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.15, CO folds, BTN raises to $0.34, Hero raises to $1.10, BB raises to $2.48 and is all-in, MP folds, BTN calls $2.14, Hero?

This hand is from NL5 6max Zoom.

MP stats
VPIP:25
PFR:25
HANDS:4

BU stats
VPIP: 14
PFR: 12
AGG: 1.6
HANDS: 192
3BET: 8.5(71)
3BET vs MP: 9.5(21)
3BET from BU: 5.6(18)
No fold to 4Bet stats

BB stats
VPIP: 27
PFR: 18
AGG: 34.0
HANDS: 107
3BET: 4.8(42)
No 4bet, 5bet stats

So I decided to cold 4bet vs BU small 3bet and BB shoved all in ~50bb, BU called and I did not know what to do in this spot. How would you play here? Is it a mistake to cold 4bet vs BU small 3bet?
 
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Sun Mar 30, 2014, 07:34 PM
(#2)
FireMedic815's Avatar
Since: May 2012
Posts: 2,080
The button seems pretty tight and depending on the player a min 3 bet can be pretty strong. ( I have seen them do it weak and strong ) I would say this player is doing it pretty strong and when he just flat calls the half stack 5 bet shove I think we are looking at the very top of his range. I would say you are looking at KK+ I don't know if he calls here with even JJ or AK, I mean if I had JJ or AK and it was 5 bet I am not liking my hand very much. I think we can fold our QQ.
 
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Mon Mar 31, 2014, 01:32 AM
(#3)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
never folding
 
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Mon Mar 31, 2014, 06:00 AM
(#4)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
Hand is too strong to fold in my opinion, BTN is tight but can still be doing this with worse AK/JJ, and its worth noting that on the small sample he is quite active 3bet wise. It is a small sample though.

Calling is horrible, so I reshove, I expect to be ahead of the shortstacks range often enough and if BTN is ahead then its a bit of a cooler.
 
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Mon Mar 31, 2014, 06:24 AM
(#5)
braveslice's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 568
I don’t understand how you can ever be good here. But this happens quite regularly, and I would shove, but the most losing hand I have is QQ. So my try:

BTN: {AK,KK+}
BB: {77+,AJ+}

range odds main pot: 34%
range odds side pot: 40%

Main pot after shove: 7.59 EV x0.34 = 2.58
Side pot after shove: 5.18 EV x0,40 = 2.07

EV shoving: -0.66*1.38+0.34*6.21-0.6*2.59+0.4*2.59 =0.68
EV folding: -1.1
-> So it’s a call

Btw, So EV shoving can be negative, as long as it's over -1.1? But somehow -5.07+(2.58+2.07)+1.1=0.68



Edit: fk these are labourous and mistake prone

Edit2: this calculation can not be right, so recalculating -> cant find big mistake

Edit 3: Finally I found the mistake A BIG one =) so the calculations were very wrong. I calculated my money to the pot to win. -> removed lenghty post about how ridigilous results 'my way' of calculating gave

Last edited by braveslice; Mon Mar 31, 2014 at 08:44 AM..
 
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Mon Mar 31, 2014, 07:54 AM
(#6)
FireMedic815's Avatar
Since: May 2012
Posts: 2,080
I really didn't run any equity calculations here, I am just trying to think what the button does in this spot. I think he would shove with all his AK's and TT-JJ type hands to get hu vs the weaker player.

Now that the other player is all in and that is the most he can win I think he flats KK+ to try and keep us in the pot. That is my thinking in the hand and why I believe this is a fold, If he doesn't have KK+ here I would note him and get him next time.
 
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Mon Mar 31, 2014, 08:03 AM
(#7)
braveslice's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 568
That would be sensible thing to do surely. I might be wrong, but having two AK combos in his range makes it about even with folding, so 12 combos pairs -> about every fift time he has to have AK to shove.

Last edited by braveslice; Mon Mar 31, 2014 at 08:35 AM..
 
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Mon Mar 31, 2014, 08:30 AM
(#8)
FireMedic815's Avatar
Since: May 2012
Posts: 2,080
Quote:
Originally Posted by braveslice View Post
That would be sensible thing to do surely.
I am just going by my read, I could be wrong again. if you put AK and JJ in his flatting range here then sure go ahead and go with it. I just have him on a narrower range here because we 4 bet and we are still left to act. I don't think he put in half his stack to fold to a 6 bet shove, so why not just shove with AK and JJ.
 
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Mon Mar 31, 2014, 08:37 AM
(#9)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Quote:
Originally Posted by braveslice View Post
I don’t understand how you can ever be good here. But this happens quite regularly, and I would shove, but the most losing hand I have is QQ. So my try:

BTN: {AK,KK+}
BB: {77+,AJ+}

range odds main pot: 34%
range odds side pot: 40%

Main pot after shove: 7.59 EV x0.34 = 2.58
Side pot after shove: 5.18 EV x0,40 = 2.07

EV shoving: -0.66*2.48+0.34*7.59-0.6*2.59+0.4*5.18 =1.46
EV folding: -1.1
-> So it’s a call

Btw, So EV shoving can be negative, as long as it's over -1.1?
I mean if we give BU: {AKs,KK+}, we get EV shove = -0.30, but because this is better than -1.1 it's still right to shove? hmmm, surely.

This is ridigilous, EV calculations are saying that is correct to call shove heads up almost every time, you only need 33,3% equity.

Example 10NL, 100bb:
BU: {KK+,AK+} -> shoves
BB: {22} -> calls
EV about: -0.626*10+0.374*20 = 1.22 -> correct call
in this light QQ is auto call every time as are practically JJ and TT as who would shove QQ or JJ.

It get's more interesting in multivay shoves, 10NL, 100bb:
BU: {KK+,AK+} -> shoves
SB: {KK+,AK+} -> shoves
BB: {3h2h} -> calls

EV about: 0.254*30-0.746*10 = 0.16 -> correct call (as is 3h5h)


Edit: fk these are labourous and mistake prone

Edit2: this calculation can not be right, so recalculating -> cant find big mistake

Edit 3: Finally I found the mistake A BIG one =) so the calculations are very wrong. I calculated my money to the pot to win.
Whats BB has 32s all about?

If BU shoved we would need 33% equity about so if they have KK+

Its an easy fold no need for complex maths calculations if BU has JJ+ AK and BB has JJ+ AK we have 33% equity about vs that range.

Seen as the BU flatted though were wondering if we should shove or fold, personally i would flat as the BU is never folding so i can get away and save around 50bb on a A or K high flop. The question then is what about on a low flop, well then we just better hope they have JJ/ AK in there range otherwise we lose this pot every time except when we flop a set.

Its a shame you didn't have a bigger hand sample on the BU as his 9% 3bet is meaningless, i find it hard to believe he even has JJ and i see players at 5nl flatting AK on BU 24/7 Vs UTG and MP.
 
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Mon Mar 31, 2014, 08:44 AM
(#10)
braveslice's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 568
ha haa mike, too slow
 
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Mon Mar 31, 2014, 09:10 AM
(#11)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
Quote:
Originally Posted by mike2198 View Post
Seen as the BU flatted though were wondering if we should shove or fold, personally i would flat as the BU is never folding so i can get away and save around 50bb on a A or K high flop. The question then is what about on a low flop, well then we just better hope they have JJ/ AK in there range otherwise we lose this pot every time except when we flop a set.
So you are willing to put half of your stack in pre-flop and then fold any perceived scary flop? I think if you are not prepared to commit then it is a fold.

To me that just reads that you are prepared to be bluffed off the best hand, when you have it (And in a big pot too), and commit with the worst hand when you have it and the flop looks innocent enough that we can feel good about stacking off.

What are we doing on a QJT flop?

What about a JT9 flop?

Are we still committing on those?

I actually think the BTN can be fairly wide (Not ridiculously wide) here based on the fact that BB is quite active too. This appears to be his only 5bet but we have a tiny sample on him and short stacks should be getting it in with a lighter range.

I'm probably wrong, it would be no surprise to me if I am, but I think we have to have extremely solid reads here to lay down QQ with positional and player dynamics.

That said, I'm pretty sure in game I have folded this spot, and at 2/5NL have been left fuming that I was pushed out of the hand by ridiculous cards. Being results oriented, it has been kind of funny to CTRL+FOLD and watch the idiotic hands that were in there would have sucked out on me

Last edited by bhoylegend; Mon Mar 31, 2014 at 09:17 AM..
 
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Mon Mar 31, 2014, 09:57 AM
(#12)
FireMedic815's Avatar
Since: May 2012
Posts: 2,080
[QUOTE=bhoylegend;503649]So you are willing to put half of your stack in pre-flop and then fold any perceived scary flop? I think if you are not prepared to commit then it is a fold.

I'm probably wrong, it would be no surprise to me if I am, but I think we have to have extremely solid reads here to lay down QQ with positional and player dynamics.]

what a great hand for discussion! I could be wrong too, but I am going with my " white magic " and folding! lol

Last edited by FireMedic815; Mon Mar 31, 2014 at 12:38 PM.. Reason: added a ] so you can see when the quote ends
 
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Mon Mar 31, 2014, 10:57 AM
(#13)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Quote:
Originally Posted by bhoylegend View Post
So you are willing to put half of your stack in pre-flop and then fold any perceived scary flop? I think if you are not prepared to commit then it is a fold.

To me that just reads that you are prepared to be bluffed off the best hand, when you have it (And in a big pot too), and commit with the worst hand when you have it and the flop looks innocent enough that we can feel good about stacking off.

What are we doing on a QJT flop?

What about a JT9 flop?

Are we still committing on those?

I actually think the BTN can be fairly wide (Not ridiculously wide) here based on the fact that BB is quite active too. This appears to be his only 5bet but we have a tiny sample on him and short stacks should be getting it in with a lighter range.

I'm probably wrong, it would be no surprise to me if I am, but I think we have to have extremely solid reads here to lay down QQ with positional and player dynamics.

That said, I'm pretty sure in game I have folded this spot, and at 2/5NL have been left fuming that I was pushed out of the hand by ridiculous cards. Being results oriented, it has been kind of funny to CTRL+FOLD and watch the idiotic hands that were in there would have sucked out on me
Im really not worried about being bluffed at all this villain is basically unknown to me in a 3bet pot if and when he starts 3betting MP wider i can get my QQ pre, If he wants to start bluffing me it wont take long for me to work that out and then i will adjust to him getting out of line and all the small pots i lose will be more than made up for when i start raking in those big pots from him.

I don't know why he would be wide here he is a 14/12 nit, so he has obviously read a book or something,so he should also know that 3betting JJ vs an MP open is like turning JJ into a bluff, unless MP was a fish what is MP going to call with OOP that JJ beats? Other than the odd set miner that calls 6x more to fold the missed flop.

Then to top it off he flats the shorties shove after our 4bet as well,maybe he wont lay down JJ but when that flop come Axx Kxx i bet he checks behind all the way to showdown.

If the flop was Jx i would check it down and i would have to call the pot bet if he snap jams in his whole range OF AK JJ+ on the flop when checked to. As we would be good more than enough to call that bet size, i dont know how that works with the BB in the pot though.

Thats just how i would play it i dont know if im correct so dont think im acting like i know what im on about i posted to compare my line to one of the hand analyzers line.
 
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Mon Mar 31, 2014, 11:01 AM
(#14)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Quote:
Originally Posted by bhoylegend View Post
What are we doing on a QJT flop?

Obviously stacking off he has JJ KK AA in his range and were getting priced in vs AK on the flop anyway with the stack sizes.
 
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Mon Mar 31, 2014, 12:10 PM
(#15)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
This is a great spot for the BTN to flat with AA imo. They don’t have to settle for the 2.48$ and can play us for the rest of our stack – when they call they leave 2.81$ behind so they can’t go wrong post flop pretty much. But what’s up with their 3bet sizing?! That’s almost like a min raise except they add 80% of an extra bb – I’m really suspicious here! I’m not sure a 14/12 would 3bet small with medium PPs and random Ax hands. Again, I’m REALLY suspicious! I might as well just fold this since I’m not happy with any line I take.

The best part of folding is that we still get to see Villain's hand. So our 1.1$ is a sweet investment for a note here that we can use for future reference

I’m leaving this one open

Last edited by geoVARTA; Mon Mar 31, 2014 at 12:19 PM..
 
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Mon Mar 31, 2014, 12:54 PM
(#16)
lycowolf's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 20
Um, Mike I think you missed that the 3bet was little more than a click back. The BTN raised 3bb to 7bb,
if the blinds call or fold, MP should call with most of his range and pray that the BTN has AA and can't fold when MP hits a monster with his pocket pairs, suited connectors/gappers, and suited As, the implied odds are just too good to fold. Given my range from MP, I am almost never folding to a click-back 3bet from a fullstack, I am either calling or sometimes 4betting, depending on what I know about his 3bet percentage. (I am 4bet bluffing with all my marginal hands 100% of the time, if he's Russian)*. I think that min 3betting with any hand, is a HUGE LEAK from a fullstack against TAG and NIT fullstacks.

Also guys, the BB is not shortstacked he is HALFSTACKED, there is a major difference between the two. A halfstack plays pretty much like a fullstack, except his implied odds with pocket pairs and suited connectors is lower and he sometimes has to make commitment decisions sooner than fullstacks. GOOD shortstacks play a very
specific range, usually just folding or committing preflop. (Fish shortstacks play too wide a range with low implied odds.)

Back to this hand, I am folding and making notes on the BTN and sometimes the BB, no matter what he has, we are going to get some long term useful info on the BTN's play.

When you analyze a hand like this, I usually start with the shover. The BB had a commitment decision because with the raise, 3bet and 4bet in front of him he should never flat. With AA he should expect to get
called by the Hero almost 100% of the time if mp and btn fold. What is the BB's range for shoving here?
pretty much only AA KK QQ AKs AKo, even alot of fish throw away AQs and JJ to this action. Personally, facing
a cold 4bet, most of the time I would have folded AKs and QQ. Putting the range with AKo and QQ into pokerstove, you are actually behind 60% to 40%, but with MP and BTN folding and you having to call $1.50 to win
$4.00, it would have been an easy call. Of course that requires him to 5bet shove with AK, something many NITs and quite a few thinking players would not do here. I'd call him.

Ok now to the BTN, to start let's assume he has AA. He made one of those click-back 3bets and then loved seeing all the action behind him. Of course he wants the rest of your in the pot, but if he 6bet shoves you are folding just about everything, maybe even KK. So what can he do? given that the BB raised to half your stack, flatting might be the best play, giving you the opportunity to make a mistake, since against AA shoving or calling for half your stack are mistakes. KK has a similar problem. Folding is best since he isn't committed to the hand and he will always be behind or racing. If he can't find the fold button with AK, it is way better to reshove himself and hope you fold JJ, QQ. Since he usually doesn't flat with AK, your QQ is looking a lot like 22.
As Bhoy implies, these kinds of hands happen often enough that your instinct should be to fold every time, in cash games, unless you have very good reads on both of your opponents. I want to have notes on both that they get it allin preflop with AK and hands weaker than QQ. Also they both must be FISH or MANIACS or seriously TILTING, before I would shove. Calling is horrible, if the BTN has AK and I decide I can't fold, I want him to call my shove now. If he didn't shove preflop with AK, he is is not getting it allin on a T high flop, that's for sure.

JUST FOLD IN THESE SPOTS, you will save a lot of money.



*OK, the Russians have to have a high 3bet percentage, but don't they all?
I Just read on PokerNews, that Putin is blocking poker sites, we may lose the Russians
 
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Mon Mar 31, 2014, 03:09 PM
(#17)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
You make a good point about if villain is not folding AK then QQ is a shove, why i thought calling was better is anybody's guess. So what your saying is your 4betting so MP cant come into the hand but whats your line post flop?
 
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Mon Mar 31, 2014, 03:10 PM
(#18)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
You make a good point about if villain is not folding AK then QQ is a shove, why i thought calling was better is anybody's guess. So what your saying is your 4betting so MP cant come into the hand but whats your line post flop when the BU flats?
 
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Mon Mar 31, 2014, 03:14 PM
(#19)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Hey guys,

Interesting spot! I think one of the key learning points here is that we should have a plan when we are 4-betting, how are we going to respond to a 5-bet? Obviously we can't plan for all freak contingencies, which this would sort of fall into, but if we at least plan for the most likely ones, we can usually figure it out pretty comfortably when the freaky happens.

Here I think we should plan for the half stack fish in the BB shoving, and for all folding to the BTN and them 5-betting. I would snap it in vs. the BB, I think that's pretty trivial. The button is more tricky. Although the sample size is small, his 3B seems pretty close to his PFR, enough that this might be a default strategy for him. I think that's relevant to ranging him as he may be choosing to 3b hands like 99 and AQ instead of flatting them in position. So the question becomes, will he find some of these too big to fold facing the half stack shove? Obv AA/KK, although I think he may shove KK to "protect his hand"since tighter players feel vulnerable to the ace coming. But AA is certainly a valid concern. However I suspect he may feel JJ/TT/AK are just too strong to fold in this scenario, and decide to continue with them, while not feeling they are 6-bet shove worthy in his mind. So my inclination is to get the money in personally.

As an aside, I'm reluctant to 4b/fold QQ on 100b stacks as once we do there will be so much money in the pot... so if I feel like must in a given situation when formulating my plan, I will strongly reconsider 4-betting and and lean towards flatting the 3B.


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